Biden Plays Attack Dog on Bain

For the first time, Vice President Joe Biden is expected to take up a leading attack against presumptive nominee Mitt Romney in the general election: Romney's record at the private equity firm Bain Capital.

A manufacturing plant in Youngstown, Ohio will offer the optics for today's assault on Romney's practice of taking over struggling companies and in some cases, walking away with multimillion-dollar profits while the employees got sacked. In other cases (frequently overlooked by Obama's campaign), the companies thrived.

The role of the vice president as attack dog is well-established, and Biden's speech is a reminder of one of President Obama's key advantages until Romney picks a running mate. The president has a wing man; Romney does not.

"The mechanics of campaigning mean that the vice president commands the attention of whatever media market he is in, so today he'll be saturating a battleground state like Ohio,'' said Mike Feldman, who worked for Vice President Al Gore. "That is an asset the Obama campaign can deploy that Romney can't yet.''

Biden, one of four children in an Irish Catholic family and raised in Scranton, Pa., and Wilmington, Del., also carries more street cred with white, blue-collar workers than his boss. Biden can connect his life story with the experiences of the workers who lost their jobs under the Bain and with his Rust Belt audience.
 
According to excerpts of his remarks released by the campaign, Biden will focus on GST Steel, a mill in Kansas City taken over by Bain in 1993 that is also the focus of new television ads aired by the Obama campaign and the Priorities USA super PAC.

Romney Gets Facts Wrong on Gay Adoption

When Republican presumptive nominee Mitt Romney suggested he was in favor of gay adoption and then quickly backtracked, it was widely reported as yet another flip-flop by the former Massachusetts governor.

But Romney also got his facts wrong when he said, "I simply acknowledge the fact that gay adoption is legal in all states but one.''

Not even close. According to the Human Rights Campaign, which tracks state laws relating to gay rights, the District of Columbia and just 18 states -- Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington -- allow joint adoption by same-sex couples. Same-sex couples have successfully petitioned to adopt in some jurisdictions in Colorado and Minnesota.

Florida's ban on gay adoption was overturned in 2010 after a foster parent and his partner petitioned to adopt two boys that had been in their care for six years.

Romney's mistake reflects his sometimes-awkward efforts to position himself as someone who is conservative enough for Republican voters but not too conservative for independents and Democrats.

UPDATE from the campaign: 

Only one state - Mississippi - explicitly bars same-sex adoption by statute. Miss. Code Sec. 93-17-3(b). Utah is frequently cited as another state that bars same-sex adoption, but that prohibition applies to any cohabitation relationship involving persons of any gender who are not married.  And, regardless, the point Gov. Romney is making is that this is a state issue, which is what he thinks it should be.

Bain Capital: Obama's Great White, Blue-Collar Hope

The fight for Joe the Plumber is alive and well.

Barack Obama is targeting white, blue-collar voters - who largely eluded him in 2008 and were personified by the aforementioned John McCain supporter -- in a powerful new ad airing in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Virginia.

The hunt for the white, blue-collar vote continues to be one of the biggest challenges for President Obama, adding to the considerable pressure on his campaign to pump up turnout among educated and minority voters. A recent Gallup poll found Romney with a whopping lead over Obama among white voters without a post-graduate education, 56 to 34 percent. Recent Quinnipiac surveys in Ohio and Pennsylvania found Obama trailing by eight and nine percentage points, respectively, among white voters without college degrees.

So how does the Obama campaign persuade these working-class voters to reconsider the president? By trashing presumptive nominee Mitt Romney as a greedy corporate titan who profited on the backs of middle-class workers.

Will Toxic GOP Governors Infect Romney?

Florida Gov. Rick Scott didn't endorse Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney until last month, after rival Rick Santorum dropped out. It was a tardy and lackluster show of support. "Mitt Romney will be our party's nominee, and it is critical that all Republicans coalesce," Scott said in a written statement, as if forced to acknowledge the inevitable, like it or not. The two former corporate executives, who could probably spend all day swapping success stories, have never campaigned together.

Still, if Democrats have their way, voters will see Romney and Scott as the great bromance of the 2012 election. That is, when President Obama's party is not trying to yoke Romney to two other tightfisted, unpopular governors--John Kasich of Ohio and Scott Walker of Wisconsin--in an effort to drag down the GOP nominee in pivotal states.

Polling conducted by one influential Democratic group found that 11 percent more Florida voters said they had "very major doubts" about Romney when he was linked to Scott. The poll, which was not released publicly, tested a negative policy message against Romney, then tested it again while also tying the message to Scott.

Voters are not necessarily biased against a candidate who belongs to the party of a politician they don't like, but Democrats assert that the strategy can be effective if there is obvious common ground.

Click here for full story, only available to subscribers.

The County that Picks Presidents

TAMPA, Fla. -- Welcome to the molten core of the political universe, the hottest battleground in the biggest battleground state. Since 1960, Hillsborough County has called every single presidential election except for one--and there's no reason to think that voters here won't do it again.

Look around this county of 1.2 million and you'll find a mash-up of past and future: a solidly Democratic city bracketed by Republican-leaning suburbs; strawberry fields, ranch-style homes, and gentrified urban neighborhoods; Puerto Ricans, Cuban-Americans, African-Americans, Midwestern retirees, college kids, active military, and young families; the brick and wrought iron of historic Ybor City, and the stucco and terra-cotta of the Sun City Center senior community.

The county boasts the nation's seventh-largest seaport, the fourth-largest zoo, three major-league sports teams, and an annual festival honoring pirate invasions of the 18th and 19th centuries. It sits at the intersection of Interstate 75, which traverses the United States from north to south, and I-4, which bisects Florida from east to west. This is holy ground for pollsters and advertisers scouting a cross section of America.

"To me, it's the linchpin," said Peter Hart, a veteran Democratic pollster who has overseen dozens of focus groups in the county, including one last month that analyzed Republicans' views of presumptive presidential nominee Mitt Romney. "If you want to understand the swings in the electorate, you are likely to find them in Hillsborough County. It tends to be a good mirror."

Click here to keep reading the story, available only to subscribers.

Setting the Record Straight on Rubio's Am Ex

Even if Florida Sen. Marco Rubio isn't getting vetted by the Mitt Romney campaign (yet) as a potential running mate, he is enduring an unusual amount of grilling. On Monday, he acknowledged in an interview with Fox News (around 16:20) that it was "a mistake'' when he was a state lawmaker to use an American Express card paid for by the Republican Party of Florida to pick up thousands of dollars in personal expenses. He blamed some of the charges on a confused travel agent and others on his own sloppy wallet draw, but he insisted that he reimbursed American Express for all personal expenses. "The Republican Party of Florida never paid my personal expenses,'' he said. He also said the matter was "totally resolved years ago.''

Not so. Even putting aside the obvious -- why would such a savvy politician continually use a state party credit card for non-party business, requiring him to reimburse the credit card company after the bill had been paid? -- questions remain about the more than $100,000 in charges from Nov. 2006 to Nov. 2008. Read the stories written by The Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times here and here and  here and here.

Rubio never released his party credit card records from 2005 and 2006. As a lawmaker, he also raised about $600,000 for two political committees that reimbursed him for tens of thousands of dollars in unitemized meals and travel expenses.

The former Speaker of the House wasn't the worst or the only credit card maven in Florida -- plenty of Republican party leaders and elected officials used  the well-tended state party's coffers as personal slush funds. But as the rest of the country now knows, Rubio was undoubtedly was one of the most talented and ambitious Florida Republicans to take advantage of the state party's largesse and sloppy bookkeeping. Whether the issue is relevant to his qualifications as a potential vice president will be up to the Romney campaign and the voters.

Nugent, Maher and the Silly Season

You know the presidential campaign already has reached the silly stage when there are calls for the presumptive Republican nominee to repudiate Ted Nugent.

Nugent is, after all, an aging rock star from Detroit by way of Crazytown, USA, best known for his ode to promiscuity called "Cat Scratch Fever." He has reinvented himself as a minor celebrity in the Republican Party by spewing noxious political tirades instead of noxious lyrics.

Most recently, Nugent took to the stage at the National Rifle Association convention in St. Louis to promote Mitt Romney, his presidential pick, and condemn the "vile, evil, America-hating administration." He added, "If Barack Obama becomes the president in November again, I will either be dead or in jail by this time next year."

Fighting words, no doubt, laced with an extra dose of vitriol. But, considering the source, hardly cause for publicly vented outrage from the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, who demanded that Romney denounce his guitar-toting supporter. The ginned-up controversy comes at the same time Republicans are saying the president should decry a crude remark by television host Bill Maher and instruct a pro-Obama super PAC to return his $1 million donation.

These incidents raise questions about how much responsibility candidates bear when supporters make tone-deaf, inflammatory statements. At a time when just about any self-promoter can find a way to get on TV or be  or be an Internet sensation, when a rich donor can have an outsized influence on a campaign through a super PAC, those questions grow more pertinent and complicated than ever.

Subscribers keep reading here.

Which 'Anti-Gun President' is the NRA Talking About?

Much of the conversation surrounding the National Rifle Association's annual meeting on Friday pertained to Republican presumptive nominee Mitt Romney's past flip-flops on gun control.

But also noteworthy was the characterization of President Obama's record on the issue. Chris Cox, the NRA's chief lobbyist, on Friday called President Obama "the most anti-gun, anti-freedom president.''

Pants on Fire. President Obama, when presented with golden opportunities to initiate national conversations on gun control -- after the shootings of U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona and 17-year-old Trayvon Martin in Florida -- has chosen to stay mum. He did write an editorial in the Arizona Daily Star backing stronger background checks two months after the Tucson shooting rampage that killed six people, but he has largely declined to use the bully pulpit since he was stung during the 2008 campaign for scoffing at people who "cling to guns or religion.''

Back in 2009, he abandoned his goal of trying to reinstate the assault weapons ban begun by President Clinton. And in 2010, he signed NRA-backed legislation that allows gun owners to bring their weapons into national parks.

"The most anti-gun president?" Not by a long shot.

Ann Romney Tweets; What Would Hillary Do?

You've come a long way, baby? Somehow the 2012 campaign has regressed  back to 1992 (some would say even decades earlier) when Hillary Clinton kicked up a storm for saying "I suppose I could have stayed home and baked cookies and had teas but what I decided to do was to fulfill my profession which I entered before my husband was in public life.''

The perceived knock on homemakers by the Yale-trained lawyer who went on to become First Lady came to mind when Democratic strategist Hilary Rosen scoffed on CNN Wednesday that the wife of presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney "has never actually worked a day in her life.'' It was an insulting comment that revealed a lesson still unlearned from 1992. Work is work, whether it's a paid office job or unpaid and generally thankless child-rearing. In a move clearly aimed at ginning up outrage among stay-at-home moms, Ann Romney joined Twitter to shoot back: "I made a choice to stay home and raise five boys. Believe me, it was hard work."

Are we still having this debate in 2012? Worse, are we having it in 140 characters or less? Still, Ann Romney's tart response was the smartest move by the Romney campaign yet as it tries to close a yawning gender gap with President Obama. When asked about his deficit of support among women, Romney has repeatedly pointed to his wife's role in the campaign. That's not going to cut it. Then Romney tried to turn the tables on the alleged "war on women'' by claiming 93 percent of the jobs lost in the Obama administration were done by women, a terrific comeback if only it were true. He made the claim at carefully choreograped press conference in which he was surrounded by rows of women.

Gov. Romney, you cannot outsource the gender gap to your wife. Also, women are not props.

Feminists might say all this talk about what women want shows progress. Politicians are fighting for women's votes! Except what's unclear is whether both sides are simply pandering or actually committed to real policy reforms that would make a difference in women's lives. Then we truly will have come a long way.
 

Santorum Surrogate: 'This is By Far the Most Unorganized Organization I've Ever Seen'

From National Journal:

PICTURES
The Top-Paid Current Executives in D.C.

GRAPHICCompensations Compared

The Republican presidential candidate hanging on by his fingernails has beefed up what was a thin campaign schedule this week in Pennsylvania. And if Rick Santorum is getting ready to bow out of the race, as some folks would like to think, he forgot to tell Chuck Laudner, a leading Iowa surrogate who is spending this week in Washington state, trying to drum up support among party activists seeking to be convention delegates.

"It's like herding cats,'' said Laudner, a former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party and ex-chief of staff to Rep. Steve King. "This is by far the most unorganized organization I've ever seen.''

The state held what was essentially a straw poll on March 3. Mitt Romney won, followed by Ron Paul. Santorum ran a close third. But Santorum has been arguing that here and in other states, he will overperform in the little-publicized, arcane county caucuses that actually elect delegates to the convention throughout this month. If Romney fails to get the 1,144 delegates needed to lock down the nomination before the convention, Santorum thinks he could win a floor fight.
 
"These are conservative people who actually want to spend their Saturday in a high school gymnasium for a caucus,'' Laudner said. "They're not Romney people.''

Barack Obama and Marco Rubio Agree on Something

Republicans are taking issue with President Obama's description of the Supreme Court as "an unelected group of people'' in his pre-emptive attack on the possibility of the justices striking down his health care overhaul.

"I'm confident that the Supreme Court will not take what would be an unprecedented, extraordinary step of overturning a law that was passed by a strong majority of a democratically elected Congress," Obama said Monday. "And I'd just remind conservative commentators that for years what we've heard is the biggest problem on the bench was judicial activism or a lack of judicial restraint, that an unelected group of people would somehow overturn a duly constituted and passed law.''

Republicans in Congress and likely presidential nominee Mitt Romney are saying the president went too far.

But guess who else warned recently about a decision from "unelected'' judges? None other than the GOP's rising star, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. "Nine unelected judges will decide the fate of Obamacare in just three months. But you can have your say today,'' Rubio said in an appeal last week from his Reclaim America PAC on behalf of an Ohio Senate candidate. "Help us reach our end of quarter fundraising deadline so that we can support conservatives like Josh Mandel who have pledged to repeal Obamacare.''

Romney Scores Rubio Endorsement -- and More

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican superstar expected to top the vice presidential shortlist, on Wednesday said Mitt Romney has "earned'' the Republican nomination for president and called a potential floor fight at the convention a "recipe for disaster.''

In an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, Rubio didn't name Romney rivals Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich but said it was clear to him they would not be able to win enough delegates to lock down the nomination before the Republican convention.

"I think we're at a stage now where at least two of the candidates have openly admitted that the only way they're going to be able to win the nomination is to have a floor fight in Tampa in August. I don't think there's anything good about that,'' he said. He added, "It's increasingly clear that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee.''

Pressed by Hannity whether he was in fact offering his endorsement, Rubio said yes. But he offered something even better: The rising figure in the conservative and tea party movements vouched for Romney's conservative credentials.

"I have zero doubt in my mind of two things,'' Rubio said. "No. 1 that Mitt Romney will govern as a conservative, and No. 2, that he will be head and shoulders better than the guy who is in the White House right now.''

Expect to see those words sooner rather than later in a television ad.

Rubio has said he had no plans to endorse a candidate almost as firmly as he has insisted he won't be a vice presidential contender. He repeated that Wednesday night saying, "That's not what I intend to be, that's not what I want to be, and that's not what's going to happen.''

Santorum Takes Campaign to the High Court

Rick Santorum is taking his case that Mitt Romney would be a terrible Republican nominee to court. Santorum is in Washington, D.C. Monday just in time for opening arguments on President Obama's health care legislation.

Santorum's planned appearance Monday afternoon at the Supreme Court, with all of the colorful optics and national media exposure it offers, couldn't have come at a  better time for the struggling candidate. Romney's delegate lead has been increasing and more and more prominent Republicans are calling for the party to rally behind him.

Santorum has been arguing that because Romney spearheaded a health care program as governor of Massachusetts that is similar to "Obamacare,'' he would not be be a credible standard bearer for the Republican Party's strongest line of attack. Santorum has made that pitch many times before but it could take on an added resonance on the steps of the Supreme Court.

"It is (Obama's) huge Achilles heel, and we're putting up the one guy who can't make the case,'' Santorum told a handful of reporters over coffee at the Hotel George Monday morning.

Santorum blamed his losses in most of the states that have voted so far on being heavily outspent by Romney. The battle wouldn't be as lopsided against President Obama in a general election that doesn't get underway until after the convention, Santorum contended, if he can keep Romney from winning the required 1,144 delegates before then.

Though most prominent Republicans say a contested convention would be a disaster for the party, Santorum said, "It is the best thing that could happen. To makes this election a two-month election negates Obama's advantages in this race.''

The next contests will be April 3 in Maryland, the District of Columbia and Wisconsin. Wisconsin is expected to be the most competitive of the three states but Santorum said: "I think we'll do well in Wisconsin. I don't think we'll win,'' he said. A few minutes later, he revised his outlook. "It won't be easy but I think we can pull it off.''

Santorum said he will not make a pilgrimage to Capitol Hill as Romney did last week. "I don't call those guys up on the Hill. I don't call governors,'' said the former Pennsylvania senator before heading to a private meeting with donors.

Romney Needs the Little Guy, Not Another Big Fish

Former Gov. Jeb Bush's endorsement of Mitt Romney on Tuesday, which sent the message that it's time for Republicans to rally behind their likely nominee, also raised a question: Who's next?

Speculation immediately centered on South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, one of the most popular leaders in the conservative movement, when word leaked Wednesday that he was meeting with Romney on Capitol Hill.

"I hope something comes of it. We need to get this show on the road,'' said Republican consultant Warren Tompkins, who has advised DeMint, echoing a widely shared sentiment in the Republican establishment. "Jeb's endorsement was a big step forward, and maybe it will be what breaks the dam.''

Alas, National Journal staff writer Dan Friedman reports an endorsement is not forthcoming. However, DeMint offered praise and said that Romney's rivals should do "what's good for the country'' so that the party can focus on beating President Obama.

Among the other big "gets" still on the sidelines in the GOP primary: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who resisted pleadings to get into the race himself; Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who backed Rick Perry before he quit; Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a likely vice presidential shortlister; and former Missisippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who said he voted for Newt Gingrich in his home state's primary last week.

But would nods from any of these guys really make a difference? Romney has had most of the Republican establishment locked up for some time, but his rivals are undeterred. Discontent in the conservative grassroots is what is fueling the campaigns of Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.

"The establishment is not where the naysayers are. The base is missing, and that's not going to change with another endorsement,'' said Republican strategist Kim Alfano, who has advised Daniels. "The big get is getting one of these candidates who are still standing to throw their support to Romney.''

Even Santorum is Sorry Now about Afghanistan

Republicans love to mock President Obama as a serial apologist. Mitt Romney's biography is called "No Apology.'' Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich both chided President Obama late last month for apologizing for the burning of Korans at a U.S. military base. "I think it shows weakness,'' Santorum said.

But Saturday's killings of 16 Afghan civilians, allegedly by a U.S. soldier, have even Santorum favoring a mea culpa.

National Journal's Rebecca Kaplan, who is traveling with the Santorum campaign, reports he said, "Obviously this is a horrible situation where if it turns out to be the case that this person did a horrible wrong and it was a deliberate act, a deliberate act by an American soldier, that is something we should clearly say was something that we should apologize for...It's something that the proper authorities should apologize for, for not doing their job in making sure that something like this wouldn't happen, something like this should not happen in our military period.''

Romney also sounded a repentant tone in a somber statement befitting a wanna-be commander-in-chief. "Governor Romney believes the killings are reprehensible and shares the anguish of the victims' families,'' said campaign spokesman Andrea Saul. "These acts by one soldier are not representative of the courageous and honorable conduct of our armed forces. That soldier should be held to account after a full and rapid investigation and we must be clear that America stands with the Afghan people, not against them."

Their comments come in the wake of a new Washington Post/ABC news poll in which  60 percent say the war in Afghanistan has not been worth fighting. Asked whether the U.S. should withdraw its military troops even if the Afghan army is not adequately trained, 54 percent said yes.

The poll numbers collide against the GOP's traditionally hawkish posture. "You've got to be in this for the long haul,'' said Randy Scheunemann, a top foreign policy advisor to the GOP ticket in 2008. "Pulling the plug, which Newt Gingrich seems to be advocating and Rick Santorum seems to be walking up to that line, would be a very dangerous decision. You can't do that lightly. You've got to think about the consequences...I understand it's unpopular, but the statesmanship and leadership expected of a presidential candidate means they put an assessment of national interests first and foremost.'' 

In an interview Monday morning on NBC's "Today" show, the typically hawkish Santorum said, "Any time you have such a shocking development, I think it's important to take a look and see what the situation is and whether it's possible to continue on...Given all of these additional problems, we have to either make the decision to make a full commitment, which this president has not done, or we have to decide to get out and probably get out sooner given the president's decision to get out in 2014."

Though he didn't call for immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops, Gingrich said Sunday that the U.S. is going to "have to back off that region.''

The First Honest Super PAC Ad

Perhaps none of the Republican presidential candidates has as much riding on Super Tuesday as Newt Gingrich. By his own standards, if he loses his home state of Georgia, his campaign is over. A super-PAC bankrolled by his allies is calling Tuesday's vote "life or death to America as we know and love it.''

That's a little over the top. But the call to action from Winning our Future is unusually frank in its description of one of the weakest GOP fields in decades.

We are not doing this because we are in love with Newt Gingrich.

We are not doing this because we believe Mitt Romney is evil.

Nor because we believe Rick Santorum is a liberal.

We are doing this because we believe that Newt Gingrich is the ONLY way to BEAT BARACK OBAMA. Period.

This may be the first super-PAC appeal that acknowledges its candidate has become unlovable. A USA Today/Gallup poll last month found voters viewed Gingrich more negatively than any other candidate, with 61 percent having an unfavorable view of the former House speaker.

But his super PAC argues he's worth it to "create Barack Obama's worst nightmare - facing Newt Gingrich on the debate stage in front of a national audience.' You may not like him but you're gonna love what he does to Obama on national TV -- that may be the most persuasive pitch from Gingrich's team in weeks.

Obama Ramps Up Campaign Truth Squad

How worried is President Obama about the Republican attack machine in 2012? Today his campaign is unveiling not one, not two, but three web sites devoted to truth squadding.

Anticipating a half billion dollars in attack ads this year, the campaign is launching www.KeepingHisWord.com, www.KeepingGOPHonest.com and www.AttackWatch.com. The web sites address misleading claims by Republicans about the president and their own policies.

In 2008, Obama's campaign created a web site called Fight the Smears, largely in response to false assertions about his citizenship and religion. This year, the campaign is anticipating a much broader assault on the president's record.

This is the second time in recent days that the Obama campaign has let on that it feels outgunned by the pro-Republican gauntlet of super-PACS. Last week, the campaign said Obama was endorsing a super-PAC created in his behalf, Priorities USA, which has posted lackluster funding so far.

Of course, Obama's hands are not totally clean when it comes to truth telling in the heat of a campaign. Politifact, for example, has dinged him for saying his Republican rivals would eliminate all aid to Israel. And with Democrats insisting the election will be a choice between two competing visions, it's expected that the Obama campaign will spend plenty of time and money trying to discredit the Republican nominee.

 

  

Romney Hits Speed Bump Named Santorum

Rick Santorum's unlikely sweep of three Republican contests on Tuesday punctured the aura of inevitability surrounding Mitt Romney's claim to the nomination and nursed the niggling perception that the front-runner can't close the deal with conservatives.

Romney won Minnesota and Colorado in his 2008 presidential bid. On Tuesday, he came in third and second place, respectively. He also lost to Santorum in Missouri.

For Santorum, the trifecta reaped bragging rights but no convention delegates, and it may provide only a fleeting burst of money and momentum for his shoestring campaign. For Romney, who ignored Missouri and downplayed Minnesota, the losses are probably little more than speed bumps on his road to the nomination. He is the only GOP contender with the money and organization demanded of a national campaign that could drag on for months.

But the results on Tuesday give his rivals an opening to keep contesting the nomination and fodder to President Obama's reelection campaign as it seeks to dampen enthusiasm for its likely opponent. The results also showed that the conservative grassroots are pulling the strings in this race, despite efforts by the Republican establishment to annoint Romney.

There are still a few twists and turns left in this primary.

"Tonight's victory should put to bed the idea that the Republican nomination for Mitt Romney is inevitable," said Stuart Roy, an advisor to a super-PAC backing Santorum, after the former Pennsylvania senator was declared the winner in Missouri.

The chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, also gloated. "Tonight was a bad night for Mitt Romney, plain and simple,'' she said in a statement after Minnesota also put Santorum on top. "What should have been a night where he began to consolidate Republican support instead has shown that Republicans are reluctant to get behind him.''

And that was before the news broke that Romney also lost Colorado, a state he seized with 60 percent of the vote in 2008 and expected to win again, as evidence by his decision to spend Tuesday night in Denver. Santorum and Romney took turns leading as the results trickled in after midnight, the agonizing wait reminiscent of their neck-and-neck contest in Iowa. Romney was initially named the winner in Iowa by 8 votes. Seventeen days later, the state party said Santorum had surpassed him by 34 votes.

And like in Iowa, Santorum's success on Tuesday suggested that it pays to show up. He spent the most time of all of the candidates in the three states and virtually had Missouri to himself. Newt Gingrich, long viewed as the bigger threat to Romney, did not even qualify for the ballot in that state. His absence there and thin appeal in Minnesota and Colorado will seriously erode his claim that the race is a two-man contest between him and Romney. Giving away his lack of confidence, he spent Tuesday campaigning in Ohio on the first day of early voting.

"The results tonight are bad news for Newt, but not fundamental game changers,'' said Republican strategist Phil Musser, who is supporting Romney. "It's now clear the race will progress well into the spring, and Romney continues to have a laser-like focus on winning where it matters, as opposed to winning where it is nice.''

Tuesday also dealt setbacks to Ron Paul, the libertarian congressman from Texas who has focused on mobilizing supporters in caucus states. He came in second place in Minnesota and fourth place in Colorado.

The one-two-three punch by Santorum felt particularly jarring since he hasn't won a contest since his come-from-behind finish in the Iowa caucus on Jan. 3. Santorum derived little momentum from the caucus, partly because the state party initially declared him a runner-up and partly because he was ill-prepared for the next contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada. On Tuesday, he finally got to deliver the victory speech he was robbed of in Iowa.

"Wow!'' Santorum told a cheering crowd in St. Charles, Missouri, before the Colorado votes were tallied. "Conservatism is alive and well in Missouri and Minnesota.''

Republicans in these states are known for their socially conservative views, and Santorum has stressed his opposition to abortion and the importance of traditional marriage more than any other candidate. In contrast, Romney, a Mormon who once took moderate positions on abortion and gay rights, has struggled to win over the Christian conservatives who dominate many GOP contests.Those voters presumably boosted Santorum to victory, as they did for Gingrich in South Carolina. Even in Florida, where Romney won handily, Gingrich beat him among the most conservative voters and the strongest supporters of the tea party.
 
Romney had sought to tamp down expectations for Tuesday's contests. His campaign stressed that no delegates would be awarded in any of the three contests and called Missouri "strictly a beauty contest.'' The caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota were only a first step toward naming delegates to the party's national convention, while Missouri's primary was only for show; the state will hold caucuses next month.

In a sign that the Romney campaign saw a Santorum surge looming, it dispatched a top surrogate, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, to attack the former Pennsylvania senator on Monday, after weeks of aggressively targeting Gingrich.

"This was a good night for Rick Santorum,'' Romney said in Denver before the results were tallied in that state, "but I expect to become our nominee with your help.''  He added at the end of his speech, "We've got a long way to go.''

Romney Allies on Both Sides of Immigration Debate

Immigration advocates are raising hackles over today's endorsement of Mitt Romney by former California Gov. Pete Wilson. Wilson, of course, championed California's Proposition 187, which would have barred illegal immigrants from public schools and other government services. The referendum, which passed but was struck down in court, caused a sweeping anti-GOP backlash among Hispanics. "Didn't any of (Romney's) so-called smart operatives tell him that Pete Wilson has lower approval ratings than the devil himself?'' demanded a hyperbolic Frank Sharry, executive director of America's Voice.

The group pointed out in its e-mail blast today that Romnney's backers also include Kris Kobach, the Kansas Secretary of State who helped write the controversial law cracking down on illegal immigrants in Arizona, and Rep. Lamar Smith of Texas, another immigration hardliner.

But to be fair, Romney's supporters also include some of the Republican party's few and most prominent backers of a pathway to citizenship: Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Florida Sen. Mel Martinez, former U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and U.S. Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehntinen and Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida.

In conclusion, sometimes it's tricky to assign motives to a candidate based on their friends. What is clear, however, is Romney's own words and policies, which have a lot more common with the hardliners than the reformers and could thwart Hispanic outreach if he is the GOP nominee.

Where in the World are the Candidates on Tuesday?

Once upon a time, one knew where to find the major Republican presidential candidates on Election Night. They were all in Iowa, or New Hampshire or South Carolina, when the votes were being counted in those states, respectively. The group started to go their separate ways on ballot-casting days in Florida and Nevada.

But tomorrow night will be first time when the four candidates will be in four different states when the votes are tallied.

Not surprisingly, their choices signal where they think they may be the most successful. Romney will be in Colorado, where the Mormon population may help boost his numbers. Santorum will be in Missouri, where Republicans tend to be socially conservative. Paul will be in Minnesota, which boasts a strong tea party streak.

Perhaps in a sign that he doesn't think he'll win in any of the three states voting tomorrow, Gingrich plans to be in Ohio on the first day of early voting. Romney pounded Gingrich among early voters in Florida, and Gingrich's trip to Ohio indicates he doesn't want that to happen again.

How a Candidate Knows When It's Time to Quit

Newt Gingrich has made it abundantly clear in recent days that Mitt Romney's anticipated victory in Florida tonight will in no way stop or even slow down his own campaign. No matter that February is looking bleak for Gingrich, with few, if any, opportunities to win contests and no opportunities to grandstand in a nationally televised debate until Feb 22. "This is going on all the way to the convention,'' he said Sunday.

In light of his never-say-die ethos, it's interesting to recall when Romney called it quits in 2008. It came one week after losing to John McCain in the Florida primary and two days after disappointing results in the Super Tuesday contests. (This year, Super Tuesday isn't until March 6.) Romney delivered the news that he was suspending his 2008 campaign at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.

"If I fight on in my campaign all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and, frankly, I'd make it easier for Senator Clinton or Obama to win,"
Romney said at the time.

Obviously, Gingrich doesn't see it that way. Neither does Rick Santorum or Ron Paul. Yet. But it will be interesting when CPAC 2012 convenes on Feb. 9, whether the largest gathering of conservative activists in the country agrees that these candidates should continue pressing on.

What Romney's Hispanic Support in Florida Means

The latest polls not only show Mitt Romney with a substantial lead in Florida but also with the lion's share of the Hispanic vote. A recent ABC News/Univision/Latino Decisions survey, for example, found Romney leading Newt Gingrich 35 to 20 percent among Hispanic voters. That's a major turnaround from 2008, when John McCain pounded Romney among Hispanic voters by 54 to 13 percent, according to exit polls.

Romney Won't Own Up to Ad He Approved

Just after offering a robust defense of his hard-line immigration policy, Mitt Romney stepped in it when he claimed to have not seen his own ad attacking Newt Gingrich.

The ad airing on Spanish-language radio in Miami says Gingrich referred to Spanish as a "ghetto'' language. PolitiFact called the ad "mostly true.

"I haven't seen the ad,'' Romney said. "Did he say that?"'

Even if he was telling the truth, Romney came across as disingenuous. That's not helpful for a candidate who frequently struggles to come across as authentic. As CNN moderator Wolf Blitzer helpfully reminded the audience, at the end of the ad, Romney says, "I'm Mitt Romney and I approved this ad.''

As Rick Perry would say: "Oops.''

Minutes later, the Gingrich campaign was happy to e-mail blast a copy of the ad so anyone could hear Romney's disclaimer -- which he recites in not-too-shabby Spanish.

Just a side note: Gingrich has apologized for the "ghetto'' remark but in the heat of the debate he insisted it was "taken totally out of context.''

Newt Takes on Race in Latest Tussle with Debate Moderator

The partisan audience in the debate hall was definitely on Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich's side when he was challenged about racially charged comments he's made on the campaign trail. Since this is television, it's noteworthy that the question came from a black moderator, Juan Williams of FOX News.

Williams: "Speaker Gingrich, you said black Americans should demand jobs, not food stamps. You also said poor kids lack a strong work ethic and proposed having them work as janitors in their schools. Can't you see that this is viewed, at a minimum, as insulting to all Americans, but particularly to black Americans?"

Gingrich: "No.''

The former House Speaker loves the snippy, one-word retort. He went on to say that his adult daughter learned about the value of work and money when she did "janitorial work" at her church when she was 13 years old. Of his proposed child janitors, he said, "They would be getting money, which is a good thing if you're poor. Only the elites despise earning money.''

Williams wouldn't let it go and made it personal, telling Gingrich that he had been "inundated'' with complaints from people of all races about his remarks. The audience booed Williams and cheered heartily for Gingrich, who scoffed, "I know among the politically correct you are not supposed to use facts that are uncomfortable.''

Takeaway: In a GOP primary, Gingrich is on much more solid footing in taking on the elites and the politically correct than he is taking on Mitt Romney's capitalist record at Bain Capital.

GOP Establishment Tries to Rein in Newt

Conservative interests are pushing back at mounting attacks from Newt Gingrich that accuse Mitt Romney of looting companies when he headed the Bain Capital investment firm.

"Newt Gingrich's attacks on Mitt Romney's record at Bain Capital are disgusting," Club for Growth President Chris Chocola said in a statement Monday night. "There are a number of issues for Mitt Romney's Republican opponents to attack him for, but attacking him for making investments in companies to create a profit for his investors is just wrong.''

Radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh said Gingrich "is using the language of the left.''
 
The National Review weighed in on Gingrich's line of attack this morning, calling it "foolish and destructive.'' Former New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg joined the anti-Gingrich bandwagon in an interview with MSNBC's Chuck Todd. "We are a market economy,'' he said. Added Rep. Frank Gunta, sitting to his left: "I don't think (these attacks) belong in a Republican primary.''

Will Gingrich -- who once swore to run a positive campaign -- back off? Unlikely. A super-PAC bankrolled by his allies is already poised to begin a $3,4 million campaign tarring Romney as a ruthless corporate raider in South Carolina.

But in an interview on MSNBC's "Morning Joe'' on Monday, Gingrich did say it was out of bounds to take Romney's comment Sunday at a Chamber of Commerce breakfast -- "I like being able to fire people''  --  out of context. Gingrich noted, correctly, that Romney was talking hypothetically about a sub-par insurance company, not about employees. Gingrich said he would not use those remarks in an attack ad.

Romney Sends Mixed Signals on Gay Parents

MANCHESTER -- Defending his opposition to gay marriage, Mitt Romney tried to soft-sell it in tonight's debate by suggesting there is nothing wrong with same-sex couples entering into long-term committed relationships -- and raising children. But then he reversed himself to say children are better off with a father and mother. Here's the exchange between Romney and moderator Diane Sawyer:

SAWYER: If I could come back to the living room question again, Governor Romney, would you weigh in on the Yahoo question about what you would say sitting down in your living room to a gay couple who say, "We simply want to have the right to," as the -- as the person who wrote the e-mail said -- "we want gay people to form loving, committed, long-term relations." In human terms, what would you say to them?

ROMNEY: Well, the answer is, is that's a wonderful thing to do, and that there's every right for people in this country to form long- term committed relationships with one another. That doesn't mean that they have to call it marriage or they have to receive the -- the approval of the state and a marriage license and so forth for that to occur.

There can be domestic partnership benefits or -- or a contractual relationship between two people, which would include, as -- as Speaker Gingrich indicated, hospital visitation rights and the like. We can decide what kinds of benefits we might associate with people who form those kind of relationships, state by state.

But -- but to say that -- that marriage is something other than the relationship between a man -- a man and a woman, I think, is a mistake. And the reason for that is not that we want to discriminate against people or to suggest that -- that gay couples are not just as loving and can't also raise children well.

But it's instead a recognition that, for society as a whole, that the nation presumably will -- would be better off if -- if children are raised in a setting where there's a male and a female. And there are many cases where there's not possible: divorce, death, single parents, gay parents, and so forth. But -- but for a society to say we want to encourage, through the benefits that we associate with marriage, people to form partnerships between men and women and then raise children, which we think will -- that will be the ideal setting for them to be raised.

The slightly muddled answer is interesting, considering Romney's mixed messages on gay adoption. In 2006, Romney said same sex-couples have "a legitimate interest'' in adopting children. Since then, he has suggested he opposes gay adoption and that it should be decided by individual states. 

Romney Skates Through Debate Opening

MANCHESTER -- Before tonight's debate, expectations were running high for a giant pile-on, with frontrunner Mitt Romney at the bottom of the pile. Yet about a half hour into the debate, most of the backbiting has occurred over Romney's untouched head.

1. Ron Paul stood by his ad attacking Rick Santorum as a "corrupt'' lobbyist and Washington insider. "You're a big spender, that's all there is to it,'' Paul said. When the microphone made a screeching noise, Santorum quipped, "It caught you not telling the truth, Ron.''
 
2. Rick Perry called Paul a "hypocrite'' for earmarking federal money and then voting against the overall spending plan.

3. Perry's campaign sent out a blast e-mail repeating the lobbyist attack on Santorum.

4. Gingrich and Paul got into a testy exchange, in which Paul defended labeling the former House Speaker a "chicken hawk'' for not serving in Vietnam.

Meanwhile, the barely scathed Romney kept his focus, as he has throughout the campaign, on President Obama. Minutes before the debate started, his campaign promoted a new Internet video, "Big Promises, Big Failures,'' that accused Obama of breaking his major campaign promises. He launched a broadside against Obama right from the get-go, saying he gets no credit for improvement in the economy, He pivoted back to Obama again when asked about a video that paints a dastardly portrait of his corporate experience, accusing the president of sweeping hostility toward free enterprise. And once more, back to Obama, when asked whether Jon Huntsman was right to say he had more foreign policy experience than anyone else on the stage, "He can do it a lot better than Barack Obama,'' Romney said graciously about his GOP rival.

Anyone still wondering how Romney, despite his many flaws, has retained his front-running position?

Whither Thou Goest, Iowa Caucus?

Tuesday's results are bound to revive the enduring debate over the oh-so-special role played by a state that's whiter, more rural and more evangelical than most of the country. Iowa's tradition of holding partisan caucuses instead of state-run primaries attracts only a fraction of the electorate but sets the tone for the entire nominating process. No fair?

At this moment, with the race between Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney too close to call and Ron Paul coming in third, two of top three 2012 finishers in Iowa are highly unlikely to win the nomination.

Iowa is known more for weeding out the losers than picking winners, and this campaign was no different. Tim Pawlenty dropped out after losing the state Republican Party's straw poll in August to Michele Bachmann (who came in sixth place on Tuesday!) Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, who took their turns leading the polls in Iowa, are damaged goods after their second-tier finishes on Tuesday. Perry is so damaged that he's going back to Texas to "reassess'' his campaign.

Considering that Pawlenty, Gingrich and Perry were once viewed as the strongest challengers to Romney, Iowa's winnowing process will also be reassessed.

Santorum's Last Stand in State of Fence-Sitters

ALTOONA, Iowa -- Bullhorn in hand, Rick Santorum made his final pitch. It was his 380th or so event in the state that will launch the Republican nominating process.

"Lead and be bold,'' he urged his audience, his words echoing back at him from the televisions in the Pizza Ranch restaurant tuned to C-SPAN. "If you do those two things, you will have done your jobs as Iowans.''

Can Gingrich, Santorum Win by Whining?

ATLANTIC -- Delivering their closing arguments before Tuesday's caucus, both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are making a similar pitch: Vote for me to send a message in favor of good, clean campaigns.

Gingrich began whining about the negative onslaught of ads against him weeks ago and has made it an essential part of his stump speech. The constant complaints have knocked him off message.

"It will be interesting to see whether in fact the people of Iowa decide that they don't like the people who run negative ads,'' Gingrich said Saturday in remarks to about 100 people at a Coke bottling plant. "You could send a tremendous signal to the country that the era of nasty and negative 30-second campaigns is over.''

Good luck with that. While there's no doubt Gingrich has been the prime target of attack ads in Iowa, it seems unlikely that voters would back him out of some sort of solidarity or to show their outrage with the culprits. And in some cases, blame for the attack ads is hard to assign because the ads come not from the Rick Perry or Mitt Romney campaigns themselves, but from allied groups.

"It's a weak argument,'' said 72-year-old Jerry Hays after Gingrich's speech, though he added that he's tired of the attack ads.

Similarly, Santorum, who has spent more time in Iowa than any other candidate, has repeatedly suggested that a vote for him is a vote to preserve the state's tradition of retail politics. The obvious suggestion being that backing the front-running Romney -- who has spent little time in Iowa -- would be like rewarding bad behavior.

Voters like to say they vote for the person, not the party. I'm betting they also vote for the person over "sending a message'' about campaign strategy.

Romney: 'Nobody Does it Better Than Iowa'

WEST DES MOINES -- Don't assume that the hundreds of voters who have come out on a nasty, rainy, windy Friday morning to a Hy-Vee supermarket parking lot to see Mitt Romney are in the tank. Iowa voters, bless them, will rise early, drive far and endure cold to check out a candidate they may or may not vote for.

"I'd really like to look him in the eye one more time,'' said Rob Reed, 44, a chief financial officer for a non-profit, who is trying to decide between Romney and Rick Perry.

Minutes later, Romney emerged from his campaign bus and was taken aback by the crowd. "Nobody does it better than Iowa!'' Romney exclaimed. His wife, Ann, added, "You are not here for any other reason except that you love America.''

But has Romney shown Iowa the love in return? Now, with polls showing a first-place finish in reach that could set him on a glide path to the nomination, he has scheduled 10 events before Tuesday's caucus. But when victory seemed more uncertain over the past several months, Romney played it safe. The Des Moines Register's candidate tracker shows Romney has spent only 15 days in the state. The only candidate who has spent less time in Iowa is Jon Huntsman, who has made it abundantly clear that he's not even competing in the caucus. In contrast to Romney's sparse appearances, Newt Gingrich has spent 60 days in the state, while Ron Paul has spent 44 days here. The leader is Rick Santorum, with 100 days logged. 

Polls show Santorum is rising, a feat he and others attribute to the dues he has paid in the state for months. One of the most important takeways from the caucus may be whether Iowa Republicans reward candidates for showing up, or if they are willing to accept a fair-weather friend like Romney.

Ron Paul's Lonely Breakfast of Champions

DES MOINES -- So I am eating the free breakfast buffet at the downtown Embassy Suites and who should stroll in but Ron Paul. By himself.

This may not seem strange to the average voter, but anyone who writes about politics or makes their living off it knows that a presidential candidate -- especially one who could win the nation's first nominating contest in five days -- never ever goes anywhere without an entourage of some sort. One of the main reasons for the entourage is to keep pesky reporters away and fetch things so that said candidate can eat breakfast before another long day on the campaign trail.

But Paul doesn't need a sidekick to fill his plate at the breakfast buffet, fetch his coffee, whisper talking points into his ear, or get rid of pesky reporters -- he does that all himself, thank you very much. Asked if he's concerned that if he doesn't win his followers will not rally behind the GOP nominee, he looks up from his plate of cantaloupe, honeydew, eggs, sausage and biscuit and says brusquely, "Right now, the only thing that bothers me is people who don't respect my privacy enough to leave me alone for five minutes when I'm eating breakfast." And then he goes back to reading his USA Today.

Charming. (By the way, if this were to happen to Romney, which it wouldn't, a SWAT team would immediately surround the reporter to oversee damage control.)

Paul, wearing a white shirt and jeans, insists he doesn't have time for even one question because he needs to shave before a morning television appearance. A few minutes later, he tries to get the waitress's attention and fails. Oh bother, he shrugs. And that's exactly why the people who love the Texas congressman/tea party icon/libertarian standard-bearer love him so intensely. He's just a cranky old man who wants to eat his eggs in peace before he sets out to save the world.

Attacks Make Gingrich the Six Million Dollar Man

It's about time. The super-PAC backing Newt Gingrich is going up with a new television spot in Iowa today to help counter what spokesman Rick Tyler estimates as nearly $6 million in attack ads against the former House Speaker.

Tyler went so far as to suggest that if Iowa Republicans cast their lot with Mitt Romney, it would spell the end of grassroots campaigning in the state.

"Iowans need to decide whether they want to keep their first in the nation role in presidential politics where candidates spend time and effort traveling to the 99 counties...'' he said in an e-mail. "Or are they going to reward the northeastern establishment's candidate who has spent the least amount of time in Iowa and the most on false advertising? The later would lead future candidates to abandon grassroots campaigning in the Hawkeye state and simply run negative ads instead.''

It's true Romney has spent little time in the state --  13 days according to The Des Moines Register -- but he's not the only top-tier candidate with a soft footprint. Ron Paul has been there 42 days, while Gingrich has spent 57 days in the state. The real workhorses -- Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann, have spent 99 and 77 days in the state, respectively, but their poll numbers have yet to reflect their investment.

Whatever Happened to Sarah Palin?

Sarah Palin always had a knack for making a splash just when she was teetering on the edge of irrelevance. Which means as the Iowa caucus looms, she's bound to make an appearance sometime soon.

Or at least a potentially unflattering portrait of her. You can catch a glimpse of actress Julianne Moore portraying the unexpected vice presidential nominee in the newly released trailer promoting HBO's "Game Change,'' the movie about the 2008 campaign. " I think I'll just grit my teeth and bear whatever comes what may with that movie,'' she told Sean Hannity of Fox News.

She took a shot at joining the national conversation the other day when she criticized the First Family's holiday card for featuring their dog, instead of a Christmas tree. The fact that this swipe made little news says a lot about Palin's status these days.

She also makes the briefest of cameos, if you can even call it that, in Rick Santorum's new television spot -- a quiet plea for an endorsement? "Sarah Palin praised Rick for 'protecting the sanctity of life,' '' the ad reminds us.

Count me unsurprised if she doesn't show up in an Iowa cornfield between now and Jan. 3.

Candidates' Spouses Star in New Ads

Both Mitt Romney and Rick Perry announced new television spots today starring their better halves.

Romney, who's been challenged on the authenticity front, uses his wife, Ann, as a character witness. "It's so important to understand the character of a person,'' she says in the spot, which is bound to be viewed as a veiled swipe at the thrice-married Newt Gingrich. Perry's wife Anita calls him her "high school sweetheart' in his new ad and talks about their "Christian values.''  Gingrich and his wife, Callista, are also co-starring in a Christmas-themed spot.

It's a markedly different tone from the attack ads splashed all over Iowa these days. Campaigns typically put spouses to work to help soften and round out a candidate's public image.

Anti-Immigration Group's Subtle Swipe at Gingrich

Numbers USA, which opposes legal immigration on the grounds that it takes jobs from Americans, is beginning a $150,000 statewide television blitz leading up to the Jan. 3 caucus in Iowa. While the ad doesn't single out any of the Republican presidential candidates and shows images of several of them, Newt Gingrich shares the screen with President Obama when the narrator says, "They're even talking AMNESTY that will make it easier for illegal aliens to take jobs Americans want.'' 

It's a subtle swipe at the former House Speaker's proposal to allow some longtime undocumented workers to stay in this country -- and the last thing Gingrich needs in Iowa, where he is being pilloried by attack ads from rivals and their super-PACS.

Click here to watch the ad.

Romney Wins the Endorsement Primary in a Landslide

If there were any lingering questions over whether the Republican establishment was worried about the possibility of President Newt Gingrich, they have been answered in recent days with an avalanche of endorsements for Mitt Romney. From South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley to former Sen. Bob Dole to a bunch of newspapers, most notably The Des Moines Register, everybody seems to be coming off the sidelines. Gingrich might as well cry, "Uncle!'' at this point.

But there are a number of good gets still out there, should they choose to take sides. Off the top of my head: Arizona Sen. John McCain, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley and Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad would also be coups but they have said they won't endorse.

Whose Pants Are On Fire?

"People should have facts before they make wild accusations,'' sniffed Newt Gingrich in Thursday's debate in Sioux City after Michele Bachmann accused him of lobbying on behalf of Freddie Mac.

Bachmann didn't back down. "Well after the debate we had last week, Politifact came out and said that everything I said is true.''

(RELATED: Bachmann Keeps Up Attacks on Gingrich)

Not even close. The Pulitzer Prize-winning site reports today: "In fact, Bachmann earned two ratings from us at that debate, a Mostly True for her claim that Newt Gingrich advocated for the individual mandate in health care and a Pants on Fire for her claim that Mitt Romney set up a health plan in Massachusetts that is "socialized medicine." We then rated Bachmann's new claim and gave it a Pants on Fire. (The fact that Bachmann would cite us was interesting given that her PolitiFact report card shows 60 percent of her ratings have been False or Pants on Fire."

Later in the debate, Gingrich fired another shot at Bachmann's truthfulness. "Sometimes Bachmann does not get facts accurate,'' he said. Again, she stood her ground: "I don't get my facts wrong...I am a serious candidate and my facts are accurate.''

The subtext of Bachmann's remarks is that she gets picked on because she's a woman, a conservative one no less, who isn't afraid to be outspoken.

There is something to that. But at least according to Politifact's standards (and obviously the statements they choose to fact check are self-selecting so it's not a scientific study) Bachmann has the biggest problem with truth-telling in the GOP field. Herman Cain, no longer a candidate, came in second place with 57 percent of his statements called false or pants on fire. Gingrich earned those ratings for 41 percent of his fact-checked statements, Rick Perry got 30 percent wrong, and Mitt Romney got 24 percent wrong.

And the fight for truth and justice continues...

Gingrich Hires Rubio Strategist as Florida State Director

Big get for surging Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich in Florida: His new state director is Jose Mallea, who helped steer Marco Rubio's come-from-behind victory in the 2010 Senate race.

The Miami-based campaign strategist has longstanding ties to powerful Republicans in the state, which will hold one of the nation's earliest primaries on Jan. 31.

Mallea's move is likely to fuel speculation that Rubio will endorse Gingrich, though the freshman senator has said he would stay neutral in the primary. Gingrich and other candidates have dropped his name as a likely running mate.

Rubio had an autographed picture of Gingrich on his desk when he served in the Florida Legislature and brought it with him to Washington, Mallea said.

"For those of us who came up in politics in the mid 1990s, he's someone we admired,'' Mallea said. "He's so intelligent on the issues and understands where we need to go as a country.'"

The GOP's Pied Piper

You could call Ron Paul the Barack Obama of the Republican primary because polls show him receiving the most support from young people. Except that he's 76 years old, totally uncool, and way too cranky to talk about hope and change.

Paul: Bush Administration Wrong to Bomb Iraq

AMES, Iowa -- Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul told hundreds of Iowa State students on Wednesday night that after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, there was "glee in the administration because now we can invade Iraq."

He said the Bush administration, driven by the beat of "war drums,'' was wrong to bomb Iraq because it did not orchestrate the attacks in 2001.

The crowd of roughly 1,000 people didn't react. This National Journal reporter posted Paul's comment on Twitter, leading Bush's former press secretary, Ari Fleischer, to respond: "The man is nuts.''

This is not the first time the Texas congressman has drawn flak for his views of the attacks. He has previously said U.S. military intervention in the Middle East was partly to blame, leading rival Rick Santorum to call him "irresponsible'' in a nationally televised debate in September. Paul drew boos from the audience when he responded.

Perry's Mixed Messages to Jewish Voters

Shortly before Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry is scheduled to make his pitch to Jewish voters at a forum sponsored by the Republican Jewish Coalition in Washington, he released a new ad that would make many of them squirm.

Too Many Republican Debates?

Said the 2008 Republican nominee John McCain on Sunday: "If I had, frankly, a criticism of the process, it is that I think maybe we're really getting a little too heavy on the debates.''

It's not an uncommon refrain. But so far, there have been roughly the same number of debates in this election cycle as there were in the last Republican primary.

McCain participated in 10 debates televised on major network or cable channels as of this time four years ago, missing only the PBS debate in Baltimore on September 2007, for a total of 11 debates in all. He subsequently appeared in six more before clinching the nomination.

This year, if you don't count the May 5 debate in South Carolina that didn't include several major candidates, Thursday's debate in Des Moines will be - you guessed it -- No. 11.  (No, I'm not counting Mike Huckabee's Saturday night special or Donald Trump's wanna-be reality show or the Newt Gingrich's Lincoln-Douglas-esque debates.) Another 11 debates are proposed between Thursday and March 19^th, but who knows how many of those will materialize.

The perception that the 2012 GOP primary has been overloaded with debates may stem from their impact more than their quantity. Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich have all seen their poll numbers soar after strong performances, while Tim Pawlenty and Rick Perry endured the opposite.

The best test of whether there are too many debates is the number of people watching them, and some have attracted twice as many viewers as they did four years ago. 

Watching TV in Iowa

For an interesting study in contrasts, compare the television advertising broadcast by the leading Republican presidential candidates ads in Iowa.

The most distinctive quality of Newt Gingrich's first ad is its speed: slow motion. Going for the heartstrings, the spot showcases amber waves of grain to purple mountain majesties, joining the scores of homages to Ronald Reagan's beloved "It's morning again in America'' ad. Gingrich says, "Some people say the America we know and love is a thing of the past. I don't believe that. Because working together, I know we can rebuild America.'' Definitely an old-school ad by an old-school politician.

Just like the candidate himself, Ron Paul's new ad in Iowa is quirky, rebellious and dramatic, set to a background of heavy metal music. The tough-talking narrator sounds like he does Monster Truck events on the weekends, asking, "What's up with these sorry politicians?'' The fast-moving, cartoon-like spot emphasizes Paul's plan to cut a a trillion dollars for the budget - "that's trillion with a 'T' " -- and to eliminate four federal agencies - because "that's how Ron Paul rolls.'' There's no footage of Paul in the entire ad; only a couple cut-outs of his head.

Mitt Romney's ad brands him from the first frame with what could be the title of the world's most boring memoir: "Mitt Romney: Conservative Businessman.'' In a voice over, Romney says, "I spent my life in the private sector. I've competed with companies around the world. I've learned something about how it is that economies grow." The tall, dark and handsome candidate is in every frame of the spot, sometimes in color, sometimes in black and white. His ad is the only one that features a picture of himself and his equally handsome wife, Ann.

What Do Voters Prefer: Hubris or Humility?

Newt Gingrich has a lot of problems, but a healthy ego isn't one of them. "I'm going to be the nominee," the former House Speaker told ABC News. "It's very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high I'm going to be the nominee."

In contrast, the candidate who's got the most money and the most consistently high poll numbers, Mitt Romney, always bends over backwards not to be presumptuous. This may come at least in part from his top adviser, Stuart Stevens, who likes to say " "If you don't enter this process humbly, you will leave it humbly."

I remember one campaign event in South Carolina last month where Romney took pains to point out that he might not even make it to the debate at the Reagan library on March 5. Romney responded to Gingrich's recent remarks this way: "Self aggrandizing statements about polls are not going to win elections."

Now Romney is taking humble to a new level with an "Earn it with Mitt'' event on Saturday in New Hampshire, the state where Romney's substantial edge means he can almost (but not quite) afford to take it for granted. The rally with former rival Tim Pawlenty aims to inspire the Romney corps to knock on 5,000 doors, make 12,000 phone calls, and put up 10,000 yard signs.

One reason Romney can't afford to rest easy in New Hampshire? Iowa. He's far from a sure bet in the Jan. 3 caucus, and the momentum of coming out of Iowa in first place can't be underestimated. A strong victory by Gingrich could jeopardize Romney's comfort zone in the New Hampshire primary one week later.  

Where does Rick Perry fall in the hubris v. humility debate? Following his embarrassing meltdown in a nationally televised debate, he's gone to great lengths to poke fun at himself. Check out his latest exercise in self-deprecation here.

Dog-Whistling on Immigration Through Endorsements

For a fascinating study in contrasts, consider the dueling endorsements trotted out today by Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.

Romney, who has taken a hardline position on immigration that emphasizes border security above all else, campaigned this morning in Miami with three current and former Cuban-American members of Congress who have all championed legislation that would offer a illegal immigrants a pathway to cititzenship. It's a coup for Romney to bring on board Mario Diaz-Balart, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, all of whom endorsed John McCain in the last election. Their support sends a message to the Hispanic community: We may not agree with him on immigration, but he's not a hater like Tom Tancredo, either.

While Romney takes advantage of the optics of campaigning in sunny Florida amid guava and papaya, Perry is stumping today in brisk New Hampshire with "America's toughest sheriff,'' Joe Arpaio. (Even the location, Joey's Diner, sounds tough.) Perry is hoping the hard-bitten, border-state lawman will counteract the perception that he's weak on immigration because of his support for in-state tutition rates for the children of illegal immigrants. Arpaio's endorsement is a signal to non-Hispanics: We may not like his tuition policy, but he's no softie when it comes to border security.

So to review: Romney trying to soften his image a bit; Perry trying to toughen his up.

Mitt Bashes Newt for Agreeing With Him on Immigration

Bloomberg has a story today that quotes a 2006 interview with Mitt Romney, in which he took a dim view of the prospect of deporting illegal immigrants currently living in the U.S. Romney's comments are at odds with the position he took last week when he assailed Republican rival Newt Gingrich's call for a "humane'' immigration policy that doesn't target longtime undocumented residents. Romney accused Gingrich of opening "a new doorway to amnesty.''

The Bloomberg interview isn't the only evidence of Romney's change of heart. He told

the Lowell Sun in 2006: "I don't believe in rounding up 11 million people and forcing them at gunpoint from our country. With these 11 million people, let's have them registered, know who they are. Those who've been arrested or convicted of crimes shouldn't be here; those that are here paying taxes and not taking government benefits should begin a process towards application for citizenship, as they would from their home country."

Whether Romney -- and Gingrich and many of their presidential rivals -- have taken different sides of the immigration debate isn't in dispute. The broader problem is that aside from Gingrich, none of the Republican contenders -- no one in either party's leadership for that matter -- is putting forth a realistic plan to deal with the millions of undocumented workers who are already here.

 

Do Endorsements Matter?

The debate arises in every election year: Do endorsements matter?

The answer: Sometimes. They can create momentum, or they can land with a thud. An endorsement that comes with a fundraising and grassroots network is the most coveted of all. If the candidate is running an insurgent, anti-establishment campaign, endorsements can actually be used by a rival as weapons.

In 2008, the last-minute endorsement of John McCain by the popular governor of Florida at the time, Charlie Crist, was widely perceived as helping him cinch the state's earliest primary in history and win the nomination. This year, Florida Gov. Rick Scott's 37 percent approval rating makes the gubernatorial seal of approval a lot less valuable.

Hillary Clinton initially scooped up most of the Democratic establishment in the 2008 presidential primary, but as the delegate battle wore on, defectors started gravitating toward Barack Obama.

This year, the endorsement primary has a clear winner: Mitt Romney by a landslide. His latest scores in New Hampshire are U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Rep. Charlie Bass. The nods add to the sense of inevitability Romney is building in the state that hosts the first primary.

Says the former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, Fergus Cullen in a recent column:

Do endorsements matter? In New Hampshire, yes. State legislators represent small districts and are usually well known in their communities. Among a legislator's non-activist friends, an endorsement can be influential, at a minimum a reason to give a candidate a closer look and extra consideration.

The absence of endorsements for some candidates says something, too. After all, there are nearly 400 elected Republicans to state, county, and Federal office in NH. How hard can it be to persuade five of them to support you? Is it really plausible that a candidate can be at 20% in the polls but have five or fewer elected officials as public supporters? Count me skeptical.

Rahm Sets the Stage in Iowa

Emanuel's pitch contrasts with the image Democrats are trying to create of the putative Republican frontrunner, Mitt Romney, as a shape-shifting, political opportunist.

Coming Soon: Perry Attack Ad Against 'Washington Insider'

A source close to the Rick Perry campaign says the Republican presidential candidate will begin airing a new television ad nationwide on FOX and in Iowa, possibly Monday, that suggests  "replacing one Washington insider with another isn't going to change anything.''

A shot at Mitt Romney? At Newt Gingrich? All of the above? Even the political outsider-y Herman Cain worked as a Washington lobbyist as the head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s.

Perry has got a lot of problems but proving his credibility as a Washington outsider isn't one of them. The "Fed Up'' author has been running against Washington for years. His whole that's-not-how-we-do-things-in-Texas schtick may be the best thing he has going for him.

On the other hand, the polls have yet to show that Perry is getting much of a boost from his television blitz so far.

Romney Tries to Turn the Tables

In this week's magazine, Ron Fournier and I write about Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's counteroffensive to the flip-flop line of attack by President Obama's campaign. Romney's team believes it can make a credible argument that Obama is not a man of his word. It's an uphill slog, but it could diffuse some of the sting of the attack against Romney.

So here's Exhibit A: Yesterday, the Boston Globe published a big story that says Romney's aides purchased the computer hard drives when he left the Massachusetts governor's office and the server was wiped clean, making it impossible retrieve e-mail records from his administration. By 9:22 a.m., Romney's campaign had fired off a press releases with a headline accusing Obama of being "obsessed with secrecy.''  It charged: "From the very beginning, President Obama's administration has turned its back on his promises of openness and transparency.'' Four hours later, the Romney campaign was demanding its own set of email records -- any correspondence between Obama's top advisers and Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick -- and accusing them of colluding on a "dirty tricks shop'' that produced the Boston Globe story.
 
Who you calling secretive now?

Hispanic Vote Beckons 2012 Candidates

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez will cohair a Hispanic Leadership Network conference on Jan. 26-27 in Miami, right before the Jan. 31 presidential primary.

The conference is billed as the "ideal platform for future presidential candidates, elected officials and community leaders to engage with the Hispanic community.'' The conference in January 2011 attracted only one candidate -- Tim Pawlenty -- who barely mentioned immigration or the Hispanic vote in his speech. Will be interesting to see who shows up this time, especially in the wake of a campaign in which Rick Perry has been pilloried for backing in-state tuition benefits for illegal immigrant kids as governor of Texas.

At the January 2011 conference, several speakers decried the harsh tone that frequently accompanies the debate over immigration policy.

"If you send the signals of  'them v. us' you're not going to be able to get the desired result," said Bush at the time. "Leaders have to lead, and that means they have the responsibility of civility as well as having a tone that draws people toward our cause and not against it."

Republican strategists say a nominee who can attract 40 percent of the Hispanic vote will win the White House.

Perry Steals Romney's Anti-Obama Line

One day after Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney accused President Obama of calling Americans "lazy,'' rival Rick Perry stole the line for a new television commercial.

"Can you believe that?'' Perry demands in the spot running on cable and broadcast networks in Iowa. "That's what our president thinks is wrong with America? That Americans are lazy? That's pathetic.''

The ad mirrors Romney' criticism of President Obama's recent remarks at a gathering of corporate executives in Hawaii. While the president's campaign says he was simply encouraging the executives to promote the U.S. abroad and attract foreign investors, Romney had a less positive interpretation.

"Sometimes I just don't think that President Obama understands America,'' Romney said while campaigning yesterday in South Carolina. "Now I say that because this week or was it last week he said Americans are lazy. I don't think that describes Americans.''

In the fast-moving world of presidential campaigns, it's not unusual for a candidate to pounce on a remark and produce a commercial overnight. Wonder if Romney was planning to do the same?

Romney's Tea Party Firewall in Iowa

Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney remains at the top of the polls in Iowa and many of his more tea-party friendly rivals are struggling to overcome major campaign gaffes. Eventually, those tea party activists will come around to Romney in their zeal to defeat President Obama, right?

"Ahhh no,'' said one influential tea party leader in that state, Ryan Rhodes.  "I'd think they'd take a candidate with problems over Mitt Romney. The only difference between Romney and Barack Obama is that he's run things before. I don't think he would accomplish any of our goals. He's essentially a Massachusetts liberal.''

Rhodes pointed to a new Bloomberg news poll that shows 58 percent of Iowa caucusgoers  would reject a candidate who favored an individual mandate to buy insurance, as Romney did when he was governor of Massachusetts.

"You can't lobby against crony capitalism if you've done that. You can't lobby against the individual mandate if you founded that,'' said Rhodes, who backed Michele Bachmann in the state Republican party's straw poll in August. "This election is about repudiating the health care system that's being forced on individuals.''

Waterboarding Produces Another Romney Flip-Flop?

Front-running Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney never got a chance in Saturday's debate to weigh in on whether he views waterboarding as torture. (Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain said no, Ron Paul and John Huntsman said yes.) Romney's campaign spokesman, Eric Fehrnstrom, said on Twitter during the debate: "He wasn't asked but it's not torture.''

That's not what Romney said when he was asked about waterboarding in his last presidential campaign. In a CNN/YouTube debate in 2007, Romney said: "I do not believe that as a presidential candidate it is wise for us to describe precisely what techniques we will use to interrogate people. I oppose torture.'' Asked again by moderator Anderson Cooper if waterboarding was torture, Romney refused to say one way or the other.

That got him a lecture from rival John McCain, the Arizona senator and former Vietnam War hero: "I'm astonished that you haven't found out what waterboarding is...Governor, let me tell you if we are going to get the high ground in this world and we're going to be the America that we've cherished and loved for more than 200 years, we're not going to torture people.''

UPDATE: Asked to explain the discrepancy between what he said on Twitter and Romney's answer in the 2007 debate, Fehrnstrom pointed to other examples in the 2007 campaign when the candidate refused to rule out using waterboarding.

Here Comes the Hunstman Super-PAC

Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman has been hunkered down in New Hampshire for months, making little progress in the polls. It's time for the big guns to come in -- his super-PAC known as Our Destiny PAC begins what it's calling a "substantial buy'' tomorrow on broadcast and cable networks in New Hampshire.

The ad pitches the former Utah governor and ambassador to China as the conservative candidate "who actually has a chance to win.'' At the end of the spot, an elderly voter asks, "Why haven't we heard of this guy.'' Jon Huntsman: The Republican party's best-kept secret?

The most recent CNN/Time/ORC poll pegged Huntsman's support at 6 percent in New Hampshire, the state he sees as his launching pad to the nomination.

McCain Wades Into GOP Race

It's Newt's Night

Presidential candidates usually lay low the day of a debate, but Newt Gingrich spent a lot of time today in the public eye, tailgating at Furman University and opening a campaign office. And why not? Who knows how long this moment will last.

The Gingrich surge has finally arrived, predicted repeatedly and most arduously by Gingrich himself. Two national polls now show him in the top tier. Today he opened his campaign headquarters in South Carolina with nine staffers, the biggest team in the state. And tonight this loquacious, self described "student of history'' and man of the world heads into a debate on foreign policy. Is there anywhere else he'd rather be on a Saturday night?

So when he opened his campaign office in Greenville this afternoon and said he had time for "one or two more (questions), I don't want to keep people here forever,'' anyone who has followed his campaign's trajectory knows he would like to do exactly that. "Any reporter have anything they want to ask?'' asked the man who usually relishes putting the news media in its place.  It was Gingrich's turn to hold court, and if the boom follows the pattern we've seen in this campaign, it will be shortlived.

While Gingrich is peaking, Rick Perry is tanking. Still reeling from his horrible "oops'' moment in Wednesday's debate, the Texas governor now has to walk into another debate. On foreign policy, a topic in which he has little experience. His tweet earlier today of him going running by himself  suggested a "what me, worry?'' attitude, but it also shows him going it alone at a time when Gingrich is finally getting the attention he has craved.

Bob Jones III Unplugged

SPARTANBURG -- Bob Jones III said he hasn't endorsed Mitt Romney as he did in the last presidential campaign partly because he doesn't think Christian voters will rule the Mormon candidate out this time.

"Number one, he hasn't asked for it,'' said Jones, chancellor of the fundamentalist Christian university named after his family. "I had a reason for doing it the first time. I don't have that same reason this time.''

In a wide-ranging interview Friday afternoon in his stately office replete with mounted game, a bear rug, dark wood furniture and stained glass windows, Jones recalled why he backed Romney in 2007.

Debate Remainders: Autos and Audiences

First, the autos.
A supporting role in last night's Republican primary debate was played by the host state of Michigan, home to the American auto industry.
This state is personal for frontrunner Mitt Romney. He was born there. His father served as governor. He launched his last presidential campaign from the Henry Ford Museum of Innovation in Dearborn, wrapping himself in the Americana that the auto industry represents.
Fast forward to 2011. This campaign was launched from New Hampshire to show Romney's paramount focus on the state hosting the first primary. And when Romney came to Michigan yesterday, he was reminded of his response to the proposed government bailout of his beloved auto industry: "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.''
Second, the audience.
The crowd's response in several of the debates has been as interesting as the candidates themselves. Remember when they heckled the gay soldier? Cheered for the death penalty? Hooted at the idea of a man dying without insurance?
Well last night, when Herman Cain was asked about allegations that he sexually harassed female employees when he headed the National Restaurant Association, the audience booed its disapproval. And when the questions turned back to the economy, they cheered.
Is the Republican electorate is as disinterested in the allegations as last night's crowd in Michigan?

What If Mitt Romney Had Been President in 2009?

That's the question posed by the former Democratic governor of Michigan, Jennifer Granholm, in a CNBC blog in the lead-up to tonight's Michigan-based debate between the Republican primary candidates. Granholm concludes that the auto industry would have gone belly up. "When the U.S. auto companies were on the brink of collapse, Michigan native Mitt Romney went so far as to write an appalling opinion piece in The New York Times titled 'Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.' ''

The Democratic party greeted Romney today with full-page ads in local newspapers reminding voters of his opposition to the auto bailout. Romney, for his part, insisted  "there will be no one on that stage this week more pained by Michigan's struggles than I am.''

While it can be valuable for the nationally televised debates to draw attention to the most pressing issues in their host state, the auto bailout is unlikely to generate much discussion tonight since -- like many issues -- there's no daylight between the GOP candidates.

Voter Tide Still Not Turning Against Cain

SPARTANBURG -- One day after Sharon Bialek put a name and a face to the allegations of sexual harassment that have loomed over presidential candidate Herman Cain for more than a week, many voters are still giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Interviews with voters on Tuesday in this heavily Republican corner of the state that has chosen the Republican nominee since 1980 found a mostly a positive view of Cain. National Journal and CBS News are sponsoring a debate at Wofford College here on Saturday.

Cain has denied harassing Bialek, as well as two other women who worked for him at the National Restaurant Association in the late 1990s and received settlements after they complained about his behavior.

"It's very unfortunate that these ladies are coming up with these accusations,'' said Shelby Clark, 79.

"Either it didn't happen or they want the publicity or they are trying to discredit him. It's a smear campaign,'' said Annie Hargrove, 53.

One exception was Mary Willis, 83. She said, "I thought it was media hype but when I saw that woman's picture in the paper today and heard what she said, I believed her.''

The latest statewide polls -- taken before the allegations surfaced -- show Cain in the lead or trailing Mitt Romney. The story has changed so rapidly since the news first broke last Sunday that it's hard to predict how voters here and elsewhere will react in the days ahead.

How a Key Iowa Endorsement Was Won

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum, the hardest working man in (Iowa) show business, has landed a big endorsement: Chuck Laudner, the former executive director of the state Republican party and a former chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Steve King.

Laudner hinted at his support for Santorum when he described to me last week how Santorum was the only candidate at King's Defenders of Freedom dinner in Sioux City one week earlier.
 
"There were 300 rock-ribbed conservatives in the room and only Santorum was there,'' he said. "I kept looking for some kid wearing another candidate's sticker on their lapel and holding a clipboard who was working the room. Stupidity! If I was a candidate, I would have fired my staff if I found out we didn't have anyone working Steve King's event in Sioux City. What else are you doing on a Saturday night two months before the caucus?''

Laudner said Santorum was suffering from a "chicken and egg syndrome'' in Iowa. More people would support him if he moved up in the polls, but he can't move up in the polls until more people support him.

By the way: The last candidate to leave the room after the Iowa Republican Party's Reagan dinner in Des Moines on Friday night? Rick Santorum.

Two Decades After Anita Hill, Voters Shrug at Sex Harassment

Scores of interviews with Iowa Republicans over the weekend turned up scant outrage over the sexual harassment allegations leveled against presidential candidate Herman Cain. That's partly because of the good will he's engendered among voters, and partly because of a widespread mistrust of the media, which has been extensively airing the allegations.

But there's another reason Cain may escape condemnation. Twenty years after Anita Hill accused Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas of sexual harassment at his confirmation hearings, searing the issue into the national consciousness and spawning an untold number of workplace seminars, the issue generates little shock value.

"Sometimes I think, so what's new?'' asked Joy Corning, a former lieutenant governor in Iowa. "How many politicians do we know that have good moral standing? Moral character is important to me, but there have been a lot of disappointments in both parties.''

Corning hasn't picked a candidate yet, Lois Wignall, a retiree from Altoona, was wearing a Cain pin at the state Republican party dinner Friday and said she has no plans to take it off.

"What may seem harassment to one person may not be to me,'' she said. Asked if being invited to a hotel room constituted harassment, she said, "You can say no. You don't have to go.''

Romney Still Managing Expectations in Iowa

Mitt Romney, who plowed $10 million into Iowa in his last presidential election only to come in second in the 2008 caucus, has been treading carefully in the state this time around. He campaigns there, now and then. He dribbles out endorsements. He even unleashes statewide attacks on a rival, as he did in a telephone town-hall meeting on Thursday that assailed Rick Perry as soft on illegal immigration.

Tied in the polls with Herman Cain, who also has spent limited time in the state, Romney plans to campaign Monday in Dubuque and Davenport. Which begs the question: How much longer before he's expected to win the Jan. 3 caucus?

The answer: As long he leads in New Hampshire.

Romney's sizable edge in New Hampshire of 20-plus percentage points protects him from losing the Iowa expectations game. He could win the nation's first nominating contest in Iowa but he doesn't have to win the caucus in order to remain in the running. As long as he still has a path to the nomination by winning New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, Romney can keep toying with expectations in Iowa.

 

Iowa Pollster Unsure of Cain's Trajectory

In the roller coaster ride that is Herman Cain's presidential campaign, he emerged at the top of the well-regarded Iowa survey conducted by pollster Ann Selzer for The Des Moines Register -- only to crash into allegations of sexual harassment one day later.

While some Republican strategists are anticipating the bursting of the Cain bubble, Selzer said she can't predict how the unfolding scandal will affect his popularity. "We don't have any idea,'' she said.

"We couldn't find any vulnerabilities for Herman Cain, like we found with the other candidates,'' she said. "He just looked solid. Everybody likes him...If you were working for his campaign, this was exactly the poll you would want to see.''

Still, Selzer cautioned that at this time four years ago, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani were leading in Iowa. Mike Huckabee, then at 12 percent, went on to win the caucus. "People think it's late, but this is a protracted process and then it gets intense very quickly,'' Selzer said.

AFP pounds Obama over Solyndra

Americans For Prosperity, the conservative organization bankrolled by the petroleum-loving Koch brothers, says it is launching a $2.4 million ad campaign in Florida and other states condemning President Obama for awarding half a billion "green'' economic stimulus dollars to a solar panel company that has gone bankrupt.

Republicans are seeking White House subpoenas as part of an investigation into the company, Solyndra. Click here to watch the ad.

The GOP is increasingly framing the company's failures as a symbol of the administration's misguided economic policy.

Ignoring advice, Bachmann hires in SC

Two weeks after Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann's staff in New Hampshire up and quit, she is announcing a seven-member team in South Carolina headed by Ron Thomas, a former political director of the state party.

Former Bachmann advisors like Ed Rollins and Ed Goeas have urged Bachmann to focus exclusively on Iowa, where she won the state party's straw poll in August and subsequently dropped to the bottom of the polls. Iowa's Jan. 3 caucus is the first nominating contest, and political strategists are skeptical she can continue her campaign if she doesn't place at the top.

But her campaign manager, Keith Nahigian, said at Monday's National Journal 2012 Election Preview that the campaign was not "one-state only.''

"We're positioned in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida,'' he said. "It's kind of an odd question we get more than others.''

Ex-Clinton Hand Gives Cain Some Advice

While the sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain are drawing some comparisons between him and Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, there's also Bill Clinton.

A woman named Gennifer Flowers, you'll recall, claimed having an affair with Clinton as he was poised to win the New Hampshire primary in 1992. To quash the damaging story line, Clinton and wife, Hillary, appeared on CBS's "60 Minutes." You know, I'm not sitting here - some little woman standing by my man like Tammy Wynette,'' Hillary Clinton famously said. Her husband went on to win the presidency.

Democratic consultant Chris Lehane, who worked on the Clinton campaign back then and went on to serve in the administration, said Cain needs to be careful about his initial response. In public appearances and nationally televised interviews on Monday, Cain categorically denied that he had ever sexually harassed employees, but his story seemed change as to whether he was aware of any legal settlements.

"He drew a pretty specific line in the sand, so his candidacy will rise or fall on whether than information is sustainable in the long haul,'' Lehane said. "A lot of times, people make mistakes in situations like these in that they take a position that ends up imploding. Then they are stuck with that, along with having lied to the public.''  

As for whether Cain's wife of 43 years will be standing by her man, he said Monday that she would be giving an "exclusive'' interview but wouldn't be a frequent presence on the campaign trail.

Cain Hasn't Canceled

Herman Cain arrived on Monday at the American Enterprise Institute for a 9 a.m. talk about his economic plan. 

Ethanol industry takes aim at Perry

Rick Perry has never pretended to be a friend to the ethanol industry.

In 2008, he urged the Bush administration to roll back the so-called "ethanol mandate'' which requires the federal government to annually boost biofuel production, mainly through corn-based ethanol. When he entered the race in August, renewable energy lobbyists said they would wait and see whether he would strike a different tone as a presidential candidate.

Well, now they've waited and seen, and they don't like it. The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association put out a statement today that calls his oil-heavy energy plan "a one-two punch in Iowa's economic gut.'' It also assails the television ad he is running in Iowa that promotes oil and natural gas.

"When Gov. Perry entered the presidential race, Iowa's renewable fuels community said it would keep an open mind and not hold past actions by the Governor in his state role against him,'' said Walt Wendland, president of the association. "But we also noted it would be important going forward to determine if Perry is running for President of the United States or President of Texas.  Unfortunately, that answer seems to be leaning heaving toward Texas.''

While the ethanol issue doesn't seem to have the same potency in presidential politics that it used to, Perry needs all the friends he can get in Iowa, where Mitt Romney and Herman Cain lead the polls.

Imagine How Rick Santorum Feels

Pity Rick Santorum. Been campaigning his Pennsylvania heart out in Iowa for months, only to be shown up in the polls by Herman Cain, who has visited only once since the August straw poll.

Still, Santorum keeps showing Iowa the love. Today he announced a whirlwind tour of no less than 29 stops -- 29 stops!-- between Friday and the Iowa Republican Party's Reagan Dinner the following Thursday.

He's close to fulfilling his promise to visit all 99 counties. God Bless.

Cain Skipping Iowa GOP Dinner

In another sign he doesn't play by the rules, Herman Cain is not expected at the Iowa Republican Party's Reagan dinner on Nov. 4. "Until I hear otherwise, he is not attending,'' said the chairman of Cain's campaign in Iowa, Steve Grubbs.

Cain has managed to perform a hat trick so far in that he's risen to the top of the polls in Iowa without spending a lot of time in a state where voters pride themselves on looking candidates in the eye. More than once. As GOP strategist/Cain critic Karl Rove put it, "If I see your television ad before you've been in my community, you're a hot dog.''

Will be interesting to see how impatient Republican activists at the dinner are getting with Cain.

Mitt Romney is the other big-name candidate who will be a no-show, but that doesn't come as much of a surprise since he's trying not to raise expectations too high for the Jan. 3 caucus.

Cain's absence may have something to do with his participation that same day in the Americans for Prosperity "Defending the Dream American Summit'' in Washington. Cain has close ties to the tea party group bankrolled by the Koch family's corporate empire.

The Great Funny Bone Defense in the 2012 Campaign

It appears to be catching on as a strategy for Republican presidential candidates who step in it: Blame the American voters for lacking a funny bone.

Herman Cain tried the tactic after recently suggesting that he would put up an electrified fence along the Mexican border. Awww, that was just a "joke'' he said later. "I did it  in jest,'' he protested. "America needs to get a sense of humor,'' he said. What's wrong with you people?

Now it's Rick Perry playing the comic after he suggested uncertainty about whether President Obama is an American citizen. He later explained it was "fun to poke" at the president. Still on the defensive, he said , "It's fun to...you know...lighten up a little bit.''

With employment at 9.3 percent, are voters in the mood to laugh? The missteps by Perry and Cain say a lot more about their lack of discipline than they do about America's sense of humor.