Can Santorum Survive?
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's campaign moved quickly Saturday night to squash any speculation that his campaign is over. But there's a reason to speculate: Santorum's disappointing finish shows he has all but lost the race to become the anti-Mitt Romney alternative to Newt Gingrich.
Exit polls indicate that Santorum will finish a distant third in tonight's South Carolina primary, well behind Gingrich and Romney and only marginally ahead of Rep. Ron Paul. Santorum's campaign announced a 2:00 p.m. rally in Coral Springs, Florida, tomorrow, sending the signal that they're not finished yet. But tonight's results show Santorum's days are pretty well numbered.
That's despite Santorum's surprisingly good fortunes over the last month. He spent the vast majority of his campaign mired in the low single digits, then surged at exactly the right time to take advantage of a weak Republican field to win the Iowa caucuses -- though he only got to claim credit for that win late this week, after ballot snafus marred the caucuses. Santorum even got to claim support from major figures in the evangelical movement after they gathered to endorse his candidacy in Texas last weekend.
But luck shines on more than one person, and it's illuminating Gingrich tonight. Not only did Gingrich benefit from strong debate performances and from a timely endorsement by Texas Gov. Rick Perry, he also got a little help from his friends in the media.
Republican voters love to hate the news media, and they tend to reward any of their own who come under perceived attacks. ABC News's interview with Gingrich's ex-wife, and CNN's decision to give Gingrich an opportunity to play the victim at the beginning of Thursday's debate ultimately helped an already-surging candidate climb over the top.
In the latest milepost in the race to become the anti-Romney, Gingrich beat Santorum among every demographic that mattered: Gingrich beat Santorum 45 percent to 23 percent among those who called themselves very conservative. Gingrich won 42 percent of born-again evangelical voters, while Romney won 22 percent and Santorum finished with 20 percent. Gingrich took 45 percent among those who said abortion should always be illegal, while Santorum got 28 percent of those voters.
For the 26 percent who said the candidates' religious beliefs mattered a great deal -- code, perhaps, for those who were concerned about Romney's Mormonism -- Gingrich beat Santorum 43 percent to 31 percent.
Santorum won two notable segments, including a majority of those who said abortion was the most important issue (though they made up just 8 percent of the electorate), and 38 percent of those who said moral character was the most important quality for a candidate to have.
The race now moves from South Carolina to Florida, a state that will award its delegates to the eventual winner. Santorum's campaign has said it has the money to continue, though advertising in the state is a very expensive proposition.
But the identity of the anti-Romney has been revealed -- and it's not Rick Santorum. How long can he survive when the Gingrich-vs.-Romney feud dominates media coverage and deprives him oxygen? Barring an unforeseen turnaround and a win in Florida, probably not long.
Join the Discussion
The National Journal Group has the right (but not the obligation) to monitor the comments and to remove any materials it deems inappropriate.
Comments powered by Disqus