2012 Decoded

Biden Plays Attack Dog on Bain

Wed, 16 May 2012 16:09:59 GMT

For the first time, Vice President Joe Biden is expected to take up a leading attack against presumptive nominee Mitt Romney in the general election: Romney's record at the private equity firm Bain Capital.

A manufacturing plant in Youngstown, Ohio will offer the optics for today's assault on Romney's practice of taking over struggling companies and in some cases, walking away with multimillion-dollar profits while the employees got sacked. In other cases (frequently overlooked by Obama's campaign), the companies thrived.

The role of the vice president as attack dog is well-established, and Biden's speech is a reminder of one of President Obama's key advantages until Romney picks a running mate. The president has a wing man; Romney does not.

"The mechanics of campaigning mean that the vice president commands the attention of whatever media market he is in, so today he'll be saturating a battleground state like Ohio,'' said Mike Feldman, who worked for Vice President Al Gore. "That is an asset the Obama campaign can deploy that Romney can't yet.''

Biden, one of four children in an Irish Catholic family and raised in Scranton, Pa., and Wilmington, Del., also carries more street cred with white, blue-collar workers than his boss. Biden can connect his life story with the experiences of the workers who lost their jobs under the Bain and with his Rust Belt audience.

According to excerpts of his remarks released by the campaign, Biden will focus on GST Steel, a mill in Kansas City taken over by Bain in 1993 that is also the focus of new television ads aired by the Obama campaign and the Priorities USA super PAC.

Romney's Targeted Deficit Messaging

Wed, 16 May 2012 14:50:48 GMT

Updated 12:00 p.m.

If unemployment was the only factor driving this presidential election, Mitt Romney would not be spending much time campaigning in Iowa, where the state's agricultural economy is relatively healthy, and the state boasts a 5.2 percent unemployment rate, the lowest for any battleground state.

But spending and debt are big issues in the American heartland, too. And that's why Romney spent time on the trail in Des Moines Tuesday, with a speech decrying excessive government spending.

Concern over federal spending is what drove the tea party movement into existence in 2009, and it's an issue that hasn't gone away in 2012. It's what's driving Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's momentum in next month's gubernatorial recall, with a deficit-conscious GOP base showing high levels of enthusiasm. (It's also an effective message with independents: Check out this new ad from Republican New Mexico Senate candidate Heather Wilson that's focused squarely on the debt, deficit and spending -- in a Democratic-leaning state.)

When pollsters ask voters what their most important issue is, the catch-all "jobs and the economy" comes first. But the number of voters naming the deficit rose in 2010 and has remained largely constant, and it's an issue that's driving conservatives to the polls. It's also a way for Romney to criticize the president on the economy in states that haven't suffered the brunt of the downturn.

New Hampshire is another state with a solid economy, but one receptive to Romney's small-government messaging. Indeed, the RNC held a conference call today, featuring former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu and former New Hampshire Rep. Jeb Bradley, decrying Obama's record on debt and deficits. Obama may be leading in early Granite State polls, but the Romney campaign is optimistic about their chances there, hoping to take advantage of the state's "live free or die" sentiment.

New Presidential Polls Puncture Conventional Wisdom

Tue, 15 May 2012 12:51:12 GMT

Narratives can be stubborn things. For most of this election, President Obama has been cast as the more likable candidate, while Mitt Romney has been stereotyped as the candidate likely to pander. But two new polls show that those perceptions may be off-base.

The latest USA Today/Gallup poll shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, it's Romney that has an edge over Obama on personal favorability. Romney's favorable/unfavorable rating is 50/41, an edge over the president's 52/46 score. It's proof that favorability is a volatile data point, especially when it comes to a lesser-known presidential challenger.

While political junkies are tracking every move of the candidates, most Americans are just beginning to tune in to the campaign coverage, and forming their opinions of Romney. (It's a big reason why Team Obama went up so early with a two-minute ad trying to cast Romney's record at Bain in the most unfavorable light possible.)

Meanwhile, the CBS/New York Times survey showed that voters overwhelmingly believe that President Obama decided to come out in favor of gay marriage for political reasons, and not out of principle. Two-thirds of those said Obama made the decision "mostly for political decisions" with just 24 percent saying "because he thinks it's right." This, as the president's re-election team has cast his decision as a historic one that took much political courage.

In Commencement Speech Face-Off, Obama The Winner

Mon, 14 May 2012 19:53:39 GMT

Barack Obama's commencement address at Barnard College confirms at least one thing: The Democratic president - shockingly - has locked up the vote among students at a women's liberal arts school in New York City.

(PICTURES: Political Commencement Speeches)

Barnard students on Monday transformed their graduation ceremony into a campaign rally for the sitting president, showering Obama's speech with applause and cheers while he touted his administration's female-friendly accomplishments. It was almost surprising they didn't start chanting the president's signature slogan, "Yes we can!" when he walked away from the podium.

That Obama was well-received at the liberal-friendly school, of course, was expected, particularly after embracing same-sex marriage last week. But his reception nonetheless represents a telling contrast from the one his opponent, Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney, received Saturday when he delivered the commencement address at the evangelical Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. Both schools are representative of each man's political base - for Obama, college-educated women and youths, for Romney, socially conservative Christians.

Obama At Barnard: A Speech for November, Not the Ages

Mon, 14 May 2012 19:28:28 GMT

There are times when presidents speak to the world and make history with commencement addresses. John F. Kennedy announcing the opening of test ban treaty talks at American University June 10, 1963. Lyndon B. Johnson proclaiming the Great Society at the University of Michigan May 22, 1964. Ronald Reagan rallying a generation and announcing the West will "transcend communism" as "some bizarre chapter in human history" at the University of Notre Dame May 17, 1981. Bill Clinton launching a "national conversation" about race at the University of California at San Diego June 14, 1997. And George W. Bush outlining the Bush Doctrine and telling the nation how he would conduct the war on terror at West Point June 1, 2002.

(PICTURES: Political Commencement Speeches for the Class of 2012)

Then there are times when presidents speak to constituency groups and try to make political hay; times like Monday when President Obama addressed the graduates of Barnard College in New York City.

Romney Gets Facts Wrong on Gay Adoption

Mon, 14 May 2012 18:23:57 GMT

When Republican presumptive nominee Mitt Romney suggested he was in favor of gay adoption and then quickly backtracked, it was widely reported as yet another flip-flop by the former Massachusetts governor.

But Romney also got his facts wrong when he said, "I simply acknowledge the fact that gay adoption is legal in all states but one.''

Not even close. According to the Human Rights Campaign, which tracks state laws relating to gay rights, the District of Columbia and just 18 states -- Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington -- allow joint adoption by same-sex couples. Same-sex couples have successfully petitioned to adopt in some jurisdictions in Colorado and Minnesota.

Florida's ban on gay adoption was overturned in 2010 after a foster parent and his partner petitioned to adopt two boys that had been in their care for six years.

Romney's mistake reflects his sometimes-awkward efforts to position himself as someone who is conservative enough for Republican voters but not too conservative for independents and Democrats.

UPDATE from the campaign:

Only one state - Mississippi - explicitly bars same-sex adoption by statute. Miss. Code Sec. 93-17-3(b). Utah is frequently cited as another state that bars same-sex adoption, but that prohibition applies to any cohabitation relationship involving persons of any gender who are not married. And, regardless, the point Gov. Romney is making is that this is a state issue, which is what he thinks it should be.

Bain Capital: Obama's Great White, Blue-Collar Hope

Mon, 14 May 2012 16:44:02 GMT

The fight for Joe the Plumber is alive and well.

Barack Obama is targeting white, blue-collar voters - who largely eluded him in 2008 and were personified by the aforementioned John McCain supporter -- in a powerful new ad airing in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Virginia.

The hunt for the white, blue-collar vote continues to be one of the biggest challenges for President Obama, adding to the considerable pressure on his campaign to pump up turnout among educated and minority voters. A recent Gallup poll found Romney with a whopping lead over Obama among white voters without a post-graduate education, 56 to 34 percent. Recent Quinnipiac surveys in Ohio and Pennsylvania found Obama trailing by eight and nine percentage points, respectively, among white voters without college degrees.

So how does the Obama campaign persuade these working-class voters to reconsider the president? By trashing presumptive nominee Mitt Romney as a greedy corporate titan who profited on the backs of middle-class workers.

Political Hardball on Mother's Day: Why Not?

Sun, 13 May 2012 18:27:49 GMT

It's a given that politicians will try to exploit Mother's Day. The only questions are how, and how much you can stomach. That depends on whether treacle or realpolitik is more to your taste.

Why Liberty Won't Host Romney's 'Sister Souljah' Moment

Thu, 10 May 2012 19:04:10 GMT

To borrow a convenient word from President Obama, the process of running for the White House is evolutionary in nature: A candidate must convince their base to like them, then they must evolve to appeal to a wider audience (Etch A Sketches not included). One milepost along the traditional route a candidate takes toward the middle is a moment of putting public distance between himself and his party's most extreme supporters.

In 1992, Bill Clinton accomplished that in a speech to the Rainbow Coalition when he criticized an interview hip hop artist Sister Souljah gave to the Washington Post, in which she made racially-charged comments. George W. Bush had a similar moment in 1999, when he used the title of a Robert Bork tome to distance himself from the extreme religious right. Then-candidate Barack Obama contended with a more personal issue when he gave a speech on race in America; part of that speech was critical of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama's own (now former) pastor, and Wright's statements about the relationships between blacks and whites.

Now that he's sewed up the Republican presidential nomination, we can start looking for Mitt Romney's Sister Souljah moment. Romney has passed on other potential Sister Souljah moments, first during the Sandra Fluke controversy -- as my colleague John Aloysius Farrell pointed out -- and again this week when an audience member at one of his town hall meetings said Obama should be tried for treason.

The next opportunity for Romney to put distance between himself and his party's farthest-right base will come this weekend, when he delivers a commencement address at Jerry Falwell's Liberty University.

But Romney isn't likely to make his stand on Saturday -- and the very fact that he's giving Liberty's commencement address hints that he has to keep sewing before he can rend.

Minorities and Gay Marriage: It's Evolving

Thu, 10 May 2012 17:03:56 GMT

One potential complication for President Obama's embrace of gay marriage is that minority voters at the core of the modern Democratic electoral coalition have usually resisted the idea more than whites. But that gap is narrowing-driven mostly by the same process of shifting generational attitudes evident among whites.

In the latest Pew Research Center measure on gay marriage from April, for instance, attitudes toward gay marriage converged among whites and non-whites: in both groups, 47 percent supported it, and 43 percent opposed it. In both communities that represented enormous movement from as recently as 2004, when President George W. Bush's re-election campaign encouraged state-ballot initiatives to ban gay marriage as a means of mobilizing conservative voters. At that point, in Pew polling just 31 percent of whites and non-whites alike supported gay marriage. Through 2010, support grew more rapidly for whites than non-whites, Pew found, but in the past two years, the minority numbers have increased more quickly, producing the intersection evident in the latest survey. (Gallup Polling also shows that attitudes toward gay marriage have converged in the white and minority communities, with each group divided about in half over the question.)

Democrats and Charlotte: Far From a Perfect Match

Thu, 10 May 2012 17:00:35 GMT

Democrats who already were queasy about the site of their national convention could be excused after Tuesday's election in North Carolina if they asked, "Tell me again just why we're going to Charlotte this year?" In fact, many Democrats privately are asking exactly that after the state's voters overwhelmingly approved a measure outlawing not just same-sex marriage -- which already was illegal in North Carolina -- but also any form of civil unions. Almost immediately after the vote, more than 20,000 people signed a "move the convention" petition being pushed by a New York group called Gay Marriage USA. And Twitter accounts lit up with hundreds of angry tweets demanding the party pull out of Charlotte.

Obama's High-Risk, High-Reward Gamble on Gay Marriage

Thu, 10 May 2012 12:57:07 GMT

Make no mistake: President Obama took a significant risk when he decided to come out, publicly, in favor of gay marriage on Wednesday.

Last night's network newscasts and today's newspapers featured anecdotes from African-American and Hispanic supporters upset about the decision, with some threatening to withhold support. Undecided working-class whites may also be all but a lost cause after the president's decision, even as Mitt Romney's privileged background turns them off, too.

(RELATED: Timeline of Obama's Positions on Gay Marriage)

But with risk comes reward. The intangible of showing leadership on an issue can provide hidden long-term benefits, as the track record of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie shows. He has used the bully pulpit to urge reforms on state entitlement spending. Initially, it looked like a big-time political loser, given New Jersey's Democratic tilt and significant labor constituency. Ultimately, it was a conservative-base pleaser, but it's paid off beyond the base. Now he's one of the most popular governors in the country.

(RELATED: Where Is Gay Marriage Legal?)

Gay marriage provides Obama with a similar opportunity. He's coming out ahead on an issue and positioned himself where the public seems to be headed, even if they're not there yet. His base of young voters and college-educated whites is largely behind him, and he needs their support to win. At a time when the president is looking to tout accomplishments, gay rights are an area where he can now proudly plant his flag. And he's putting Romney on the defensive, underscoring his campaign's current message that Romney is stuck in the past.

For Romney, Words of Wisdom on Winning Michigan

Thu, 10 May 2012 00:26:04 GMT

We have good news and bad news for you, Mitt Romney.

The bad news: You're not going to win the auto bailout argument. The good news: Despite your alarming indifference to that reality, you're better positioned than many pundits realize to steal Michigan's coveted 16 electoral votes away from President Obama this November.

It won't be easy. As a matter of fact, you'll probably have to run a near-perfect campaign if you hope to paint your home state red for the first time in a presidential election since 1988. But it's possible, considering your connections to the state, your organization on the ground and your moderate profile. Yes, it's possible, but only on one condition: Stop talking about the damn auto bailout.

On Gay Marriage Politics, Obama Can Find Silver Lining

Wed, 09 May 2012 21:48:49 GMT

The politics of President Obama's decision to publicly embrace same-sex marriage are murky at best.

North Carolina's vote Tuesday to ban gay marriage, as I wrote, sends an ominous signal to the White House that a state central to Obama's re-election strategy strongly opposes his new policy. And a raft of other states, including key battlegrounds like Virginia and Ohio, already have similar constitutional prohibitions in place. The incumbent will have to fight for every vote there, making any deliberate decision to put himself on the wrong side of popular opinion dangerous.

Obama's Gay Marriage Leap of Faith

Wed, 09 May 2012 21:14:55 GMT

President Obama's endorsement of gay marriage undoubtedly reflects a personal evolution in his thinking, as he's said.

But his decision also reflects a hard-headed acknowledgement of the changing nature of the Democratic electoral coalition. Indeed, historians may someday view Obama's announcement Wednesday as a milestone in the evolution of his party's political strategy, because it shows the president and his campaign team are increasingly comfortable responding to the actual coalition that elects Democrats today-not the one that many in the party remember from their youth.

Obama's senior advisers see the announcement as essentially a political wash, although polls now consistently show more Americans support than oppose gay marriage. In its latest national measure, the Pew Research Center found in April that a 47 percent to 43 percent plurality of Americans back same-sex marriage. Other recent national surveys, including those by Gallup and the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, have found majority or plurality support for the idea.