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2012 Decoded Blog

2012

« 2008 presidential election | 2012 Decoded Home | Archives | Abortion »
George E. Condon Jr.

Obama At Barnard: A Speech for November, Not the Ages

By George E. Condon Jr.
May 14, 2012 | 3:28 PM
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There are times when presidents speak to the world and make history with commencement addresses. John F. Kennedy announcing the opening of test ban treaty talks at American University June 10, 1963. Lyndon B. Johnson proclaiming the Great Society at the University of Michigan May 22, 1964. Ronald Reagan rallying a generation and announcing the West will "transcend communism" as "some bizarre chapter in human history" at the University of Notre Dame May 17, 1981. Bill Clinton launching a "national conversation" about race at the University of California at San Diego June 14, 1997. And George W. Bush outlining the Bush Doctrine and telling the nation how he would conduct the war on terror at West Point June 1, 2002.

(PICTURES: Political Commencement Speeches for the Class of 2012)

Then there are times when presidents speak to constituency groups and try to make political hay; times like Monday when President Obama addressed the graduates of Barnard College in New York City.

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Tags: 

Barnard, Obama, politics, Romney, women
Jill Lawrence

Political Hardball on Mother's Day: Why Not?

By Jill Lawrence
May 13, 2012 | 2:27 PM
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It's a given that politicians will try to exploit Mother's Day. The only questions are how, and how much you can stomach. That depends on whether treacle or realpolitik is more to your taste.

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Tags: 

mother's day, presidential election
George E. Condon Jr.

Democrats and Charlotte: Far From a Perfect Match

By George E. Condon Jr.
May 10, 2012 | 1:00 PM
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Democrats who already were queasy about the site of their national convention could be excused after Tuesday's election in North Carolina if they asked, "Tell me again just why we're going to Charlotte this year?" In fact, many Democrats privately are asking exactly that after the state's voters overwhelmingly approved a measure outlawing not just same-sex marriage -- which already was illegal in North Carolina -- but also any form of civil unions. Almost immediately after the vote, more than 20,000 people signed a "move the convention" petition being pushed by a New York group called Gay Marriage USA. And Twitter accounts lit up with hundreds of angry tweets demanding the party pull out of Charlotte.

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Tags: 

Charlotte, convention, gay marriage, North Carolina, unions
Jackie Koszczuk

Romney Can't Even Get Arrested Like the Rest of Us

By Jackie Koszczuk
May 9, 2012 | 12:21 PM
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You have to feel sorry for Mitt Romney after a point. He can't even get arrested like a regular guy.

Turns out he has a rap sheet for disorderly conduct, and for your average Joe, that would mean throwing a punch in a bar, overdoing it on New Year's Eve and takin' it to the streets, or (and possibly and) getting smart with the cop who insists you were doing 50 in a 30.

None of the above for Romney. In a long-ago episode resurrected this week by the website BuzzFeed, Romney was arrested and charged with disorderly conduct in 1981 for putting his pleasure boat in the water at Lake Cochituate in Massachusetts. The crime unfolded after a park ranger told Romney to cease and desist because his boating license was not properly visible. Romney later told the Boston Globe that he felt that the license was sufficiently visible and that it was worth it to him to be fined $50 in order to enjoy the day on the lake with his family.

Romney defied the order, launched his boat, and a very ticked-off ranger reappeared and arrested him for disorderly conduct. Romney was handcuffed, taken to the Natick police station and charged. A magistrate let him go without bail. Most of us experience road rage; Romney has float rage.

 "There I was, dripping wet in a bathing suit," he told the Globe when the newspaper first reported the episode during his failed 1994 Senate race, providing a mental image it will take us years to erase.

Perhaps the lesson here is, a future Senate candidate, governor and presidential contender ought to have thought about setting a better example for the locals if not for his five kids with him that day. And if eventually he wants to win over blue-collar male voters, as Romney desperately needs to do in 2012, he ought to try establishing his bona fides in a biker bar.
Matthew Cooper

In Shadow of Lugar Defeat, Style Not Centrism is the Issue

By Matthew Cooper
May 9, 2012 | 10:39 AM
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Let's get a few things straight.

It's not like Dick Lugar got ambushed.
 
Everyone saw this coming unlike, say, the take down of Sen. Robert Bennett in Utah in 2010 or former Gov. and Rep.  Michael Castle, the mainstay of GOP politics in Delaware, losing his Republican primary to Christine O'Donnell, she of witch fame.

Richard Mourdock is no O'Donnell. He's a serious guy, a state treasurer like Mike Lee who offed Bennett and is emerging as one of the most serious legal minds in the Senate. The GOP may be moving right but it's not as seismic a shift as everyone seems to be saying this morning. After all, Lugar rarely deviated from conservative orthodoxy himself, not in any decisive way since the 1980s when he opposed Ronald Reagan's no-sanctions policy towards apartheid South Africa. Guns? Abortion? Lugar was a reliable conservative.

But he had a style that could only be called senatorial. He raised the debt ceiling, voted for omnibus legislation, worked well with colleagues and had a courtly manner that was more PBS than Drudge.

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Tags: 

bill bradley, clifford case, lugar, mitch mcconnell, Prescott Bush, tea party, trent lott
Major Garrett

Undaunted Tactics: The Strategy of Silence for Obama and Romney

By Major Garrett
May 8, 2012 | 4:03 PM
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When historian Stephen Ambrose wrote about the trek of explorers Merriwether Lewis and William Clark for water passage to Oregon across the American West, he titled the book "Undaunted Courage."

In the presidential arena, recent events have reminded even supporters of President Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney that tactics often trump courage. On gay marriage, Obama remains stuck in an amorphous limbo. Does he or does he not support gay marriage? Vice President Joe Biden does. Education Secretary, long-time Obama friend and basketball mate Arne Duncan does. Obama? Who knows. Courage? Hardly. Tactics? Yes. More on that in a moment.

Does Romney believe Obama should be "tried for treason" as a questioner and apparent supporter said Monday in Ohio? No one at the event knows because Romney said nothing in the face of this pretty aggressive charge. Courageous? Nope. Tactical. Through and through.

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Tags: 

1994, Arne Duncan, Biden, Bill Clinton, Don't Ask, Don't Tell, Edward Kennedy, Gallup, gay marriage, Jay Carney, Obama, Ohio, Romney, Senate campaign, treason, vice president
Matthew Cooper

Will Romney Pick a Businessperson Instead of a Pol?

By Matthew Cooper
May 7, 2012 | 3:11 PM
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I don't know who Mitt Romney will select as his vice presidential nominee. I do know that the media is speculating about the likes of Sen. Rob Portman who is the current it-boy now that Sen. Marco Rubio seems to have faded. Of course, any Republican with an Hispanic surname seems to be under consideration, too. 

As long as we're speculating, I can offer a few reasons why it won't be a politician at all. 

1. What good would it do to pick a pol? They don't really bring in their home states. And in the 21st century candidates have wisely eschewed this idea which is why we've had three veeps from states with three electoral votes--Cheney, Biden, and Palin. Michael Dukakis picked Lloyd Bentsen in part in the hope of winning Texas. Uh, not so much. The days of a veep pulling in a state are over. 

2. Does Romney really believe you need to be a pol to be president? In his heart does Mitt Romney, the one-term governor of Massachusetts, really believe that you need to have served in a state house or Congress to be a good president? I doubt it. If he seems to believe in one thing--and that's a big if--it's effective executives, to paraphrase Peter Drucker. I think he's just as likely to look at a CEO or someone in the military as a pol. Who? His old Bain pal Meg Whitman would have been his style had she not been a hapless campaigner and pro-choice in a party that doesn't like that in their nominees. My guess is that the Romney pick is a CEO somewhere in his FEC filings because Romney likes loyalty. 

3. A CEO is a long ball, which will help. If it's August and Romney is still far enough behind on the electoral map, a long ball move like a CEO might shake up the race. Of course, it'll be a vetted, not-Sarah Palin pick. Romney, the MBA, the Bainiac, is not going to repeat the no-analysis follies of the McCain campaign. There will be decision trees and PowerPoints, thinking and analyzing, before Romney settles on a business partner--with emphasis on the word business. 
Jill Lawrence

Team Obama's Prescription: Daily Dose of Hardball Video

By Jill Lawrence
May 2, 2012 | 3:57 PM
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It's not our imagination. For seven of the last eight days, the Obama re-election campaign has been out with a new video or TV ad, all but one going hard after Mitt Romney. Spokesman Ben LaBolt says the Obama campaign is merely picking up a torch that had been carried by the Democratic National Committee, and he's not sure if the near-daily releases will continue. "We roll with the news cycle," he said in an email.

It's hard to imagine enough news - or enough Romney gaffes - to fuel the current blistering pace for the next six months. There's also the question of whether that would be productive for Obama over the long run. Does he want to live up to charges by Romney and the GOP that he's running a relentlessly negative campaign?

In the short term, you'd think Democrats would be heartened by Obama's aggressive moves, just as Republicans were happy to see that Romney could be ruthless when necessary toward his primary opponents. Obama's timing is good, too - early enough to help frame what could be a close race.

Not to dump on John Kerry and his 2004 campaign, but he locked up the Democratic nomination early in March and then ceded the airwaves for nearly two months. Although the Massachusetts senator was virtually unknown outside of early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, Kerry's aides pooh-poohed the idea that immediate ads were needed to introduce him to the country. The upshot: He was a blank slate for Bush and his allies to write on. They wrote up a storm, defining Kerry in TV ads as a weak-on-defense flip-flopper while the Kerry campaign, perhaps fatefully, bided its time.

When it comes to defining Romney, Obama had a big assist from Romney's rivals in the lengthy and closely followed Republican nomination race. Even so, he's leaving nothing to chance. Here's what we're in for if the rest of the year is anything like the past week:

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Tags: 

presidential campaign
George E. Condon Jr.

Political Boost From Bin Laden Not Clear

By George E. Condon Jr.
May 1, 2012 | 11:39 AM
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There is something missing in the current discussion about President Obama's political use of the killing of Osama bin Laden. So much of the debate has been about whether there is something unseemly about this. As if he is the first president to try to ride the coattails of a military or foreign policy success all the way to an election win. Yes, the White House hopes to find votes in the successful apprehension of the mastermind of the attacks that killed thousands of Americans on Sept. 11, 2001. And, yes, they will raise questions about how a President Mitt Romney might not have risen to the occasion.

(PICTURES: Bin Laden's Compound | After the Raid | One Year Later ) 

But Obama is no different from any of his predecessors in this. Certainly, Harry Truman in 1948 reminded voters that he was commander in chief when Hitler and
Tojo fell. And George W. Bush's campaign was not at all subtle about using 9-11 for political ends in the 2002 and 2004 elections. His chief strategist, Karl Rove, even boasted of it in a January 2002 address to a Republican luncheon in Austin. "We can go to the country on this issue because they trust the Republican Party to do a better job protecting and strengthening America's military might and thereby protecting America," he said. "Americans trust the Republicans to do a better job of keeping our communities and our families safe."

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Tags: 

bin Laden, Bush, economy, Obama, Romney, war
Jackie Koszczuk

Obama's Loving the War on Women

By Jackie Koszczuk
April 27, 2012 | 7:57 PM
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Sometime in the late 1990s, House Speaker John Boehner, then chairman of the House GOP Conference, shared with me one of his top political rules of thumb during a cigarette break in the Speaker's Lobby just off the House floor. Explaining why Republicans had been unusually mum during a debate the Democrats were in the process of losing, Boehner said, "Never attack your opponent when he's in the process of committing suicide."

It made a lot of sense at the time, but it clearly won't be the guiding principle in the 2012 presidential campaign, which is shaping up to be quite a nasty affair.
 
After Republicans committed multiple rhetorical blunders on women's health issues recently, President Obama had a rubbing-it-in fest when he addressed a group of several hundred politically active women on Friday. The GOP's position against requiring coverage of contraception in health plans was especially "illuminating," Obama told the Women's Leadership Forum in Washington, D.C. "It was like being in a time machine," he quipped.

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George E. Condon Jr.

'Old Thinking' Makes for Easier Convention Financing

By George E. Condon Jr.
April 25, 2012 | 4:12 PM
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Sometimes there is very little reward for trying to do things differently. That is especially true when a political party tries to lessen the influence of money in campaigns as the Democrats are trying to do as they plan for their national convention in Charlotte. The latest reminder of that is a report by Bloomberg News that convention organizers are struggling to hit their fundraising goals because President Obama has decreed that no money can be accepted from corporations or lobbyists and that individual contributions must be capped at $250,000. Democrats are trying to raise $36.65 million and, only four months before the convention opens, Bloomberg has them only halfway to the goal.

That is why labor leaders, who contributed more than $8 million to the 2008 convention, were nudged on Monday to get more involved this year. A convention official confirmed that the leaders, representing all the major unions, were given a tour of the convention venues. Afterwards "they had a lot of questions, including questions about fund-raising," said the official, who asked not to be named. "But," insisted the official, "there was no direct ask." That meshes with a labor source who told my colleague, Alex Roarty, that he was unaware of any specific request. But no matter how gently Democrats make their pitch, it is going to be a tough sell. The labor movement is more interested in building a ground game for the 2012 election than in funding big-ticket events like the convention.

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Tags: 

Convention; fundraising; Obama; labor
Reid Wilson

Toward A More Perfect Primary Rulebook

By Reid Wilson
April 20, 2012 | 4:49 PM
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SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Crafting a presidential nominating process is a delicate task, a balancing act between a rushed primary in which the candidate with the most money delivers an early knockout and a long, drawn-out fight that saps resources and sows discontent. At the close of a contest that skewed toward the bloodier side, members of the Republican National Committee are trying again to find the right balance.

The party's goals are two-fold: They want their nominating process to test their candidate without inflicting fatal wounds, and they want to allow enough time for the best possible candidate to rise to the top. After a years-long process to reform the system that concluded last summer, Republicans thought they had their solution -- four states would hold early contests, and any state that violated the agreed-upon calendar would face stiff penalties.

But, as it turns out, the incentive to hold contests early in the process, and thereby have a bigger influence in the process, outweighed the threat of losing half of a delegation. By the time the process concluded, five states violated party rules by moving their contests ahead of their allotted space on the calendar.

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Alex Roarty

Was Obama's 'Silver Spoon' Remark Aimed At Romney?

By Alex Roarty
April 19, 2012 | 5:30 PM
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Did he or didn't he? President Obama seemed to implicitly take a shot at Mitt Romney's privileged upbringing when, speaking of his own childhood at a campaign event Wednesday, he said he "wasn't born with a silver spoon in my mouth."

His press secretary, Jay Carney, said Thursday that anybody suggesting so was "oversensitive," and the Huffington Post reported that Obama has used the phrase before.

The remark could have been a response to the refrain of Romney and other Republicans that Obama is out of touch with people who are losing jobs and homes.But Romney certainly interpreted it as an obvious attack on his background, arguing that the president was attacking his father George's success while looking to blame others for his own failures.

The moment highlights tricky rhetorical ground for the president.

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Tags: 

presidential campaign
Jackie Koszczuk

What Hilary Rosen Wishes She Had Said

By Jackie Koszczuk
April 12, 2012 | 9:25 PM
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Step on board the 2012 time machine. First, we're debating whether women should have combat roles, next, whether they should have unfettered access to birth control and now, whether they really "work" if they shun the traditional workforce to stay at home to raise children. But, as I was reaching into the back of my closet to see if I could my locate my old white bell-bottoms and the jacket with the Indian fringe on the sleeves, it dawned that this newest political hot button - touched off by Democratic operative Hilary Rosen's comment that Ann Romney "hasn't worked a day in her life" - is not the 1970s throwback that it appears to be at first blush.

During the daylong fallout from Rosen's remark, Salon's Joan Walsh was among the commentators wondering aloud why we are once again this election season debating a question that has been asked and answered decisively since the feminist movement radically altered working lives for both sexes. But, on reflection, the quandary of work-versus-home touches a nerve for women that is still quite raw in some ways, despite three bygone decades of well-intentioned government actions intended to guarantee a level playing field of choice.

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Jill Lawrence

Romney's Long-Odds Looking-Glass Strategy

By Jill Lawrence
April 11, 2012 | 6:20 PM
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Out of touch, waging a war on women, pursuing an "alarming" foreign policy, trying to "end Medicare as we know it."

President Obama must feel like he's gone through the looking glass to hear Mitt Romney leveling those charges against him -- after all, Romney is the former CEO with the $200 million fortune, whose party erupted in debate this year over the merits of contraception, prenatal testing and forced ultrasounds, whose hawkish foreign policy views include a threat to invade Iran, and who has endorsed conservative proposals to change Medicare from a government health program to one based on private insurance.

The script in these early days of the 2012 general election campaign carries echoes of 2004. Think George W. Bush -- who snagged a coveted spot in the National Guard rather than go to Vietnam -- winning reelection in part because his allies used Democrat John Kerry's military service to eviscerate his character. Kerry volunteered to serve in Vietnam and was respected for it until the well financed "Swiftboat Veterans for Truth" came along and wrote the definitive chapter on how to turn your opponent's strength into a fatal vulnerability -- even if your own record on the same subject is weaker.

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Tags: 

presidential campaign
Michael Hirsh

The Obama Game Plan: I'm Barack, He's Barry

By Michael Hirsh
April 11, 2012 | 9:25 AM
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Rick Santorum went from being an annoyance to an afterthought in a matter of hours yesterday, but Mitt Romney, the GOP's newly anointed standard bearer, had no time at all to savor the culmination of his four-year campaign for the Republican nomination. Because down in Florida, President Obama launched a general-election broadside against the GOP that revealed in stark outlines what his emerging strategy will be. And Romney had better start rebutting it fast.


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Tags: 

presidential campaign
Ronald Brownstein

Huge Gender Gap Powers Obama Lead Over Romney

By Ronald Brownstein
April 10, 2012 | 10:53 AM
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Another new national poll confirms that President Obama's lead over Mitt Romney is now powered largely by an overwhelming preference for the president among socially-liberal, well-educated women.

The ABC/Washington Post survey released Wednesday showed Obama leading Romney overall by 51 percent to 44 percent among registered voters, which replicates his margin of victory in 2008 over John McCain.

Like national, swing state, and state polls released last week, the ABC/Post poll found that Obama was benefiting from a huge gender gap: overall he led Romney among women by 19 percentage points, while trailing among men by eight points. But, as in those earlier surveys, the president's advantage did not extend to all women.

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Tags: 

gender gap, Obama, Romney, women
George E. Condon Jr.

Women's Votes Demand More Jobs Than Rhetoric

By George E. Condon Jr.
April 6, 2012 | 1:05 PM
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For all the recent talk about contraception, Planned Parenthood, country club memberships and even caterpillars, President Obama centered his pitch to women Friday on the one thing that may make the biggest difference in their voting decisions this year -- the economy. It is why he summoned women to the White House and why he called the gathering the White House Forum on Women and the Economy.

Other issues got mentions, including violence against women, health reform, and -- drawing laughs -- his confession that "we haven't gotten on the dry cleaning thing yet," an acknowledgement of the leading pet peeve of many women who object to paying more to clean their clothes than men pay for theirs. But this was a day for what Bill Clinton used to boast was a "laser focus" on jobs and the economy. "Right now," said the president, "no issue is more important than restoring economic security for our families in the wake of the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression."

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Tags: 

Campaign, Jobs, Obama, Romney, Women
John Aloysius Farrell

Nikki Haley Defends Her Guys From That Bully Barack Obama

By John Aloysius Farrell
April 5, 2012 | 2:43 PM
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Frailty and timidity are not the qualities that come to mind when one thinks of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. Or House Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin. Or Mitt Romney. These are tough guys, veterans of the political wars, and more than capable of defending themselves.

So what possibly spurred South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, in Washington to promote her new autobiography, to think that Scalia and the others are woeful victims, needing protection from a "bully" in the White House?

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Tags: 

Antonin Scalia, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Nikki Haley, Paul Ryan, Supreme Court, Vice President
George E. Condon Jr.

Not so Fast on Ryan Comparisons to Newt

By George E. Condon Jr.
April 4, 2012 | 5:05 PM
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In the middle of a particularly contentious daily briefing Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney confessed that "I keep getting throwbacks to the 1990s." Especially on a day when he was getting beat up by reporters pressing him to explain President Obama's less-than-precise comments about the Supreme Court, Carney could be excused for wanting to transport himself to another era. But for many Democrats, the urge to harken back to 1996 is a strong one. That was, after all, the last time a Democratic president ran for a second term and Bill Clinton's easy victory is still a pleasant memory for the party.

That nostalgia for 1996 helps explain why so many Democrats are delighted at the president's full-throated attack on Rep. Paul Ryan's Republican budget. The attack came before an influential audience of newspaper editors and publishers on Tuesday. As Michael Hirsh writes,  the effort to link likely GOP nominee Mitt Romney to Ryan and his controversial budget is, indeed, reminiscent of Clinton's successful campaign in 1996 to tie that year's nominee, Sen. Robert Dole, to the incendiary House Speaker of the day, Newt Gingrich.

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Tags: 

Clinton, Gingrich, Obama, Romney, Ryan
Jill Lawrence

Foreign Policy at Jelly Belly: Santorum Mystery Solved

By Jill Lawrence
March 29, 2012 | 12:53 PM
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At first glance, it seemed so incongruous that it couldn't possibly be intentional: The schedule for Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum said he was going to give a "major" foreign policy address at The Jelly Belly Candy Co.

But huh turned to duh after a little sleuthing.

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Tags: 

Republican presidential race
George E. Condon Jr.

Biden in Iowa: Republicans 'Scoff' At Manufacturing

By George E. Condon Jr.
March 28, 2012 | 5:13 PM
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Vice President Joe Biden's speech in Iowa on Wednesday was more than a full-throated attack on Republican Mitt Romney's economic policies. It was also the latest indication that the Obama campaign intends to champion its manufacturing policies in battleground states in the Midwest, inviting voters, as Biden did Wednesday, to compare the president's program to what it casts as the likely Republican nominee's downplaying of manufacturing as a key part of America's economic recovery.

Biden pointedly quoted the Wall Street Journal, a newspaper rarely cited by Democrats, as stating, "Romney appeared to scoff, first in Detroit, then in Florida, at the notion of manufacturing as a job engine for the future." That, Biden said, sets up what he called the "choice in this election" between "our philosophy that believes manufacturing is central to our economy, and their philosophy that scoffs at it."

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Tags: 

Biden, campaign, Iowa, manufacturing, Romney
Jill Lawrence

The Public's Inch-Deep Hate Affair With the Individual Mandate

By Jill Lawrence
March 27, 2012 | 4:42 PM
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Maybe the individual mandate is doomed, as an agitated-slash-celebratory Twitterverse seemed convinced after conservative Supreme Court justices posed challenging questions about it (shocking!) on the second day of arguments on the Affordable Care Act. If the justices vote later this year to kill it, with the possibility that the whole law will collapse as a result, Republicans would be vindicated in their fight against "big government." But in practical terms, would the country really know what it has lost?

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Tags: 

Health care
Major Garrett

Obama Plays the Long Game on Gas Prices

By Major Garrett
March 21, 2012 | 4:45 PM
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For the White House, the current gas prices wars are not about today's poll numbers. That's a losing proposition and top officials know it. When you're the "in" party when gas prices rise, you suffer. President Bush did in 2008 and so, by extension, did John McCain. When you're the "out" party, you pounce. That's what Sen. Barack Obama did before the Indiana primary against Hillary Clinton in 2008.

White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer told me he's lived through five previous election cycles where the "ins" and "outs" on gas prices traded places and traded blows. "It follows a very predictable pattern," Pfeiffer said.

The pattern, said Pfeiffer -- who handled communications for Sen. Tom Daschle, D-S.D. and Evan Bayh, D-Indiana, before working for Obama - goes like this: prices rise, local TV reporters do live-shots in front gas pumps, politicians give speeches in front of gas pumps, talk shows debate the issue and then, eventually, prices drop back down and the issue is forgotten....well before Election Day. "By the time people vote, it's all gone away."

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Tags: 

2008, Boehner, Bush, Dan Pfeiffer, Election Day, Farce, gambling, gas prices, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Keystone XL, Nevada, Obama, poll numbers, Solyndra, White House
John Aloysius Farrell

Will the Etch A Sketch Gaffe Bloody Mitt Romney?

By John Aloysius Farrell
March 21, 2012 | 3:00 PM
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Mitt Romney's persuasive victory in the Illinois primary Tuesday night got me thinking of Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond, who overcame a slow start last summer and finished the season with a burst of offensive power.

"To fight through that...that's what a big leaguer does," Desmond told the Washington Post, when asked about his early season slump.

Buckling down, keeping your head, making the effort, grinding it out. That is what big leaguers do - in baseball and in politics.

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Tags: 

etch-a-sketch, Illinois primary, mitt romney, presidential campaign, Republican
Jackie Koszczuk

Santorum Learns to Love Math in Missouri

By Jackie Koszczuk
March 17, 2012 | 3:14 PM
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Mitt Romney is no longer the only candidate who cares deeply about delegate math apparently. Rival Rick Santorum dropped into Missouri today to greet Republicans taking part in the state's weirdly arcane delegate-selection process, which seems to have as many steps as the Washington Monument.

The caucus process lasts over several weeks and will produce no results until June, when the party should already be far along in settling on a presidential nominee. And yet there was the  primary underdog, hopscotching to multiple caucus sites Saturday in search of hands to shake.

"We've got some new delegate math that we're going to be putting out that shows this race is a lot different than what the consensus is," Santorum told a group of caucus goers at the Ballwin, Mo. police station. "We're looking at the rules, we're looking at how things are stacking up, and we're in much better shape in these caucuses and some of these apportioned states or winner-take-all states, which in fact are not winner-take-all states. We're in this fight. We're going to be in it until the end.  We're going to win."

With that, Santorum proved that political pitches based on delegate math are uninspiring no matter which candidate is doing the pitching.

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Ronald Brownstein

Obama's Key Groups Warming on the Economy

By Ronald Brownstein
March 16, 2012 | 2:05 PM
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In a trend with important implications for the presidential election, the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll released today shows President Obama's strongest groups in the electorate expressing the most optimism about the trajectory of the economy.

In the survey, both minorities and college-educated white voters were much more likely than working-class whites to say that they anticipate the economy will improve over the next year. Those well-educated whites are now also much more likely than their blue-collar counterparts to describe their current financial situation as excellent or good.

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Ronald Brownstein

Santorum's Twin Wins Deepen the Grooves in Divided GOP Race

By Ronald Brownstein
March 14, 2012 | 11:17 AM
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Rick Santorum's twin victories in Alabama and Mississippi Tuesday night did more to reaffirm than realign the basic patterns of support driving the GOP presidential race. 

The narrow wins of his opponent underscored front-runner Mitt Romney's inability to expand beyond his base of support in the GOP's upscale managerial wing. But the results also highlighted the durable limits of Santorum's support beyond his core constituency of evangelical Christians. Indeed, the close races in both states did as much to highlight the weaknesses as strengths of both of the leading contenders.

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Major Garrett

On Nightmare Night for Romney, Obama Still Sees Mitt's Ghost

By Major Garrett
March 13, 2012 | 10:52 PM
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In what may be a first in presidential politics, Mitt Romney's campaign is now raising money off a fund-raising appeal from President Obama's re-election campaign.

It's an odd choice under any circumstance, odder still in the context of Romney's losses in Mississippi and Alabama.

Obama campaign manager Jim Messina, a political professional to be sure, may not be the most persuasive voice for Republican voters sifting their nominee choices. Even so, Romney's campaign, troubled by the persistent dissatisfaction of conservative Republicans, channeled Messina's message last night that Romney is a legitimate threat to Obama.


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Republican nomination race
George E. Condon Jr.

Cameron Visit Seen as Gift to Obama Reelection Campaign

By George E. Condon Jr.
March 13, 2012 | 3:18 PM
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Foreign leaders always strive to appear neutral in American elections. But sometimes their actions betray their real feelings. That may be the case with the visit this week by British Prime Minister David Cameron. Much to the consternation of conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic, Cameron seems to be siding with President Barack Obama, despite a pretty rocky start to the incumbent's stewardship of the famed "special relationship" between the two longtime allies.

When he first took office, Obama horrified many Brits as well as the sizeable number of Anglophiles in the former colonies when he redecorated the Oval Office. In came a bust of Abraham Lincoln; out went the bust of Winston Churchill that had been loaned to President George W. Bush as a sign of trans-atlantic solidarity after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Then Obama further dismayed the British when the White House fumbled something as simple as the gifts given to then-Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Almost as if an aide had rushed out to Walmart at the last minute, the president gave Brown a box set of DVDs - of a format that made them unusable in London.

It is not known what gift Obama will give Cameron on Wednesday. But it is not too early to conclude that the visit itself is a gift to an Obama reelection team that would like to portray the president's first term as a foreign policy highlight reel. Cameron, though he confesses to ignorance about basketball, readily agreed to let the president drag him to an NCAA tournament basketball game, which just happens to be in the center of the battleground state of Ohio. The tradeoff for Cameron is being able to claim that he is the first world leader invited to share a ride on Air Force One with Obama.

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basketball, Boehner, Cameron, Obama, Ohio, UK
Jill Lawrence

Romney's Good Friends Own Football Teams, Too

By Jill Lawrence
March 12, 2012 | 9:36 PM
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Newsflash: Some of Mitt Romney's good friends own football teams.

That's in addition to his great friends who own NASCAR teams.

The rich are different from you and me. Apparently they have lots of friends who own sports teams -- something most people probably never thought about until Romney's presidential campaign.

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Republican presidential race
Jill Lawrence

Romney Gets His Bare-Chested Pecs-On-the-Beach Moment

By Jill Lawrence
March 12, 2012 | 1:38 PM
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Remember that photo of Barack Obama in a bathing suit? Of course you do. Well move over, Mr. President. We now have photos of Mitt Romney at ease on the beach and in the pool.

Buzzfeed has reprinted photos of Romney "at leisure" in a bathing suit, a dive suit, shorts and jeans. The photos of Romney en famille come from a blog written by one of his daughters-in-law, which Buzzfeed says has now gone private.

But why?

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Republican presidential race
Jackie Koszczuk

Santorum's Delegate Hunt: He's No Hillary Clinton

By Jackie Koszczuk
March 11, 2012 | 12:22 PM
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Rick Santorum "won big" in Kansas on Saturday as the newspaper headlines today suggest, but the contest for the Republican primary is now all about delegate math, and in that arena, Santorum is still losing, and losing big.

In a sense, the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania did little more than run in place as a result of yesterday's voting. While Santorum won Kansas with 51 percent of the vote and likely picked up 32 of 40 delegates at stake there, Mitt Romney was quietly tallying up a slightly greater number of delegates - an estimated 38 - in little noticed contests in Wyoming and the territories of Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Northern Mariana Islands.

At the end of the day, Romney was still outpacing his nearest rival by better than 2-to-1 in total delegates, with the front-runner at 454 and Santorum at 217. (Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was way behind at 107, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas was way, way behind at 47.) That means that at this point in the season, Romney has racked up 39.6 percent of the necessary 1,144 delegates to claim the nomination, while Santorum has just 19 percent.

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Jill Lawrence

Romney Could Win His 'Away Game' in the South

By Jill Lawrence
March 9, 2012 | 1:29 PM
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The expectations game is starting all over again for Mitt Romney. A wave of new polls shows the former Massachusetts governor is in the hunt to win Republican presidential primaries Tuesday in Mississippi, Alabama or both.

We've seen this movie before, just last week when it seemed Romney might pull off a counter-intuitive victory in Tennessee. Instead, he barely squeaked by in must-win Ohio -- and the night didn't seem quite so triumphant.

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Republican presidential race
Jill Lawrence

Republicans and the Latino Vote: Next Stop, Negative Numbers?

By Jill Lawrence
March 9, 2012 | 12:36 PM
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Question: How deep can Republicans dig themselves into a hole on the Latino vote? Answer: Not much deeper without getting into negative numbers.

A new Fox News Latino poll of 1,200 likely Latino voters shows no Republican candidate winning more than 14 percent against President Obama in hypothetical match-ups. That's less than half of the 31 percent that Sen. John McCain won against Obama in the 2008 White House race.

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Republican presidential race
George E. Condon Jr.

Conservatives Cite Bill Maher, Charge White House Hypocrisy

By George E. Condon Jr.
March 8, 2012 | 5:17 PM
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After a week of watching Rush Limbaugh under fire from both women and sponsors, conservatives are trying to change the subject. Or, at the least, make Democrats squirm and answer to the charge of hypocrisy. Their target is comedian Bill Maher, an outspoken liberal comedian who over the years has delighted in outrageous and controversial remarks about religion, politics and conservatives, particularly conservative women such as Sarah Palin and Christine O'Donnell.

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Bill Maher, conservatives, Limbaugh, Obama, women
Ronald Brownstein

The Bucket List: Why Older Whites Are Dominating the GOP Primaries

By Ronald Brownstein
March 7, 2012 | 11:37 AM
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White and gray.

That's the clear pattern for turnout in the Republican presidential race over its first two months.
 
After Super Tuesday, exit polls have now been conducted in 14 states from all regions of the country. In all 14 of those states, white voters, and voters over 50, both comprised a significantly larger share of the electorate in this year's GOP primary than they did in the 2008 general election. In many cases, the gap on each front has been enormous.

These patterns underscore the extent to which the modern GOP coalition revolves around white voters-and increasingly, as the graying baby boom moves right, older white voters. 

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Jackie Koszczuk

Virginia's Message for Mitt Romney

By Jackie Koszczuk
March 7, 2012 | 12:23 AM
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Virginia's role on Super Tuesday was largely ignored on the basis that there was no real contest there - Mitt Romney faced neither his biggest rival for the nomination, Rick Santorum, nor his Southern regional nemesis, Newt Gingrich. Weak organization kept both Santorum and Gingrich from qualifying for the ballot.

But the exit polls for Virginia are more revealing than the lopsided win for Romney indicates. They show Romney being forced to share roughly 40 percent of the Republican primary vote with Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, the fourth candidate in the race who has virtually no chance of winning the nomination.

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John Aloysius Farrell

Those Who Know Romney Love Him Best

By John Aloysius Farrell
March 6, 2012 | 8:22 PM
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The independent-minded Republican voters of Massachusetts stuck by their guy Tuesday. And in the network exit polls, we got a glimpse of the voters who launched Mitt Romney's presidential hopes by electing him their governor.

They don't much like the mandatory health care law he signed into law. That is interesting. Some 48 percent of the voters in the GOP primary said that Romneycare went too far.

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Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Super Tuesday, Tea Party, Vermont
Jackie Koszczuk

Obama and Romney -- and Their Tin Ears

By Jackie Koszczuk
March 6, 2012 | 7:51 PM
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The typically fast-on-his-feet president showed on Tuesday that he can have as large a tin ear as Mitt Romney at times, which has to be reassuring for the likely Republican challenger, who struggles with the extemporaneous aspects of political life.

In response to a question at a White House press conference about whether he purposely wanted gas prices to go up to wean Americans off fossil fuels, Obama offered an answer from his political playbook -- before recovering and offering a second response from the "Message: I care" playbook.

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Major Garrett

Two Sets of GOP Voters: Rationals and Notionals

By Major Garrett
March 6, 2012 | 8:24 AM
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There is a way to think about the up-and-down GOP nomination fight that at least partially explains its volatility and the seemingly endless array of short-lived challengers to front-runner Mitt Romney as well as Romney's surprising resilience.

It's been the battle between the rationals and the notionals.

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George E. Condon Jr.

Obama Press Conference to Cut Into GOP Headlines

By George E. Condon Jr.
March 5, 2012 | 5:02 PM
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Three senior administration officials just laughed when asked if they had decided to schedule a President Obama press conference for Tuesday to insert the White House into a busy news day that otherwise was guaranteed to be dominated by Republicans fighting for delegates in ten states. Noting - accurately - that reporters had been lobbying for an Obama press conference, they insisted that the scheduling just worked well for Tuesday.

Regardless of the motivation, putting the president out for a long give-and-take that will be carried live on multiple television channels does serve the purpose of pushing the Republicans aside, if only for an hour. This comes only a week after the White House worked to have the president break through the Republican news focus last Tuesday as well, with a fiery campaign-style speech to a gathering of United Auto Workers at the same time Republican voters were going to the polls in Michigan.

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Obama press conference, Super Tuesday
Ronald Brownstein

The Cost of Romney's Success

By Ronald Brownstein
March 5, 2012 | 1:45 PM
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The new NBC/Wall Street Journal national survey released Monday, like the NBC/Marist polls released yesterday in the key swing states of Ohio and Virginia, quantify the broad sense in both parties that Mitt Romney's slog toward the GOP nomination has come at a palpable price for November.

In the NBC/WSJ survey, Obama held a 50 percent to 43 percent advantage over Romney nationally, up from a 47 percent to 44 percent lead in the average of the news organizations' polls during the second half of 2011, just before the voting began in the Republican race. What's especially striking about the new survey is that it shows Obama has made his biggest gains among the group that has consistently resisted him the most: white voters without a college education. 

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John Aloysius Farrell

Cantor and the GOP Need Romney to Close the Deal

By John Aloysius Farrell
March 4, 2012 | 11:51 AM
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House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's decision to endorse Mitt Romney is a certified big deal. The Virginia Republican is no highborn member of the Washington establishment - he's the GOP House leader with the closest ties to the Tea Party movement and the huge group of representatives it elected in 2010.

This was no snow-maned party elder backing Romney on national television - it was a conservative young gun.

Why Romney? Why now? Cantor said on NBC's Meet the Press that Romney's "bold pro-growth, pro-jobs plan for the future" is what sold him. According to Cantor's aides, Romney's comprehensive detailing of his economic proposals showed the majority leader how much the two men had in common. They spoke on the telephone last week, and then there was Cantor on Sunday morning, telling the world that he has cast his Virginia primary ballot for Mitt.

But then there is this: Cantor knows that the Republican House majority, which he's accountable for preserving, will be far more secure if the GOP can wrap up its divisive primary season and fall in line behind the presidential nominee.

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Eric Cantor, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Obama, presidential race, Republican Party, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Tea Party
Jill Lawrence

Romney the Inevitable: A Back to the Future GOP Moment

By Jill Lawrence
March 3, 2012 | 10:50 PM
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It's probably foolhardy to even think it, much less say it, but Mitt Romney's win in Washington state's caucus preference poll feels like it could be the beginning of the end of the Republican nomination race.

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Republican nomination race
Jill Lawrence

Do Santorum's Organizing Failures Matter?

By Jill Lawrence
March 3, 2012 | 3:21 PM
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If you want evidence of the difference between the Romney and Santorum presidential campaigns, just look how fast Team Romney jumped on Rick Santorum's paperwork problems in Ohio and lumped them with his failure to get on ballots in Virginia and Washington, D.C.

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Republican nomination race
John Aloysius Farrell

Did the Conservative Supreme Court Douse Romney's Hopes to be President?

By John Aloysius Farrell
March 1, 2012 | 12:58 PM
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American politics is generous with ironies. But here's one to savor. Our Wild West campaign finance system - deregulated by the conservative bloc on the U.S. Supreme Court and embraced by Republicans for both ideological and strategic reasons - may be dousing the party's hopes to win the White House.

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Barack Obama, campaign finance, Citizens United, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul
Ron Fournier

Romney's Next Challenge: Don't 'Win Himself to Death'

By Ron Fournier
February 28, 2012 | 11:14 PM
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In the dark hours of World War II, surging German troops rode their grinding tanks across hundreds of miles of Russian territory, suffering precious loss of life and time with every mile gained. A division commander wrote of the importance of reducing losses "if we do not intend to win ourselves to death."


That admonition, revealed in the Max Hastings book Inferno, applies to presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Despite victories Tuesday night in Michigan and Arizona, twin killings that put him back on the glide path to the GOP presidential nomination, the former Massachusetts governor is winning himself to death.

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Republican nomination race
George E. Condon Jr.

Obama's Fiery UAW Pitch Will Be Heard Again

By George E. Condon Jr.
February 28, 2012 | 4:20 PM
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Until now, President Obama has been testing his reelection themes off-Broadway, in fund-raising appeals to small groups of supporters and in policy speeches in places like Kansas. The official story has been that the real political pitches would have to wait until the Republican nominee is selected. Or, as the president joked to Jay Leno, "I'm going to wait until everybody is voted off the island. Once they narrow it down to one or two, I'll start paying attention."  

But with Tuesday's fiery address to the United Auto Workers convention, it became clear that the president has been paying attention to the Republican race. And he's not about to pass on the opportunity to pounce when one of those remaining Republicans is vulnerable on an important issue. By any measure, it is clear today that Mitt Romney made a political mistake when he wrote his famous "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" piece for the New York Times Nov. 18, 2008. It seemed harsh at the time and only looks worse now that the U.S. auto industry is thriving and back on its feet after a government rescue. And his attempts to explain his position before the Michigan primary were, at best, tortured.

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autos, Detroit, Michigan, Obama, Romney, UAW
Alex Roarty

Why Rick Santorum Keeps Fighting the Culture Wars

By Alex Roarty
February 27, 2012 | 1:26 PM
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Rick Santorum's charge into the breach of the culture war isn't easy to understand, at least at first. Voters are more worried about finding a job than debating moral decline, and the former Pennsylvania senator's intense contributions to the social-issue debate -- often laced with controversial, headline-grabbing rhetoric -- appear disconnected from those concerns.

Yet, those close to Santorum argue that his refusal to back down from the culture war, despite the protestations of many GOP strategists who fear it will alienate the political middle, isn't indicative of a candidate who can't help himself. Rather, the charged rhetoric is part of a calculated effort by the ex-senator and his team, born of principle and politics, to convince conservatives he's an authentic member of their movement.

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Republican nomination race
Ronald Brownstein

Tennessee Also Shows Santorum's Populist Opportunity

By Ronald Brownstein
February 27, 2012 | 12:33 PM
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A new poll in Tennessee underscores the stakes for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in tomorrow's Michigan primary.

Like the Quinnipiac University Ohio survey released on Monday, the Vanderbilt Poll showed Santorum marshaling powerful support in Tennessee from the key elements in the GOP's populist wing- particularly tea party supporters and evangelical Christians, while remaining competitive with (or even leading) Romney among more managerial voters. Tennessee, along with Oklahoma and Georgia, loom as, in effect, the top second-tier of contests on March 6, behind Ohio, which is likely to hold center stage on that day. With polls in the GOP race gyrating wildly all year, the results in Michigan are likely to cast a long shadow over those contests.

The Tennessee survey, conducted from February 16 to 22 for Vanderbilt University's Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, showed Santorum leading Romney overall by a resounding 38 percent to 20 percent, with Ron Paul (15 percent) and Newt Gingrich (13 percent) lagging. Santorum's lead is grounded in big advantages among groups at the GOP's ideological vanguard. Three-fourths of Tennessee voters in the survey identified as born-again Christians and they prefer Santorum over Romney by 39 percent to 15 percent. Among the nearly two-thirds of likely primary voters who say they support the tea party's ideas, Santorum led Romney even more decisively-43 percent to 13 percent.

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Jill Lawrence

The Republican War of Words on College

By Jill Lawrence
February 26, 2012 | 5:16 PM
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First came Mitt Romney's dismissive remarks about President Obama's "faculty lounge" pals. Now Rick Santorum is calling Obama snobby for urging people to go to college - and defending that view in a series of TV appearances.

"There are lot of people in this country that have no desire or no aspiration to go to college, because they have a different set of skills and desires and dreams that don't include college," Santorum said Sunday on ABC's This Week. "We should not look down our nose" at people who go to trade school to learn carpentry or plumbing, he added on NBC's Meet The Press, "and say they're somehow less" because they didn't get a four-year college degree.

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higher education, Republican nomination race
George E. Condon Jr.

Santorum Sounds Like Ultimate Washington Insider in Debate

By George E. Condon Jr.
February 22, 2012 | 10:13 PM
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For more than a year, Rick Santorum has labored to cast himself as an outsider ready to go to Washington to challenge business as usual, which makes it all the more puzzling why he decided to use the crucial debate in Mesa to sound like the ultimate Washington insider. Over and over again, Santorum came off as a defender of Congress, a champion of earmarks and a master of legislative minutiae.

Legislative ratings, Title X, Title XX, earmarks, voting for things you opposed - these are the things that the former Pennsylvania senator talked about. At one point, his tortured explanation prompted Mitt Romney to admit -- or taunt -- he hadn't understood what Santorum was talking about. At other points, his inside-Washington talk and use of legislative jargon set him up for jabs and jibes from Rep. Ron Paul.

It could not have been what Santorum wanted to do in what could be the final Republican debate, the first one held since Santorum surged into the lead in many polls. Perhaps his worst moment was his attempt to explain why he voted for No Child Left Behind even though he opposed it. There were echoes of John Kerry's "I voted for it before I voted against it" only without Kerry's coherence. He said he voted for it because President George W. Bush asked him to do so. "I have to admit I voted for that. It was against the principles I believed in. But, you know, when you're part of the team sometimes you take one for the team, for the leader. And I made a mistake." Not a great answer when you're running to be a leader of a party deeply suspicious of Washington's ways.

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debate, Paul, Romney, Santorum
Jill Lawrence

Debate Focus Group: The Candidates Describe Themselves

By Jill Lawrence
February 22, 2012 | 10:01 PM
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Usually it's normal people in focus groups or answering poll questions who are asked to describe a candidate in one off-the-cuff word. On Wednesday night at the CNN debate, the candidates got a chance to do that about themselves.

Given a couple of minutes of notice about the question, they came up with terms that bring to mind colonial ships setting off to unknown lands across vast oceans, or, alternatively, a row of yachts moored in Newport, R.I.

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Republican debate
John Aloysius Farrell

Santorum May Be Winning By Not Losing

By John Aloysius Farrell
February 22, 2012 | 9:25 PM
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With the exception of Rep. Ron Paul, whose genial schtick about personal freedom seems beyond the reach, or maybe the comprehension, of his opponents, none of the Republican candidates in the CNN debate is particularly in their groove. Which may be good for Rick Santorum, who was due to take his turn as the night's piñata in his first debate as a front-running candidate.

Mitt Romney and CNN moderator John King have tried their best to shatter Santorum's cool, and the former Pennsylvania senator has been roughed up on issues like earmarking and spending. But Romney looks tired, and defensive at times, and he is not giving Santorum the bruising that he gave Newt Gingrich in Florida.

Santorum was helped by the focus, in the opening 45 minutes, on economic and fiscal issues. It allowed him to speak like a reasonable conservative, about debt and Social Security and the evil of the Wall St. bailout, without scaring independent voters with his pronounced views on faith, sex and reproductive freedom.


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Republican debate
George E. Condon Jr.

Paul on Santorum: 'He's a Fake'

By George E. Condon Jr.
February 22, 2012 | 7:56 PM
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 Forget the polls. You don't need to monitor the public opinion polls to track which Republican presidential candidate is surging. All you need to do is see which rival Texas Rep. Ron Paul is attacking - and how sarcastically he gets doing it. In the earlier debates, Paul went after Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Wednesday night, in Mesa, it was Rick Santorum's turn in Paul's sights.


The first question from CNN moderator John King was why Paul is calling Santorum a fake in his television commercials. With the bluntness that has gained him a cult-like following, the veteran congressman man responded, "Because he's a fake."

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Arizona, attack, debate, Paul, Santorum
John Aloysius Farrell

Santorum's Views on Sex and Religion Keep Him From Talking About the Economy

By John Aloysius Farrell
February 22, 2012 | 12:28 PM
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At the end of Rick Santorum's appearance on the CBS News show "Face the Nation" on Sunday, host Bob Schieffer felt the need to do some explaining to his guest and audience.

"I had hoped to ask you some questions about the economy," Schieffer told Santorum. "But frankly, you made so much news yesterday, out there on the campaign trail, I felt compelled to ask you about that."

Schieffer is not alone. Santorum has certainly been talking about the economy, but he's scheduling many of his campaign stops before religious audiences, where he makes news with his opinions about gay rights, contraception, abortion, public schools, religion and other social issues. His bold pronouncements have delighted social conservatives, and proved catnip for the media.


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abortion, contraception, Michigan, public schools, religion, Romney, Santorum, sex
Ronald Brownstein

Santorum's Working Class Opportunity

By Ronald Brownstein
February 17, 2012 | 4:02 PM
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The Michigan primary will test one of the most common- but as yet unproven - assumptions in the Republican presidential race: the expectation that Rick Santorum will be a strong candidate for blue-collar voters.

From the moment Santorum emerged as a serious contender in Iowa, many analysts (present company included) have assumed he would run well among the growing ranks of non-college white voters in the Republican electorate. On a policy level, Santorum stresses his determination to rebuild the nation's manufacturing capacity and laments the decline of upward mobility for working-class Americans in language rare among Republicans. On a personal level, Santorum highlights his years growing up in Western Pennsylvania steel country, and his grandfather's experience as a miner; he also projects a regular-guy aura that contrasts with rival Mitt Romney's vast wealth.

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George E. Condon Jr.

Obama Jabs Romney on Autos, But Not Naming Names

By George E. Condon Jr.
February 16, 2012 | 11:31 AM
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President Obama has been quite insistent that he is not ready to engage the Republican presidential candidates until the GOP settles on its nominee. "Once they narrow it down to one of two, I'll start paying attention," he said several times. And in his Super Bowl interview with NBC's Matt Lauer, he insisted he will hold his comments "until the Republicans decide who their nominee is going to be." He added, "I think most people are thinking the election is nine months away; the last thing we need is to start it right now when the other side hasn't determined its nominee."

But it's not too early to call attention to the success of one of his policies that was opposed by the leading Republican candidate. And as the good news keeps rolling in from the U.S. auto industry, the president has not been at all bashful about calling attention to what the White House sees as the politically unpalatable position taken on U.S. automakers by that Republican candidate - even if the president is always careful not to mention him by name.

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Autos, Obama, Romney
Ronald Brownstein

The Obama Campaign's Minority Blueprint

By Ronald Brownstein
February 15, 2012 | 5:29 PM
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One key reason why Democrats have grown more competitive in presidential elections since 1992 (after losing five of the previous six) is the steady growth in the minority share of the vote. In 1992, when Bill Clinton was first elected, non-whites cast 12 percent of the vote. When Barack Obama won in 2008, the minority share stood at 26 percent, more than double. How much more it grows, if at all, looms as one of the critical variables for 2012. The Obama camp is beginning to zero in on its projection.

A common misconception is that the minority share of the vote experienced an unsustainable surge in 2008 because of Obama's history-making status as the first African-American presidential nominee. In fact, the growth in the minority role has been steady over the past two decades, according to network exit polls. From 12 percent in 1992, the minority share of the vote increased to 17 percent in 1996, 21 percent in 2000, and 23 percent in 2004, before reaching its 26 percent level in 2008.

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George E. Condon Jr.

An Obama Promise That Should Not Have Been Made

By George E. Condon Jr.
February 14, 2012 | 3:06 PM
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Under fire from Republicans for a promise he won't be keeping about cutting the deficit, President Obama might consider emulating Franklin D. Roosevelt, who found himself in a very similar bind eight decades ago. In October 1932, Roosevelt told a crowd in Pittsburgh that he would balance the budget and cut government spending by 25 percent in his first term. But when he got in office, the only way to combat the Depression was to increase spending.

It was the right course for governing. But it presented Roosevelt with a real political challenge when he was running for a second term and returning to Pennsylvania. He asked speechwriter Sam Rosenman how to handle questions about the broken promise.


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budget, deficits, Obama, Romney, Roosevelt
Ronald Brownstein

Obama's Revived Coalition Spells Trouble for Romney

By Ronald Brownstein
February 14, 2012 | 10:22 AM
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The national Pew Research Center poll released Monday confirms that President Obama, at least for now, is reassembling the coalition that powered him to his 2008 victory.

The Pew survey, closely tracking last week's ABC News/Washington Post poll, shows that in a potential general election match-up against Mitt Romney, Obama's support among many of the electorate's key groups has converged with his 2008 showing against John McCain. In almost all cases, that represents gains for Obama since polls from last year.

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Obama; Republican nomination race, Pew poll, Polls, Romney
Jill Lawrence

Why Conservatives Should Stop The Obama Teleprompter Jokes

By Jill Lawrence
February 13, 2012 | 12:06 PM
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Isn't it time for conservatives to move past the teleprompter jokes about President Obama? The Republican nominee, whoever he is, will have to rely on a teleprompter, and at least one candidate -- Mitt Romney -- already uses one regularly.

Yet the jokes, and the mockery of Obama as incapable of expressing a thought without a cue card, won't die. "I almost feel like a president up here, with the teleprompters," pollster Tony Fabrizio said Saturday at the Conservative Political Action Conference. "And they're empty," he added to laughter, "like much of his words."

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Republican nomination race
Jill Lawrence

Romney's Psychological Boost is Better Than No Boost At All

By Jill Lawrence
February 11, 2012 | 7:32 PM
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From a psychological standpoint, there's no question Mitt Romney ended his week a lot better than he began it. Best not to look at the situation too closely. If we did, we'd notice that his two victories involved fewer than 9,000 votes and won him no convention delegates.

I'm not trying to minimize the bullet Romney dodged Saturday. This Republican nomination race has been momentum-proof, as Politico's Jonathan Martin put it. Yet it has had no shortage of the opposite -- that is, candidates falling into deep troughs.

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Republican nomination race
Jill Lawrence

Romney Clings to Guns and Misses a CPAC Opportunity

By Jill Lawrence
February 10, 2012 | 4:01 PM
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It was probably too much to expect a Sister Souljah moment from Mitt Romney at CPAC. Too bad for the media and for him. A speech challenging conservatives, even just a little, would have made news and might have helped Romney.

Instead, firmly in his "I'm one of you" rut, Romney described himself as the governor who "prevented Massachusetts from becoming the Las Vegas of gay marriage" (take that, swing-state Nevada) and taunted President Obama with the assertion that "we conservatives aren't just proud to cling to our guns and to our religion. We are also proud to cling to our Constitution."

Try to imagine the sophisticated, urban, ultra-wealthy Romney clinging to his gun. It's not easy, especially given his awkward campaign-trail relationship with guns.

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Republican nomination race
Jackie Koszczuk

Super PAC? What Super PAC?

By Jackie Koszczuk
February 9, 2012 | 3:39 PM
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Rick Santorum is quickly learning the ropes of being a serious contender for the Republican nomination for president in 2012. First you win a significant primary or four, then you attack front-runner Mitt Romney as insufficiently conservative and then you deny any knowledge of the organization raising millions of dollars in your behalf.

The former U.S. senator managed to accomplish all of that since his three-state sweep of Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado this week. On the trail in Oklahoma City today, Santorum decried Romney's "gotcha politics," and complained that Romney is not focusing on the issues - a nearly verbatim reprisal of Newt Gingrich's lament when he threatened the former Massachusetts governor's preeminence in South Carolina.

Mixing it up with reporters at his campaign event, Santorum was asked a question that by now has become a 2012 campaign standard:  "Senator, who is Foster Friess and how dependent are you on his donations?"

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John Aloysius Farrell

Mitt Romney's Nearly Mainly Almost Certain Nomination

By John Aloysius Farrell
February 8, 2012 | 7:31 AM
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The Nearly Mainly Almost Certain Nominee of the Republican Party won't lose much sleep over last night's unfortunate results in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

Yes, it was embarassing for Mitt Romney to have to come onstage in Denver, the state he thought he had the best chance of winning, to offer congratulations to Rick Santorum (the victor of the Iowa caucuses), who had just whipped him again, in three contests.


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Tags: 

MItt Romney; Rick Santorum; Newt Gingrich; Barack Obama; Colorado; Minnesota; Missouri; Republican nomination; 2012 presidential campaign
John Aloysius Farrell

Obama Lucky on Catholic Contraceptive Ruling

By John Aloysius Farrell
February 7, 2012 | 5:19 PM
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Given the choice between lucky and smart, most times I'll choose lucky. And in requiring that Catholic institutions like hospitals and colleges offer their employees a health insurance policy that includes birth control, the Obama administration has been lucky, not smart.

Lucky, because the controversy has been more than partially obscured by a similar flap over the actions of the Susan G. Komen for the Cure foundation. The group's decision (since retracted) to cease funding for Planned Parenthood seemed to ratify, at a pivotal moment, the argument made by the White House and its supporters: that women's reproductive rights remain under fire.

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Birth Control, Catholics, Obama
Ronald Brownstein

Is Obama's Coalition Re-Emerging?

By Ronald Brownstein
February 6, 2012 | 12:19 PM
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One striking aspect of the new ABC News/Washington Post poll released Monday is how closely the internal results of its head-to-head match-up between President Obama and Mitt Romney track Obama's performance against John McCain in 2008. Overall, the poll found Obama leading Romney in a 2012 match up by 51 percent to 45 percent among registered voters. It was the first time the survey had shown Obama (or Romney) crossing the 50 percent threshold against the other in a series of ballot tests since last spring.

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Jill Lawrence

Time to Get Rid of Caucuses, Let Other States Go Early, Or Both

By Jill Lawrence
February 5, 2012 | 10:22 PM
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As I write this, it's 24 hours after the TV networks called the Nevada caucuses for Mitt Romney, and more than 13 percent of the vote is still uncounted. When will we know whether Romney topped 50 percent, whether Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul came in second, how the state's 28 delegates will be doled out? Maybe when a flock of carrier pigeons arrives at state party headquarters? This week sometime would be good.

We won't even get into the tiny turnout in Nevada, which was moved up on the nomination calendar four years ago so the West would have an early say in the presidential process. Or the weirdness of an evening caucus that you couldn't get into unless you signed an affidavit about your religion. Or the "trouble box." Seriously.

This can't be what Republican elders envisioned. Nor were they likely expecting the Iowa GOP to announce more than two weeks after its Jan. 3 kickoff caucuses that Romney, declared the winner on caucus night, actually lost to Rick Santorum. Oh, and votes from eight precincts were missing, so who knows who really won.

"The Super Bowl is over but the #NVCaucus isn't," tweeted Craig Robinson, whose Twitter handle is @IowaGOPer, 24 hours after the race was called.

Maybe the dysfunction in Nevada is making him and other Iowans feel better (schadenfreude, anyone?), but Iowa has nothing to brag about. There are two more caucus contests coming up Tuesday in Colorado and Minnesota. If they manage to pull off smooth, high-turnout elections, maybe they should be first in the West and Midwest on the 2016 calendar. Or how about both parties agree to let Arizona go first? It's in the West, it holds a primary, and it may be evolving into a general-election swing state. That's a win-win-win.

Update: At 5:06 a.m. eastern on Monday, Feb. 6, two days after its caucuses, the Nevada GOP tweeted that the count was complete. For the record, Romney did clear 50 percent and Gingrich came in second.

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Republican nomination race
George E. Condon Jr.

Clint Eastwood Makes Obama's Day

By George E. Condon Jr.
February 5, 2012 | 10:04 PM
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President Obama's ad-makers may have to pay royalties to Clint Eastwood after a remarkable two-minute Chrysler commercial that aired on the biggest of all stages - the Super Bowl - and gave a pretty good preview of what the president's reelection commercials might look like. At the very least, the ad and Eastwood's powerful narration make it much, much more difficult for Republican front-runner Mitt Romney to keep pushing his line that Washington should have let the automakers go into bankruptcy.

And don't think that Team Obama wasn't watching the Super Bowl along with millions of other Americans and immediately grasped the boost they could get from the commercial. White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer quickly tweeted "Saving the America auto industry: something Eminem and Clint Eastwood can agree on." Senior strategist David Axelrod tweeted "Powerful spot. Did Clint shoot that, or just narrate it?"  Former White House aide Bill Burton tweeted, "Clinton Eastwood #winning."

Of course, this isn't the first time Eastwood has been identified with cars -- he starred in Pink Cadillac in 1989 and Gran Torino in 2008. But those weren't in the Super Bowl with a bigger audience than probably saw both those movies combined.

RELATED: Chrysler Super Bowl Ad Removed From YouTube

With 30 second spots selling for $3.5 million, the commercial cost Chrysler an estimated $14 million and was kept under wraps by the automaker, which, with the help of the Obama administration, has come back from the dead after being counted out in 2009. And one can only guess what the automaker paid Eastwood. Whatever, it was worth it for it was a master stroke. The 81-year-old actor has told interviewers he has always voted Republican for president, though he has endorsed some Democrats in California and has praised libertarians.

The commercial itself was reminiscent of Ronald Reagan's "Morning in America" commercials, though with the famous Clint Eastwood tough guy touch. Shown shortly after Madonna's halftime performance, it began with the silhouette of Eastwood, walking in the dark and recognizable only for his gravelly voice. "It's halftime. Both teams are in their locker room discussing what they can do to win this game," he says. "It's halftime in America, too." With scenes of an iconic front porch and a city skyline," he continues, "People are out of work and they are hurting. They are all wondering what they are going to do to make a comeback. And we're all scared because this isn't a game."

With more every day scenes flashing on the screen, Eastwood adds, "The people in Detroit know a little something about this. They almost lost everything. But we all pulled together. Now Motor City is fighting again." With the music punctuating his remarks, Eastwood goes on: "I've seen a lot of tough eras, a lot of downturns in my life. Times when we didn't understand each other. It seems that we've lost our heart at times. The fog of division, discord and blame, made it hard to see what lies ahead." As scenes of protesters give way to black and white photos of kids and firefighters, Eastwood builds, "But after those trials, we all rallied around what was right and acted as one. Because that's what we do. We find a way through tough times. If we can't find a way then we'll make one. All that matters now is what's ahead. How do we come from behind? How do we come together?

At this point, viewers see Eastwood in the light. "And how do we win? Detroit is showing us it can be done,. And what's true about them is true about all of us. This country can't be knocked out with one punch." To conclude, a close-up of Eastwood fills the screen. "We get right back up again and when we do the world is going to hear the roar of our engines. Yeah, its halftime America and our second half is about to begin."

All that was missing was him turning to Mitt Romney and challenging him to "make my day."

Tags: 

autos, Clint Eastwood, Obama, Romney
Jill Lawrence

Newt to Mitt: Forget the Fantasies, I'm Still In and Still on Offense

By Jill Lawrence
February 4, 2012 | 11:29 PM
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Newt Gingrich has given himself a deadline to catch up with Mitt Romney in the delegate count for the Republican presidential nomination. But he's not going to fulfill what he calls Romney's "greatest fantasy" by getting out of the race anytime soon. He said he expects to be at parity with Romney by the April 3 Texas primary and "we will go to Tampa," site of the GOP convention this summer.

Nor is Gingrich going to fulfill what's no doubt another Romney fantasy -- going positive. There had been reports suggesting he would, until Gingrich cleared that up at the caucus night press conference he held in Las Vegas instead of a rally. "I stayed relentlessly positive in Iowa and I lost 22 points," he said.

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Republican nomination race
Jill Lawrence

Only One Nevada Mystery: Will it Go For Romney or Obama?

By Jill Lawrence
February 4, 2012 | 9:19 PM
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Mitt Romney's blowout in the Nevada caucuses, a repeat performance of his finish four years ago, was not exactly unpredictable. The most interesting thing about the state remains the mystery of who will get its six electoral votes in November -- President Obama or the Republican nominee, who is all but certain to be Romney. 

Much of the rest of the country seems to be slowly mending economically. But Nevada maintains what Ron Paul recently called "its unfortunate standing as a leader in joblessness, housing foreclosure, and federal interference."

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Republican nomination race
Ronald Brownstein

Rocky Terrain: Obama's Electoral College Map Grows Steeper

By Ronald Brownstein
February 2, 2012 | 2:34 PM
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The Gallup state-by-state average approval numbers for 2011 released this week don't necessarily predict where President Obama will finish on Election Day, but they do measure the hill he must climb to win re-election.

The most important number in presidential elections, of course, is 270 - the number of Electoral College votes it takes to win. The best way to examine the Gallup numbers is to measure them against that yardstick.

In 2010, if you sorted down from Obama's highest approval rating to his lowest, he could reach 270 Electoral College votes by carrying the 22 states plus the District of Columbia where his approval rating stood at 46.9 percent or more. Since one of the states above that line was Mississippi, a state Obama has almost no chance of carrying in practice, a more realistic scenario was that to reach an Electoral College majority he would have to carry those 21 states plus Virginia, where his approval rating stood at 46.6 percent.

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Jackie Koszczuk

GOP Women in Florida Spurn Gingrich

By Jackie Koszczuk
January 31, 2012 | 10:54 PM
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Newt Gingrich's woman problem may be finally catching up with him, just like his ex-wives ultimately seem to.

Exit polls of Florida's Republican primary voters exposed a distinct gender gap between reinvigorated front-runner Mitt Romney and Gingrich. Although Romney beat Gingrich among most demographic groups, Romney's yawning lead among women, especially married women, was noteworthy. Romney beat Gingrich with men, 41 percent to 36 percent, but he beat him with women, 52 percent to 28 percent.

The gender gap was even more pronounced among married couples. Married men split about evenly between the two, giving Romney 37 percent and Gingrich 36 percent. But married women preferred Romney, 51 percent to 28 percent.

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Jill Lawrence

Florida Finale: Gingrich, Mormons, Jews, and Kosher Food

By Jill Lawrence
January 31, 2012 | 5:50 PM
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So let's get this straight.

On Monday, campaigning in Florida, Newt Gingrich accuses Mitt Romney of eliminating kosher meals for Holocaust survivors in Massachusetts nursing homes.

On Tuesday, he says he is unaware of a robo-call voters are receiving that makes the same accusation. Later Tuesday, his campaign spokesman confirms that the calls are coming from the Gingrich campaign.

All this eight years after a Jewish publication investigates the claims and finds they are untrue.


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Republican nomination race
Jill Lawrence

Gingrich's Damn the Torpedoes Morning in America

By Jill Lawrence
January 29, 2012 | 7:28 PM
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Whatever happened to the old politician's trick of answering the question you wanted to be asked, instead of the one that you actually were asked? 

If you assume Newt Gingrich wants to talk about his plans for America, he managed to do that maybe twice, and briefly, in a 17-minute appearance Sunday on ABC's This Week. For the most part he aired his grievances against Mitt Romney and Romney's establishment buddies in the kind of subtle language for which he's famous. It was no Reaganesque Sunday Morning in America. It was more like damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.

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Republican nomination race, Republican presidential race
Ronald Brownstein

Why Immigration is Fizzling in Florida for Gingrich

By Ronald Brownstein
January 28, 2012 | 12:59 PM
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MIAMI -- When Newt Gingrich pounded Mitt Romney's immigration policy as inhumane and unrealistic at last Thursday night's GOP debate, the sound of silence was deafening at the debate-watching party of a prominent Republican Hispanic group here.


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George E. Condon Jr.

How Gingrich's Earmark Regime Led To Cunningham Corruption

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 27, 2012 | 4:56 PM
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Randy "Duke" Cunningham was always Newt Gingrich's kind of congressman. The California Republican truly was grandiose -- grandiose in his ego, grandiose in his crudeness, grandiose in his bribe-taking, grandiose in his corruption. So it should not surprise the former speaker in the slightest that Cunningham, the most corrupt congressman ever caught, would reach out to Gingrich from inside his berth in a federal prison outside Tucson.

Cunningham is serving the longest sentence ever given any member of Congress, a 100-month term that should keep him incarcerated until June 2013.  He pleaded guilty to conspiracy and tax evasion in 2005, resigning his San Diego County seat in Congress Dec. 6, 2005 after 15 years in office.
   

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George E. Condon Jr.

Gingrich Claims Reagan Mantle; Blames 'Romney Attack Machine'

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 26, 2012 | 9:56 PM
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After a day in which he was blind-sided by multiple attacks and suggestions that he was never quite the Reagan disciple he has intimated during the campaign, Newt Gingrich fired back hard in the Jacksonville debate, blaming rival Mitt Romney for the broadside.

"It's increasingly interesting to watch the Romney attack machine coordinate things," said the former Speaker. "All of a sudden today there are four different articles by four different people that show up" questioning his Reagan credentials.

Perhaps the most biting article was written by former Reagan assistant secretary of state Elliott Abrams, who said the young Gingrich "often spewed insulting rhetoric at Reagan, his top aides and his policies to defeat Communism." He quoted Gingrich in 1985 calling Reagan's Cold War policies "pathetically incompetent."

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debate, Gingrich, Reagan, Romney
George E. Condon Jr.

Paul Once Dreamed of Space; Now Wants to Send Politicians

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 26, 2012 | 8:56 PM
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It turns out becoming president was not always Ron Paul's dream. Like so many other Americans in the 1960s, he wanted to be an astronaut. "I actually had a daydream of becoming the first physician to go into space," he confessed during the Jacksonville debate, noting that when he entered the Air Force in 1962, right after John Glenn's historic flight in February of that year, he studied aerospace medicine.

 

But even though he never became an astronaut, it doesn't mean he doesn't still have dreams about space. Now, he said with a laugh, he doesn't want the country to spend the money to return to the moon. But, he added, "I think we maybe should send some politicians up there sometimes."

 

Paul also was grilled about his age. Now 76, he would be the oldest president in U.S. history if elected, prompting moderator Wolf Blitzer to ask if he will release his medical records."Oh, obviously, because it's about one page, if even that long," he said. But then he challenged his younger rivals "to a 25-mile bike ride any time of the day in the heat of Texas."

 

More seriously - or at least, he seemed to be serious - he told Blitzer that questions about his health have come up "sometimes in fun, but sometimes not in fun." He warned Blitzer, "There are laws against age discrimination, so, if you push this too much, you better be careful."

 

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age, debates, Florida, Paul, space
George E. Condon Jr.

Paul is Different Again -- Let's Trade With Cuba

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 26, 2012 | 7:51 PM
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In the almost six decades that Fidel Castro has ruled Cuba, Republican presidential candidates have elbowed each other and fought to portray themselves as the toughest on Castro - until Thursday night when Rep. Ron Paul showed again that he is quite willing to be different. To a question suggesting that the United States has not been involved enough in influencing governments in Latin America, Paul called for an end to the half-century-old U.S. trade embargo of Cuba.

"Free trade is an answer, the answer to a lot of conflicts around the world," he said. ""I'm always promoting free trade. And you might add Cuba, too. I think we'd be a lot better off... trading with Cuba." Later in his answer, he added, "I believe with friendship and trade you can have a lot of influence. And I strongly believe that it's time we had friendship and trade with Cuba."

None of the other three candidates - who have been ardently wooing the state's influential Cuban community, most of whom are stridently anti-Castro - jumped in to agree. Former Sen. Rick Santorum indicated he did not agree with Paul's response but turned his answer into an attack on President Obama. The president, he said, has a policy of "siding with leftists, siding with Marxists" and seeking common ground with Castro and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.

 

Tags: 

Cuba, debate, Florida, Paul, Santorum
Ronald Brownstein

Romney's Florida Formula: Return to Divide and Conquer

By Ronald Brownstein
January 25, 2012 | 3:57 PM
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Could divide and conquer work for Mitt Romney one more time? Two polls released Wednesday in the showdown state of Florida suggest that it might, unless Newt Gingrich can re-energize his populist, anti-establishment coalition before next Tuesday's vote.

From mid-December, when Romney launched his first offensive against Gingrich, through the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, divide and conquer was the decisive dynamic in the GOP race. Romney moved into the lead during that period because he consolidated the center of the party behind him more than any one of his rivals consolidated the right of the party against him. Instead, conservatives fragmented among a long menu of choices.

That pattern flipped in Gingrich's crushing South Carolina victory last Saturday. Gingrich ran better among the key elements of what could be called the GOP's populist wing-including evangelical Christians, strong tea party supporters, non-college voters, those earning less than $50,000 annually and voters who identify as very conservative-than Romney did among the opposite groups in the GOP's managerial wing (non-evangelicals, non-Tea Party supporters, moderates, and more affluent and college-educated voters.) In South Carolina, Gingrich actually won some of those more centrist and pragmatic groups. Even when he didn't, he held down Romney's margin among those groups-while running up his own advantage among their conservative mirror images.

The CNN/Time/ORC Florida survey released this afternoon looks less like South Carolina than it does like Iowa. 

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Republican nomination race, Republican presidential race
Ronald Brownstein

In Florida Debate, Romney Morphs from Prey into Hunter

By Ronald Brownstein
January 23, 2012 | 11:37 PM
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The Republican field mostly used Monday night's NBC/National Journal/Tampa Bay Times debate as an opportunity to catch its breath after the breakneck race to the tape in South Carolina last weekend. Following last Thursday's emotionally explosive debate in Charleston, the candidates were much more sedate on Monday. The major confrontations before Florida's primary next Tuesday seem to be still ahead of us -- but the debate captured some important shifts in the dynamics among the candidates. Here are five of them:

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Republican debate, Republican nomination race
George E. Condon Jr.

Romney, Gingrich Stick to English as Official Language

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 23, 2012 | 10:40 PM
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After months of campaigning in which they rarely encountered Latinos, the Republican candidates are suddenly hunting for votes in the state with the third highest number of Hispanics. But in the Tampa debate, neither Mitt Romney nor Newt Gingrich backed down from their tough stands about the English language and immigration - even when confronted with what seems to many to be a little hypocrisy in their campaigns. Beth Reinhard of the National Journal noted that both candidates want to make English the official language and outlaw ballots being printed in Spanish. But Gingrich is sending out Florida press releases in Spanish and Romney is running some Spanish language advertising.

Both candidates insisted there is nothing hypocritical about this. "I think campaigning, historically, you've always been willing to go to people on their terms and in their culture, whether it is Greek Independence Day or something you did for the Irish on St. Patrick's Day," said Gingrich. "I'm perfectly happy to have a lot of support in the Latino community." But he said that "it is essential to have a central language" to unify the country. He added, "Look, English is the language of this nation. People need to learn English."

The only dissenting voice was Ron Paul who favors English as the national language but chided his rivals for trying to impose their policy on the states. "Our system really gives us a way to be more generous," he said. "Because if Florida wanted to have some ballots in Spanish, I certainly wouldn't support a federal law that prohibited Florida" from having them. The others, he said, were "dictating one answer for all states."

The imperative of the issue is clear from the numbers. In the three states where the candidates have spent most of their time campaigning, there is a grand total of only 371,000 Latinos - 37,000 in New Hampshire, 130,000 in Iowa and 204,000 in South Carolina, according to the Pew Hispanic Center numbers for 2009. In Florida, there are 3.9 million. Hispanics in the other three states are either three or four percent; in Florida, they are 22 percent of the population.

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Florida, Gingrich, Hispanics, Romney
George E. Condon Jr.

For Romney, the SC Lesson is Attack, Attack, Attack

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 23, 2012 | 9:44 PM
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It took less than a minute into the latest Republican presidential debate for longtime front-runner Mitt Romney to show what lesson he took from his surprisingly big defeat in South Carolina: Bare the teeth and go for the jugular of the man who beat him so solidly.

The attacks on former House speaker Newt Gingrich were almost non-stop. Before most viewers had a chance to settle in to watch NBC's broadcast, Romney had lashed Gingrich as a Washington "influence peddler," a disgraced speaker forced out of office, a failed political leader, a lobbyist and a traitor to the conservative cause.

Asked by moderator Brian Williams how he squared those attacks with his lament last week that he wanted to avoid personal criticisms of other Republicans, Romney adopted a tight smile and recalled his Saturday shellacking. "I learned something from that last contest in South Carolina," said Romney. "And that was I had incoming from all directions, was overwhelmed with a lot of the attacks. And I'm not going to sit back and get attacked day in and day out and without returning fire."

Gingrich was not bashful about fighting back, though he refused to get dragged into many of the specifics. He seemed more saddened than angry at the barrage from Romney. "He just went on and on and on," he said of Romney, adding that "he may have been a good financier. He's a terrible historian." Yet Gingrich, who really is a historian, offered up some questionable history himself.


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Debate, Gingrich, Romney, South Carolina
Jill Lawrence

Is Obama Trying to Help Gingrich Win Florida?

By Jill Lawrence
January 23, 2012 | 10:30 AM
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The Obama campaign is out with a scathing memo welcoming Mitt Romney to Florida. Playing off exit polls in South Carolina, it pretty much embodies the rule that the best defense is a good offense. It also raises the question of whether President Obama is trying to pick his opponent this fall.

Campaign manager Jim Messina spouted so many attack lines against Romney that it's tough to decide which to share. Here's a sampling:

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Tags: 

President Obama, presidential election, Republican nomination race
Ronald Brownstein

Gingrich Coalition Could Pose Sustained Challenge to Romney

By Ronald Brownstein
January 21, 2012 | 11:06 PM
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In South Carolina it appears the two tribes of the Republican Party have settled on their champions for a contest that could divide the party along clear, sharp lines of class, ideology and religious devotion.

Newt Gingrich won his commanding South Carolina victory partly by cutting into Mitt Romney's support among the groups that had favored him in earlier states, exit polls posted on CNN showed. But mostly Gingrich triumphed by consolidating the groups resistant to Romney to a greater extent than anyone had done previously.

If Gingrich can muster the organizational and financial resources to capitalize on his breakthrough, that pattern raises the possibility of an extended race with Romney in which each man mobilizes divergent but roughly equally sized coalitions.
 

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Republican nomination race
Jackie Koszczuk

Taking the Fizz Out of Obama's Bubbly

By Jackie Koszczuk
January 21, 2012 | 9:33 PM
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No doubt there were champagne corks popping at the White House when Newt Gingrich was declared the winner of the South Carolina primary on Saturday night. But the state's Republicans also have a sobering message for President Obama: It's not just the economy, stupid. By November, it might be only the economy.

In spite of more personal baggage than a jumbo jet, Gingrich beat endangered front-runner Mitt Romney because most Republicans in South Carolina think he can beat Obama and because the economy outweighed, by far, any other issue on the table, according to exit polls.

Six in 10 primary voters identified the economy as the most important issue to them, and of those, 40 percent voted for Gingrich, more than any other candidate in the four-man contest. Romney got 32 percent of the votes from Republicans who think the economy is the No. 1 issue. Nearly a third of South Carolina's GOP voters said someone in their household has been laid off in the last three years.

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Chris Frates

Super PACs' Influence Ebbs in South Carolina

By Chris Frates
January 21, 2012 | 8:50 PM
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In Iowa, pro-Mitt Romney super PAC Restore Our Future crushed pro-Newt Gingrich Winning Our Future PAC, spending 10 times more in television ads and helping to knock Gingrich from frontrunner to also-ran. But in South Carolina, the two PACs spent about $3 million each on advertising fighting to a draw. Gingrich's win in South Carolina Saturday night was earned more by the candidate's performance on the ground than his supporters' air cover. 

In particular, a majority of South Carolina voters said the candidates' debate performances mattered and Gingrich was coming off a memorable Thursday night performance as voters went to the polls today. The opening question of that debate was whether Gingrich asked his second wife, Marianne Gingrich, for an open marriage or a divorce after revealing an affair with his now third wife, Callista Gingrich. The former House speaker played to the GOP base's mistrust of the media by calling the question a despicable way to begin a presidential debate, winning big audience applause. In fact, Marianne Gingrich's claim, and the huge amount of coverage it generated, didn't appear to affect the race much at all. 

The pro-Newt and pro-Romney super PAC ads likely canceled each other out as voters made their decisions. With no standout ads driving earned media coverage, the political wall of noise coming from South Carolina TVs likely became nothing more than background noise. 

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Callista Gingrich, Marianne Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Restore Our Future, Super PACs, Winning Our Future
George E. Condon Jr.

Romney on Capitalism: He'll Stuff It Down Obama's Throat

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 19, 2012 | 6:36 PM
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Mitt Romney employed some of the toughest rhetoric of his campaign in Thursday's South Carolina debate, ripping into President Obama as a job-destroying disaster who practices "crony capitalism," listens to labor "stooges," and so misunderstands capitalism that Romney will have to "stuff it down his throat" in the fall campaign.

And that was just in Romney's first response in a debate he clearly wanted to serve as a preview for how he'd go after Obama.

The GOP front-runner was also the first in the debate to attack the president for his decision this week to kill the Keystone pipeline. "Because he has to bow to the most extreme members of the environmental movement, he turned down the Keystone pipeline, which would bring energy and jobs to America," said Romney. "This president is the biggest impediment to job growth in this country. And we have to replace Barack Obama to get America working again."

Romney also raised the Obama administration's $535 million loan to Solyndra, the California solar company that went bankrupt last year, accusing the president of "practicing crony capitalism." He added, "He stacks the labor stooges on the NRB so they can say no to Boeing and take care of their friends in the labor movement."

Romney also turned an attack on his work for Bain Capital into another attack on Obama. "There's nothing wrong with profit," he said, adding that much of Bain's profits went to pension funds and charities and hired more people. "I'm going to stand and defend capitalists across this country. I know we're going to get it hard from President Obama. But we'll stuff it down his throat."

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debate, Keystone, Obama, Romney, Solyndra
George E. Condon Jr.

Perry Exit Should Humble the "Experts"

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 19, 2012 | 3:39 PM
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As Rick Perry ignominiously departs the presidential race and sheepishly returns to Texas, his oh-so-short campaign should serve as a humbling reminder to those who prognosticate about politics. For when Perry burst on the scene with an Aug. 13th announcement in South Carolina that overshadowed the Iowa Straw Poll, no one foresaw that he would crash and burn only 159 days later, not even making it to the South Carolina primary.

The experts inside the Republican Party, political analysts and journalists were aware of potential pitfalls for Perry when he announced. But they were all more impressed by his executive experience in Austin, his ability to raise money, his influential backers and a jobs record he could highlight in an election that all expected would be dominated by the economy. Fueled by the high expectations and advance reviews, everything seemed to be falling into place. Only ten days after his announcement, Gallup reported "Perry Zooms to the Front of the Pack for 2012 GOP Nomination." He was beating second-place Mitt Romney by 12 points, 29 to 17 percent.

But the collapse was almost as quick and agonizingly inexorable. Accusing the head of the Federal Reserve of treason; calling Social Security "a Ponzi scheme"; aligning himself with the already-discredited birthers. And all that long before that "oops" moment or any of his other missteps in the many debates.

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campaign, Perry, Republicans, Romney, Texas
Jackie Koszczuk

Will South Carolina Women Surge Against Gingrich?

By Jackie Koszczuk
January 19, 2012 | 3:09 PM
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Forget about potentially losing the evangelical vote in South Carolina. Marianne Gingrich's interview on ABC News tonight puts her ex-husband's presidential campaign in jeopardy with a much bigger segment of the electorate in South Carolina -- women. Be they evangelical, Catholic or agnostic, women are going to see in Marianne Gingrich a highly sympathetic version of that American classic -- the middle-aged woman abandoned by her ambition-addled husband for a younger version of herself. The fact that he heaped insult onto injury by asking her for an open marriage, so that he could keep both his marriage and his young mistress, makes it highly unlikely that women will be willing to overlook Newt Gingrich's character and vote for him on the economy.

Although most of what Marianne Gingrich has to say about her ex was reported in 2010 in a long interview with Esquire, her decision to say it on television, just two days before the South Carolina primary, is potential dynamite. One has to wonder whether she waited for precisely this moment to drop the bomb, when in all probability she had multiple interview requests over the several months that Gingrich has been in the race for the Republican nomination for president. If revenge is a dish best served cold, she made sure she reached into the fridge at just the right moment.

Her claim that Gingrich requested an open marriage is believable, given the candidate's reputation for grandiosity and for, well, his ability to dream up novel approaches to problems. When Gingrich admitted his six-year affair with Callista, while he was the House speaker and she was a congressional aide, Marianne Gingrich said she pleaded with her husband that they had been married for 18 years.


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Ronald Brownstein

Romney's South Carolina Formula

By Ronald Brownstein
January 18, 2012 | 7:35 PM
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CHARLESTON, S.C. -- Mitt Romney is still waiting for his victory lap. Three different national surveys released Wednesday showed his overall support among Republicans at 33 percent or less -- hardly a stirring number after his feat of becoming the first Republican other than a sitting president to win both Iowa (at least until final results are announced Thursday) and New Hampshire under the modern primary calendar.


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George E. Condon Jr.

Obama Itinerary Tracks Primary Calendar

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 18, 2012 | 5:20 PM
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Jay Carney could be excused for his incredulity at Wednesday's White House briefing. To his surprise, he found himself on the defensive amid suggestions that somehow President Obama should not be traveling to Florida on Thursday. The criticism is that because Republicans are about to descend on the state prior to the Jan. 31 primary, the Democratic president should somehow leave them free to attack him uncontested.

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Tags: 

campaign, Florida, Obama
Josh Krashaar

Romney Solidifies Standing as Rivals Miss Attack Opportunities

By Josh Kraushaar
January 16, 2012 | 11:13 PM
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Mitt Romney's four remaining rivals are running out of time to stall his glide path to the Republican nomination. And after Monday night's Fox News debate in front of a feisty Myrtle Beach crowd, Romney solidified his standing, demonstrating his economic fluency and assertiveness on a strong American foreign policy. Outside of inside-baseball tweaks about his position on felon voting rights and campaign finance law, he was barely nicked by his rivals.

Romney's challengers all performed well, but none stood out - and, more importantly, none established themselves as the clear conservative alternative to the Republican front-runner.  Santorum failed to capitalize on the endorsement from evangelical leaders by making his case as the social conservative. Gingrich failed to capitalize on his argument against Romney's record at Bain Capital, pulling his punches when offered the opportunity at the debate's outset. Perry failed to capitalize by contrasting his executive record with the legislative backgrounds of Gingrich and Santorum.

And no one took on Romney over his health care plan in Massachusetts, a consistent vulnerability of his that hasn't been exploited.  

The top nine analyses from the night's debate:

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Tags: 

Republican debate, Republican nomination race
Jill Lawrence

Perry on the Urinating Marines: A Lost Chance to Be Presidential

By Jill Lawrence
January 15, 2012 | 3:39 PM
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So you're President Rick Perry and a video of young Marines appearing to be urinating on dead Taliban fighters has gone viral. What's your reaction? Teens will be teens?

Probably not, given that Afghan officials are shocked and livid while Taliban leaders - the ones you are trying to bring into negotiations with the Afghan government -- are denouncing "inhumane" behavior by "wild American soldiers."


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Tags: 

Republican nomination race, Republican presidential race
Jill Lawrence

Why Romney Needs to Keep Fighting for Evangelical Votes

By Jill Lawrence
January 14, 2012 | 5:23 PM
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Mitt Romney was never likely to capture the endorsement of the Christian conservatives who met in Texas this weekend and belatedly crowned Rick Santorum their favorite in the Republican nomination race. But two new media moves under a "Shares Our Values" banner underscore Romney's determination -- and need -- to win at least some votes from that group in South Carolina.

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Tags: 

Republican nomination race, Republican Party
Ronald Brownstein

Romney Could Draw Blue-Collar Voters in a General Election

By Ronald Brownstein
January 13, 2012 | 4:40 PM
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Some Democrats have taken heart from results in the New Hampshire and Iowa election-day polls showing that Mitt Romney did not run nearly as well among lower- as upper-income voters. The Democratic hope is that could signal difficulty for Romney in relating to working-class white voters who have flocked to the GOP in recent elections. But the story may not be that simple.

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Tags: 

presidential election, Republican nomination race
George E. Condon Jr.

Washington's a Mess -- But Not Our Mess, Say Dems

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 13, 2012 | 4:06 PM
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Four years after it was trendy in Democratic circles to liken Barack Obama to Franklin D. Roosevelt, it is safe to conclude that no one in the Obama re-election campaign will be borrowing FDR's "Happy Days are Here Again" as the theme song for 2012. Judging by recent speeches by the president and the first lady, a much likelier choice is the 2009 tune by He is We, "A Mess it Grows." Or maybe Avril Lavigne's "I'm With You," with its line, "'Cause nothing's going right. And everything's a mess."

Both Obamas left little doubt this week that things are still a mess even after three years of Obama rule. In a speech in Richmond, the first lady talked about "this mess." But she struck the right campaign theme, adding ,"Fortunately, over the past three years, we've worked very hard to dig ourselves out of this mess. Your president has worked very hard. And there's been a lot of wonderful progress made."

Then on Friday, the president pitched his government reorganization plan, even making rare use of a colorful chart. "I don't usually use props in my speeches," he acknowledged to laughter. But he wanted to show how complicated the current government makes things. "This is the system that small business owners face.  This is what they have to deal with if they want even the most basic answers to the most basic questions like how to export to a new country or whether they qualify for a loan."  Reflecting on the way, government treats businesses, he concluded, "It's a mess."

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Tags: 

Michelle Obama, Obama, Reagan, Romney
George E. Condon Jr.

Democrats Fight Perception of Billion-Dollar Campaign

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 12, 2012 | 5:02 PM
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Ever since April, people have been speculating that President Obama's campaign may shatter all fund-raising records and may even become the first-ever billion-dollar campaign.. But in the last month, campaign officials have struggled to knock down that notion -- sometimes very colorfully -- because they realize that the perception the president's campaign coffers are overflowing actually hurts fund-raising.

Campaign manager Jim Messina on Thursday tried again to rebut the billion-dollar notion, at least his third such attempt in the last month. This time, it was a video sent to supporters. After boasting of "a pretty good quarter" in which the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee raised $68 million, Messina praised the enthusiasm of the president's supporters, calling it "in stark contrast to what we've seen on the other side."

But, somewhat ominously, he complained of "a challenge that keeps coming up -- too many Obama supporters think we don't need their money. Or they don't need to give now."  He spoke of recent emails that said the campaign is going to raise $1 billion, so more contributions aren't needed. "Look," responded an exasperated Messina, "I totally get why people would think that. But they are completely wrong." He said the $1 billion speculation "is completely untrue."

Messina made the same point in an end-of-the-year email in which he wrote that such speculation "turns people off from politics." He added, "We do not and will not have a billion-dollar war chest." The campaign manager was even more colorful in a December video to supporters. "People have speculated this is a billion dollar campaign," he said. "That's bullshit."

Tags: 

campaign, fundraising, Obama
George E. Condon Jr.

A Texas Tradition -- Big Bucks, Few Delegates

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 11, 2012 | 3:04 PM
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It must be a Texas thing. Barring a big rebound in South Carolina, Gov. Rick Perry is at risk of joining two other Texans in the political hall of fame for most dollars spent for the least results. The reigning champion is former Gov. John Connally, who famously spent almost $12 million for a single delegate in the1980 presidential campaign, Ada Mills of Arkansas.

Then, along came Sen. Phil Gramm in 1996. He started his campaign raising more than $4 million at a single dinner and boasting that "ready money is the mother's milk of politics." Gramm had lots of ready money. But things dried up for him pretty quickly. His campaign was dead even before he got to Iowa when he was defeated in the Louisiana caucuses by Patrick Buchanan. After finishing fifth in Iowa, he dropped out after having spent more than $21 million for ten delegates.

Now, it's Perry's turn. And he seems to be following in the Texas tradition of Connally, Gramm and former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (who flamed out in 1976, though without the excess spending of the others). Perry spent more than $6 million in Iowa, but finished a weak fifth with only 10.3 percent of the vote. Lots of money, but no delegates since the caucuses only send people to a county convention. Actual national convention delegates will not be apportioned until the state party convention June 16.

That took Perry into New Hampshire. Sort of. His name was on the ballot. But he was there only for debates, preferring to make his stand in South Carolina. The result was not pretty for Perry. While Romney drew 97,000 votes, Perry could not crack 2,000, getting less than one percent of the vote. And no delegates -- making South Carolina possibly his last chance to get that first delegate and avoid breaking Connally's record.

Tags: 

2012 campaign, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, Rick Perry, South Carolina, Texas
Ronald Brownstein

Romney Expands Appeal to Evangelicals, Tea Party in N.H.

By Ronald Brownstein
January 10, 2012 | 10:30 PM
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Mitt Romney demonstrated extraordinary reach across the Republican coalition in a sweeping New Hampshire victory Tuesday night that has left his rivals facing a potentially do-or-die stand in South Carolina a week from Saturday.

Romney dominated not only the groups that favored him in Iowa last week, but also several of those that had resisted him there -- particularly voters who identified as either evangelical Christians or strong tea party supporters, according to the exit polls reported on CNN.com.

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Tags: 

Republican nomination race, Republican presidential race, Republican primary
Major Garrett

The New Hampshire Primary Expecto-Meter

By Major Garrett
January 10, 2012 | 5:41 PM
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New Hampshire is all about expectations. I have my own (not that anyone asked or particularly cares). But I have them. I think they are valid.

I measure them on my Expecto-Meter. I use three sets of data. 1). Polling since the Iowa caucuses 2). How candidates finished in Iowa this year compared to polls taken before the caucuses 3). How candidates who ran in 2008 and are running now performed in Iowa and New Hampshire relative to polling data before that caucus and primary. 

Yes, every race is different, but polling data in 2008 and 2012 reflected the final results with more than a modest degree of precision. These sets of data, I believe, ought to tell us something about tonight - before the spin cycles begin.

Tonight's Expecto-Meter

Mitt Romney: Total vote percentage = 41.2 percent
Spread over 2nd place = 19.7 percentage points

Jon Huntsman:  Total vote percentage = 23.8 percent

Ron Paul:  Total vote percentage = 18.6 percent

Rick Santorum:  Total vote percentage = 9.5 percent

Newt Gingrich:    Total vote percentage = 8.8 percent 

Rick Perry:    Total vote percentage = 1 percent

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Jill Lawrence

Romney and Gingrich Take Their Own Medicine

By Jill Lawrence
January 10, 2012 | 1:05 PM
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It's been fascinating (and let's be honest, quite amusing) to watch Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney cope with tactics they have used, turned against them.

For weeks I wondered if Gingrich would be another Bill Bradley. Don't laugh. The former senator told me toward the end of his 2000 Iowa caucus campaign against Al Gore that he had no plans to shift away from a strategy so aggressively positive that sometimes he even neglected to defend himself against attacks. But what if polls show you can't win that way? I asked. He was immovable. He had to stay positive, he said, because he had to prove that a candidate could win that way.

The results, obviously, proved the opposite.

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Tags: 

Republican nomination race, Republican presidential race
Ron Fournier

As New Hampshire Primary Looms, 5 Things to Look For

By Ron Fournier
January 8, 2012 | 12:47 PM
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In the final days leading up to the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, look for ...

1. ... Jon Huntsman, who posted his strongest debate performance to date on Sunday, to gain ground in the polls. Every vote he picks up will come from Mitt Romney.

2. ... Romney to unleash his rumored organizational power for huge closing rallies. If not, you've got to wonder why. His New Hampshire crowds were lame until he drew close to 1,000 Saturday morning. Sign of things to come?

3. ... Rick Santorum to regret taking the gay-marriage bait in New Hampshire. It killed his Iowa momentum because New Hampshire Republicans are more concerned about the economy than polarizing social issues.

4. ... Newt Gingrich to get cranky with the media and Ron Paul, who's now in second place in polls, to flirt with third.

5. ... Rick Perry to talk up the tea party in South Carolina and act like New Hampshire doesn't mean anything, But it does: He seems to be taking the long way home to Texas (and out of the race).

 

Tags: 

Republican nomination race
George E. Condon Jr.

Gingrich Squawks Back at Chicken Hawk Charge

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 7, 2012 | 9:16 PM
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The St. Anselm debate got a little nasty and awfully personal when Rep. Ron Paul stuck by his accusation earlier this week that former Speaker Newt Gingrich is a "chicken hawk" because he accepted deferments that kept him out of military service during the Vietnam War. "At least I went when I was called up," said the 76-year-old Paul who was a flight surgeon in the Air Force in the early '60s.

Paul made the charge on Wednesday when he first talked about Gingrich's reaction when he was eligible for the draft. "Guess what he thought about danger? He chickened out on that and got deferments and didn't even go."

Asked by ABC's George Stephanopoulos if he would again call Gingrich a chicken hawk, Paul responded, "Yeah, I think people who don't serve when they could and they get three or four or even five deferments... they have no right to send our kids off to war."

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Tags: 

campaign, debate, Gingrich, New Hampshire, Paul
George E. Condon Jr.

Santorum In From The Wings

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 7, 2012 | 9:13 PM
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You needn't have read any newspapers or seen any polls to know who posted a better than expected showing in the Iowa caucuses. All you had to do is notice who the debate sponsors placed in the center of the stage. After being lost in the wings for the previous 13 debates, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania was allowed to be seen.

There he was right next to front-runner Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts. No accident there. They were separated by only eight votes in Iowa and by only about five feet on the stage at St. Anselm College. It allows the ABC cameras to put the two candidates in the same shot reacting to what is being said.

This time, the candidates stuck on the wings - and generally out of camera shot - were former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman on the left and Texas Gov. Rick Perry on the right. From stage left to right, the candidates were Huntsman, Rep. Ron Paul, Romney, Santorum, former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Perry.

The debate is sponsored by ABC News, Yahoo! News, and WMUR-TV, ABC's Hearst-owned affiliate in Manchester.

Tags: 

campaign, debate, New Hampshire, Romney, Santorum
George E. Condon Jr.

Why You Avoid Senate-speak in Campaigns

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 6, 2012 | 4:15 PM
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Ron Fournier was quick to observe that Rick Santorum's campaign appearances often are "marred by loquaciousness" because "Santorum doesn't know when to stop talking." No surprise there. Santorum was a senator. For two terms. Twelve years of "Senate-speak." More than a decade of filibusters.

It calls to mind a campaign moment from 32 years ago. Howard Baker was an enormously respected person in Washington after 13 years in the Senate and four years as Senate Minority Leader. He believed it was time to take that prestige and respect on the road and run for president.

But he soon learned that Senate-speak does not travel well. At a town hall meeting in New Hampshire, Baker listened to one woman. Then, responding, he started out, "The gentle-lady makes a good point..."

The looks at the meeting let Baker know that that was not how the folks in New Hampshire talk. Baker ended up in a weak third place, with only 13 percent of the vote to Ronald Reagan's 50 percent and George H.W. Bush's 23 percent.

It is one reason why, before 2008, Americans had only twice elevated sitting U.S. senators into the White House -- Warren Harding and John F. Kennedy. It's enough to make a gentle-lady blush.

Tags: 

Campaign, New Hampshire, Reagan, Santorum
George E. Condon Jr.

Republicans Need To Perfect Those Election Night Speeches

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 4, 2012 | 1:28 PM
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There must be something in the Iowa air that impels politicians to give off-key speeches after the votes have been cast in the caucuses. Eight years after Howard Dean committed political suicide by screaming out the names of states and four years after Hillary Clinton put so many oldsters on stage that she looked like she was taping an AARP commercial, the Republican candidates Tuesday night gave us so many fresh memories to cherish.

There was Ron Paul declaring, "I'm waiting for the day when we can say we're all Austrians now." The Texas congressman was referring to the Austrian school of economics and his favorite economist, Freidrich von Hayek. But television viewers could be excused if they wondered whether the rally would break into a rousing singing of "Edelweiss." And Paul wasn't finished with the strangeness. In a first in modern American politics, he welcomed to the stage an active-duty soldier wearing his camouflage uniform and critical of American foreign policy.

Corporal Jesse Thorsen, of West Des Moines, is only 28 years old so perhaps he could be excused for forgetting the Defense Department regulation hammered into all members of the Armed Forces that they may not "participate in partisan political... rallies" and "cannot appear at any kind of political forum in uniform." But Paul, himself a veteran, should have known better than to put Thorsen in a position where he could be disciplined by the Army.

A lighter - but also odd - touch was in Rep. Michele Bachmann's valedictory after her sixth place finish. She praised her husband, Marcus, but drew a wince from him when she disclosed that on the day before the caucuses "he was out buying doggie sunglasses for our dog Boomer."

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Tags: 

Bachmann, campaign, Clinton, Gingrich, Iowa, Jesse Jackson, Paul, Romney
Alex Roarty

Rick Santorum, Stealth New Hampshire Contender?

By Alex Roarty
January 4, 2012 | 12:33 PM
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BEDFORD, N.H. - Bill Cahill says he has visual proof that Rick Santorum's campaign has built an organization outside of Iowa capable of carrying on the momentum he gained after Iowa.

"It's here, the schedule is here," Cahill said Tuesday, holding up a thick stack of papers. Behind a cover page labeled "confidential," it contains a detailed itinerary of the former Pennsylvania senator's schedule for the next six days in the Granite State, Cahill said, evidence he'll be able to hit the ground running when he arrives for this first post-Iowa event Wednesday night.

After his 8-vote loss to Mitt Romney in Iowa on Tuesday, Santorum will have to prove whether he can succeed in states even without an aggressive retail-politicking effort. His near victory in Iowa was attributable largely to campaigning in the state longer and harder than anyone else in the field, a luxury he won't have now that the primaries take place one week after another.


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Tags: 

Republican nomination race, Republican Party, Republican presidential race
George E. Condon Jr.

Best News for Obama is That the Caucuses Are Over

By George E. Condon Jr.
January 3, 2012 | 10:52 PM
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Anything that keeps the Republican race unsettled and keeps the GOP from rallying behind a presumptive winner is good news for the White House. So the three-way logjam in the vote count and Mitt Romney's failure to come out of the Iowa caucuses with a clear win keeps the race going and makes it more likely that the remaining contenders aim more of their attacks on each other.

For President Obama, the best part about the Iowa caucuses is that they are over and the Republican candidates are fleeing the state where they have been encamped for much of the last two years, taking their aggressively anti-Obama television barrage with them.

Even though it has only six electoral votes, Iowa is a state the president counts on to win his second term and the millions of dollars of negative ads could not help but plant doubts about him in a state he won comfortably last time. Little noticed amid all the noise on the Republican side, though, the president's campaign organization made the best out of a bad situation. Even though they were unopposed, they used the Democratic caucuses as an organizing tool.

Nothing in recent days brought more joy to campaign aides than when New York Times correspondent Jeff Zeleny, a onetime Iowan, proclaimed that Obama had "the best organized campaign in Iowa." Four years after focusing on boosting the turnout - and succeeding beyond any expectation - the Democrats focused this year on quietly expanding what one senior aide called its "unrivaled organization."

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Tags: 

campaign, Iowa caucus, Obama
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