Santorum Surging, But Challenges Await
February 8, 2012 | 2:02 AM
The best night of his presidential campaign had Rick Santorum setting his sights a little higher than just the next primary.
"I don't stand here to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney," he told a jubilant audience of supporters in Minnesota, whose caucuses handed him one of three eye-popping triumphs Tuesday. "I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama."
Eyeing a match-up with the White House seemed preposterous only 24 hours ago for the onetime U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, who was last seen limping to a last-place finish in the Nevada caucuses. But the trio of victories in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado - the latter of which might count as the shock of the GOP race -- has transformed him overnight into front-runner Mitt Romney's chief rival.
Now, Santorum is faced with a task that has thus far proven insurmountable this primary: Can he sustain his momentum to become a viable, long-term challenger to Romney for the party's nomination? Every other potential anti-Romney candidate - and the race has had at least five who have auditioned for the role - have withered under scrutiny almost as quickly as they surged to the front of the field.
To do so, he'll need to broaden his coalition and ramp up his fundraising more than he's proved capable to date. It's a challenging task, but one some Republicans are no longer dismissing out of hand.
Santorum has been in this position before, after a strong showing in Iowa (where he was declared the victor two weeks later). He was unable to build on the success in New Hampshire, whose proximity to Massachusetts made it a Romney stronghold.
Santorum's greatest threat comes from a Romney campaign whose fundraising and political machine that has thus far proven too formidable for his Republican foes. Romney was able to bury the last candidate with momentum, Newt Gingrich, last week in Florida after heavily outspending the former House speaker there. It only began to focus on Santorum in recent days, a precursor to a certain deluge of criticism coming after Tuesday.
Romney won't have to look hard for way to attack Santorum, whose 16-year career in Washington provides an array of easy targets. The former governor has already criticized his support for congressional earmarks, and Santorum will also be forced to explain his 2004 endorsement of then moderate Republican Sen. Arlen Specter against a Republican challenger (Specter later switched into the Democratic Party).
More broadly, Romney can argue his business background makes him better suited to turn around the country than a career politician - a tactic that helped him overcome Gingrich.
Santorum's campaign argues his record is more conservative than Gingrich's, making it easier to draw contrasts with Romney.
"The advantage we have ... is that Rick Santorum opposed the bailouts, opposed cap-and-trade, and opposed healthcare mandates," said John Brabender, Santorum's senior political adviser.
If he wants to hit back at Romney's attacks effectively, Santorum will have to raise considerably more money than he has thus far. In other words, can he turn Tuesday's momentum into financial support?
"What will be interesting to see is how much money will come in for Santorum over the next 72 hours," said Doug Heye, a GOP consultant. "That will give him the opportunity to turn a good (night) into something more substantial."
One advantage he does carry: After the Maine caucuses end Feb. 11, the next GOP contests, Arizona and Michigan, don't occur until Feb. 28. Santorum will have three weeks to raise money without a loss potentially thwarting his momentum, as happened when he suffered a fourth-place finish in New Hampshire.
Arizona and Michigan are each favorable for Romney - Arizona has a large Mormon population, and his dad was once the governor of Michigan. But Santorum benefits from the perception Gingrich, after who finished poorly in Minnesota and Colorado (he didn't qualify for the ballot in Missouri), is fading. The anti-Romney Republicans who have yet to unite behind a candidate might finally have found their candidate.
"If the conservatives, grassroots Republicans and Tea Party members coalesce behind Santorum, look out," said Keith Appell, a conservative strategist. "He now has a legitimate shot at the nomination."
Beth Reinhard contributed to this article.
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