Former Pa. Congressman with Dire Warning for Obama
November 30, 2011 | 8:58 PM
What are President Obama's chances in the must-win state of Pennsylvania next year? Not good, according to one longtime Keystone State Democrat.
"If the election were held today, I don't have any doubt he'd lose this district," former Rep. Paul Kanjorski told CBS News, speaking about the Scranton-centric 11th Congressional District in northeast Pennsylvania.
"And the state?" asked a reporter.
"And the state," Kanjorski said.
Both statements are jarring: Obama won the 11th District with 54 percent of the vote in 2008, and the state with 55 percent. They're indicative of how pessimistic even some Democrats are about Obama's chances next year amid national approval numbers that rarely crack45 percent.
If Obama can't win Pennsylvania, which last voted for a GOP presidential candidate in 1988, it's unlikely he'll reach the 270 electoral votes necessary for re-election. A Democratic presidential candidate hasn't won the White House while losing the Keystone State since 1948, according to CBS.
Kanjorski represented the Scranton area - where Obama visited Wednesday - 26 years before losing re-election in 2010 to Republican Lou Barletta. He knows better than most the struggles Democrats have had of late, particularly with white, working class voters who populate northeast Pennsylvania. After cruising to easy re-elections for years, Kanjorski, also beset by ethical questions, began bearing the brunt of the party's declining fortunes with blue-collar whites in 2008.
That year, he narrowly edged past Barletta, saved only by the Democratic wave brought by Obama's election. But two years later, he fell to Barletta amid a far different political climate.
Obama's struggles in Pennsylvania have even forced one formerly staunch ally, Sen. Bob Casey, who is also up for re-election next year, to keep his distance from the president, as my colleague Sean Sullivan reports.
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