The High Stakes for Republicans in New Hampshire
January 9, 2012 | 8:29 PM
The suspense is killing us. Seriously.
Sure, Mitt Romney is a near-certain bet to win the New Hampshire primary Tuesday. But the size of his margin will be an important measure of his survival skills in the face a bombardment that promises to continue into South Carolina, the next battleground.
The stakes for the other Republican presidential hopefuls are, if anything, even higher. One or two could burst out of the state with new energy. The rest will stagger into South Carolina for what likely will be a last stand. But the polling of New Hampshire is tight enough that's hard to predict who will be in each category.
The first-in-the-nation primary comes against a backdrop of GOP malaise. A new CBS News poll shows nearly six in 10 Republicans want another candidate to join the field. That's not exactly a ringing vote of confidence for the White House wannabes who have been eating and sleeping on the road for months. Even worse, that number has actually gone up 12 points since October -- suggesting that familiarity is not breeding content.
Assuming no sudden reversals by Jeb Bush, Haley Barbour, Chris Christie or Mitch Daniels, this is it. With Rick Perry waiting for the race to move to South Carolina, here are the stakes for the five-man New Hampshire field:
1. Mitt Romney. His ceiling in New Hampshire has never been as low as
the 25 percent or so that he gets in national polls. He's been as much
as 30 points ahead of his closest rival, but that has shrunk
considerably. A double-digit victory margin would prove Romney has
loyalists he can rely on even when he's being attacked as a tax-hiking,
flip-flopping, ruthless capitalist. A single-digit win would be
demoralizing to Republicans who believe Romney is their most electable
prospect. The rest of the field would be inspired to pile on him even
more in hopes of unifying the not-Romney vote in South Carolina's Jan.
21 primary.Sure, Mitt Romney is a near-certain bet to win the New Hampshire primary Tuesday. But the size of his margin will be an important measure of his survival skills in the face a bombardment that promises to continue into South Carolina, the next battleground.
The stakes for the other Republican presidential hopefuls are, if anything, even higher. One or two could burst out of the state with new energy. The rest will stagger into South Carolina for what likely will be a last stand. But the polling of New Hampshire is tight enough that's hard to predict who will be in each category.
The first-in-the-nation primary comes against a backdrop of GOP malaise. A new CBS News poll shows nearly six in 10 Republicans want another candidate to join the field. That's not exactly a ringing vote of confidence for the White House wannabes who have been eating and sleeping on the road for months. Even worse, that number has actually gone up 12 points since October -- suggesting that familiarity is not breeding content.
Assuming no sudden reversals by Jeb Bush, Haley Barbour, Chris Christie or Mitch Daniels, this is it. With Rick Perry waiting for the race to move to South Carolina, here are the stakes for the five-man New Hampshire field:
2. Jon Huntsman. He keeps talking about beating "market expectations." Expectations for him are pretty low, given that he has practically lived in the state for months, invested more than $2 million of his own money into his campaign, and only recently broken into double digits -- and only in some polls. If he finishes third, it's hard to see him getting traction in South Carolina. If he soars into second place, more infusions of his personal wealth and an independent super PAC reportedly financed in part by his father could help him capitalize on momentum. But polls show Huntsman in low single digits in South Carolina. So it would be a standing start in a state that's not a natural fit.
3. Newt Gingrich. Like Huntsman, Gingrich is part of the scrum competing for second and third place. He may be in it to win it, but he seems more determined to wreak revenge on Romney for the rhetorical beating that Romney's allies inflicted on Gingrich in Iowa TV ads. He runs the risk of pushing voters to other candidates, such as Huntsman, simply to escape the Gingrich-Romney crossfire. With a super PAC ally already promising to spend $3.4 million in South Carolina to attack Romney as a corporate raider, Gingrich at this point appears resolved to compete there to make a point -- no matter where he finishes in New Hampshire.
4. Rick Santorum. He blew in to New Hampshire on a gust of Iowa success, then promptly failed to adopt what seemed to be the logical strategy. That is, he unleashed his persona as a cultural crusader instead of pivoting to his other persona as a son of blue-collar western Pennsylvania, attuned to the need to revive manufacturing. An impressive Santorum showing would involve consolidating conservatives, Christian and otherwise, coming in second, and showing he is the obvious conservative alternative to Romney.
5. Ron Paul. This is the guy everyone else has to get past to move into second place. Paul's unusual mix of isolationism and libertarianism virtually ensures he will not be the GOP nominee, but his devotees have lifted him to second place in every poll. Paul has money and is using it in part to attack Santorum and Gingrich. Those two and Huntsman are all close enough to potentially overtake Paul. If all of them fail, then New Hampshire will produce no clear alternative to Romney -- and Perry will still be a contender for that slot.
Join the Discussion
The National Journal Group has the right (but not the obligation) to monitor the comments and to remove any materials it deems inappropriate.
Comments powered by Disqus