Romney's $5 Million Ad Blitz
A central strength most pundits (including this one) have cited when describing Mitt Romney as the Republican front-runner is money: He has it, his opponents do not.
The 20 days leading up to Super Tuesday will show whether we were right. Romney and a super PAC that backs his campaign are about to embark on an all-out television blitz aimed at tearing down Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, an assault that already adds up to more than $5 million in key primary states -- and there are few signs either of Romney's rivals have the financial ability to respond.
Ad buy data we've obtained from sources keeping an eye on the race show both Romney's campaign and Restore Our Future, the pro-Romney super PAC, are buying much more television time than previously thought. Restore Our Future will spend a total of $1.25 million in Michigan in the two weeks leading up to the state's February 28 primary; Romney's campaign is augmenting that with $617,000 in Michigan ads this week, though they haven't bought time next week yet.
(The amount each candidate has reserved on MI TV this week, according to Hotline sources:
2/14-20 Det G/K F/S Lan T/C Mar Alp Cable Total Romney $292K $126K $52K $65K $35K $47K $617K ROF $180K $80K $48K $53K $57K $21K $27K $155K $623K Santorum $42K $42K
Notes on markets: Det is Detroit. G/K is Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo. F/S is Flint and Saginaw. Lan is Lansing. T/C is Traverse City. Mar is Marquette. Alp is Alpena. ROF is the pro-Romney Restore Our Future. The pro-Santorum Red White and Blue Fund has not purchased MI ad time.)
Restore Our Future is also placing big advertising bets on Arizona ($121,000 this week, $493,000 next week); Ohio ($112,000 this week, $634,000 next week); Tennessee ($108,000 this week, $426,000 next week); Oklahoma ($36,000 this week, $199,000 next week); and Georgia ($119,000 this week, $554,000 next week.
All told, the Romney-backing PAC is spending $5 million on television advertising over the next two weeks, an incredible amount usually reserved for the final days of a general election campaign, not a primary battle.
And at the moment, they appear to have the playing field to themselves. Neither the pro-Santorum Red White and Blue Fund nor the pro-Gingrich Winning Our Future are up with advertisements of their own, leading some to wonder whether the billionaire benefactors who have bankrolled those PACs have decided to sit on their hands (Winning Our Future spent $69,000 on cable ads last week, but Red White and Blue Fund hasn't bought any advertisements since spending $126,000 in Minnesota, a state that held its contest on February 4).
But Romney apparently needs the money to take down his rivals. A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows Santorum leading Romney by seven points in Ohio; a Mason-Dixon poll conducted for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shows Gingrich leading Romney by 14 points; and several less-reliable IVR polls show Santorum leading in Michigan.
Romney and his allies have the financial advantage to dominate the conversation over the next several weeks. As it turns out, he'll need it.
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