Iowa Reaffirms Romney as Odds-on Favorite

The two biggest threats to Romney finished out of the running: Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Their donor bases and political standing had made them the most likely candidate to emerge as a conservative alternative to Romney.

(RELATED: Iowa's Other Winners and Losers)

Now, suddenly, they are limping out of Iowa -- Gingrich to New Hampshire and Perry to Texas, where he will likely call it quits -- and the question remains: Who will be the anybody-but-Romney candidate? Santorum laid claim to that title with a late surge in Iowa, but others have emerged as the conservative favorite -- and fallen.

The race now moves to New Hampshire, where Romney is well known as the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts. He holds a massive lead in New Hampshire polls, and has built by far the field's best political organization. Sen. John McCain, the 2008 GOP presidential nominee and two-time winner of the New Hampshire primary, plans to travel to the Granite State today to endorse Romney, two GOP sources said, adding his rock star aura to Romney's charisma-challenged campaign.

If Romney wins New Hampshire, he would be the first non-incumbent Republican to sweep Iowa and the Granite State since the modern caucuses were formed. There is a reason why that's never been done: Republican coalitions in Iowa and New Hampshire are mirror images of one another and, taken together, reflect the broad GOP electorate. In other words, a candidate who can win older, more conservative GOP voters in Iowa as well as white-collar, independent-minded Republicans in New Hampshire should be able to win everywhere.

(PICTURES: Scenes from Iowa)

Stop Romney in South Carolina? Well, he has essentially already won over a GOP coalition that resembles South Carolina's diverse electorate: Iowa plus New Hampshire equals South Carolina.

The rest of the calendar after South Carolina favors the establishment's favorite candidate, Romney, even more.

Of course, it's too early to declare the race over. In politics, a lot can happen in a little time, especially to a candidate as flawed as Romney in a race as volatile as this one.

Still, the former Massachusetts governor learned many lessons from his failed 2008 run and built a smart, disciplined campaign in New Hampshire and elsewhere. More important, he was blessed with a relatively weak field of rivals who are dividing anti-Romney conservative voters and barely uttering a negative word about the front-runner. 

"You'd rather be lucky than good," said former New Hampshire GOP Chairman Steve Duprey who is not backing any candidate. "But it's best if you're both."

Paul showed in Iowa that he is capable of bringing new voters into the GOP fold, particularly young ones. Entrance polls showed that the Iowa voting coalition was younger and more independent than in 2008, mostly due to Paul's efforts.

The GOP establishment can't ignore Paul. While the quirky, isolationist candidate is highly unlikely to win the nomination, he could earn a chunk of delegates and the convention leverage that comes with them.

(GRAPHIC: Who Caucused?)

While Santorum will get a boost out of Iowa with his eleventh-hour surge, he has no money or infrastructure in the states beyond Iowa. Still, his Iowa bounce could put a dent into Romney's New Hampshire lead and give Santorum standing to challenge Romney in South Carolina. Santorum has visited New Hampshire nearly as much as Romney, and his national campaign manager, Mike Biundo, is a New Hampshire operative.

Entrance polls showed that Santorum fared best among voters who favor social issues and were looking for a candidate with strong, moral character. 

Romney tended to appeal to older, wealthier and better educated Iowans. Most important: The quality most sought by voters in a candidate was his or her ability to defeat President Obama, and nearly half of the "electability" voters backed Romney. 

That is a pattern Romney needs to repeat in the coming states: Republicans swallowing concerns about his ideology to back the candidate most likely to beat Obama. Romney aimed his post-caucus speech squarely at that sentiment, virtually ignoring his GOP rivals while attacking Obama as a "failed president." He looked and sounded like a nominee.

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But he's not the nominee. Romney still has not shown that he can defeat a single rival who galvanizes conservative voters. Nor has he had to face concerted, sustained attacks on his record and character. 

Gingrich promised to change that Tuesday night, sharply criticizing Romney's on several fronts in a preview of his New Hampshire strategy. "We are not going to run nasty ads," Gingrich said. "But I do reserve the right to tell the truth. If the truth appears negative, that might be more of a comment on (Romney's) record."

He attacks Romney in a New Hampshire newspaper ad Wednesday, and will go full-bore in both New Hampshire debates this weekend. If Gingrich can afford negative TV ads, he'll air them. If he doesn't, that's a blessing for Romney, a candidate who thus far is both lucky and good.