Obama Struggling In Battleground States
President Obama's reelection team has spun multiple pathways to an electoral vote majority, but a glance at his state-by-state approval ratings throughout 2011 suggests the campaign has been doing a lot of bluffing.
First, the good news for Team Obama: His political standing is in respectable shape in traditionally Democratic Midwestern battlegrounds, like Wisconsin, Michigan and the more Republican heartland state of Iowa (46 approval/46 disapproval). Obama's numbers in Virginia are better than in other battleground states - 45 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove. And his numbers in North Carolina (44/49 approve/disapprove) and Florida (44/48 approve/disapprove) and even Georgia (45/48 approve/disapprove) aren't good, but given his overall numbers, they are relatively decent.
The bad news: His job approval ratings in the other battleground states are solidly underwater and, in many states, worse than publicly perceived. In Colorado, seen as a gateway to aggressively contesting the Southwest, Obama scored a net -12 job approval (40/52) throughout the year. In Nevada, also seen as a major bellwether, Obama has a 41 percent approval rating, with 50 percent of respondents disapproving. In the critical battleground state of Ohio, 50 percent of voters disapprove of his performance, with only 42 percent approving. In the must-win state of Pennsylvania, Obama's job approval is underwater, with 45 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving.
Some unpleasant surprises abound for the Obama campaign, too. New Mexico has been seen as a Democratic-leaning state because of its voting history and significant Hispanic population. But Obama's performance there -- 42 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable -- isn't much different than his weak standing in the other Southwestern battlegrounds. The Obama campaign has been arguing it has an outside shot at contesting Arizona, but his approval rating is at 40 percent, with 52 percent disapproving.
In New Hampshire, a state that John Kerry carried in 2004, Obama's job approval is at 39 percent, with 54 percent disapproving. It's a state that, with Romney heading the GOP ticket, is starting to look out of reach.
Keep in mind the data is from throughout 2011, reflecting as
much the past year as the present. But
Obama's approval hasn't budged all that much throughout the year, dipping in
the low-40s in Gallup's
daily tracking, and inching upwards to 46 percent in the most recent three-day
track.
Based on these numbers, the most plausible path for the president's re-election runs through Virginia, Florida and Iowa. That wasn't a scenario Team Obama drew up in its spin sessions, but if Gallup's numbers are to be believed, it may be the most likely.
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