Comeback for Romney? He'll Need Help
December 11, 2011 | 8:11 PM
Two early state polls released Sunday underscore how desperately Mitt Romney needs a Republican ally in his fight against Newt Gingrich.
The NBC News-Marist polls report Romney faces a steep deficit against Gingrich in South Carolina and Florida, the third and fourth states on the GOP primary calendar respectively. In South Carolina, he trails 41 to 21 percent among likely voters, the poll finds; in Florida, he's behind 42 percent to 27 percent among likely voters. Those two contests are still longer than a month away, and the numbers could change dramatically after the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. But they show how much work the former Massachusetts governor faces if he wants to catch Gingrich.
(PICTURES: Meet Team Romney)
(PICTURES: Meet Team Romney)
As significant, however, is how poorly the rest of the Republican contenders fare. No other candidate climbs above 10 percent - in fact, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum combined to garner only 14 percent of the Palmetto State's vote, or almost three times fewer than Gingrich's support. Their standing is worse in Florida, where the three Republican hopefuls combine for just 9 percent.
Gallup's national tracking poll of the Republican primary mirrors the state polls: Through Saturday, Perry's support sits at 6 percent, Bachmann's at 5 percent, and Santorum's at 2 percent.
The numbers are disappointing in their own right, especially for the former Texas governor and Minnesota congresswoman who each briefly enjoyed top-billing in the race. But most importantly, their struggles are crippling Romney's chances. After Herman Cain's collapse, Bachmann, Santorum and Perry were the three Republicans left in the race capable of attracting the party's hardline voters. Thus far, they've only continued to cede support to Gingrich.
The latest evidence came in the NBC News-Maris polls, which showed the former Georgia congressman receiving more than 50 percent of the vote among tea partiers in South Carolina and Florida. Gingrich's ability to consolidate the party's conservative wing is why he now holds a significant edge over Romney in national polls, leading him 33 percent to 23 percent in the latest Gallup poll.
Romney needs one of the three to cut into that voting bloc. That might be unlikely only three weeks before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, but Saturday night's debate did show signs they are poised for a rebound. Perry, whose debate performances have been among the worst in recent history, avoided gaffes and seemed more assured. Bachmann's "Newt Romney" turn-of-phrase was among the debate's more memorable moments, and Santorum focused better than any other candidate on social issues that still resonate in Iowa.
If Romney wants to catch Gingrich, they'll need to do more of the same.
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