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2012 Decoded Blog

Super Tuesday

« Speaker John Boehner | 2012 Decoded Home | Archives | Tax Reform »
Jackie Koszczuk

The Case for Gingrich Staying in the Race

By Jackie Koszczuk
March 8, 2012 | 1:14 AM
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Rick Santorum's aides and surrogates hit the news-talk circuit on Wednesday like Rush Limbaugh set loose on a buffet table. They were noisy and everywhere, almost clamoring in unison about the need for Newt Gingrich to get out the contest for the Republican nomination in order to let Santorum have a head-to-head contest with Mitt Romney in upcoming primaries. Conservative flame-keeper Richard Viguerie lent some dignity to the proceedings by weighing in with a calm analysis on his website calling on Gingrich to stand down and let Santorum carry the right's torch into battle with Romney.

It was a daylong exercise in futility of course. Given Gingrich's "gargantuan ego" as former Clintonite Dee Dee Myers put it on MSNBC, he is highly unlikely to end his presidential campaign now. Plus, the former House speaker just clocked a huge victory in Georgia, the most populous Southern state outside of Florida. Even though it was the only state in his win column on Super Tuesday - an achievement further discounted by it being his home state -- a big victory nevertheless hardly puts a candidate in a giving-up sort of mood.

But there's another reason for Gingrich not to hang up his cleats just yet.


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Jackie Koszczuk

Virginia's Message for Mitt Romney

By Jackie Koszczuk
March 7, 2012 | 12:23 AM
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Virginia's role on Super Tuesday was largely ignored on the basis that there was no real contest there - Mitt Romney faced neither his biggest rival for the nomination, Rick Santorum, nor his Southern regional nemesis, Newt Gingrich. Weak organization kept both Santorum and Gingrich from qualifying for the ballot.

But the exit polls for Virginia are more revealing than the lopsided win for Romney indicates. They show Romney being forced to share roughly 40 percent of the Republican primary vote with Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, the fourth candidate in the race who has virtually no chance of winning the nomination.

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John Aloysius Farrell

Those Who Know Romney Love Him Best

By John Aloysius Farrell
March 6, 2012 | 8:22 PM
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The independent-minded Republican voters of Massachusetts stuck by their guy Tuesday. And in the network exit polls, we got a glimpse of the voters who launched Mitt Romney's presidential hopes by electing him their governor.

They don't much like the mandatory health care law he signed into law. That is interesting. Some 48 percent of the voters in the GOP primary said that Romneycare went too far.

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Tags: 

Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Super Tuesday, Tea Party, Vermont
Major Garrett

Two Sets of GOP Voters: Rationals and Notionals

By Major Garrett
March 6, 2012 | 8:24 AM
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There is a way to think about the up-and-down GOP nomination fight that at least partially explains its volatility and the seemingly endless array of short-lived challengers to front-runner Mitt Romney as well as Romney's surprising resilience.

It's been the battle between the rationals and the notionals.

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John Aloysius Farrell

Cantor and the GOP Need Romney to Close the Deal

By John Aloysius Farrell
March 4, 2012 | 11:51 AM
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House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's decision to endorse Mitt Romney is a certified big deal. The Virginia Republican is no highborn member of the Washington establishment - he's the GOP House leader with the closest ties to the Tea Party movement and the huge group of representatives it elected in 2010.

This was no snow-maned party elder backing Romney on national television - it was a conservative young gun.

Why Romney? Why now? Cantor said on NBC's Meet the Press that Romney's "bold pro-growth, pro-jobs plan for the future" is what sold him. According to Cantor's aides, Romney's comprehensive detailing of his economic proposals showed the majority leader how much the two men had in common. They spoke on the telephone last week, and then there was Cantor on Sunday morning, telling the world that he has cast his Virginia primary ballot for Mitt.

But then there is this: Cantor knows that the Republican House majority, which he's accountable for preserving, will be far more secure if the GOP can wrap up its divisive primary season and fall in line behind the presidential nominee.

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Tags: 

Eric Cantor, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Obama, presidential race, Republican Party, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Tea Party
Ronald Brownstein

Tennessee Also Shows Santorum's Populist Opportunity

By Ronald Brownstein
February 27, 2012 | 12:33 PM
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A new poll in Tennessee underscores the stakes for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in tomorrow's Michigan primary.

Like the Quinnipiac University Ohio survey released on Monday, the Vanderbilt Poll showed Santorum marshaling powerful support in Tennessee from the key elements in the GOP's populist wing- particularly tea party supporters and evangelical Christians, while remaining competitive with (or even leading) Romney among more managerial voters. Tennessee, along with Oklahoma and Georgia, loom as, in effect, the top second-tier of contests on March 6, behind Ohio, which is likely to hold center stage on that day. With polls in the GOP race gyrating wildly all year, the results in Michigan are likely to cast a long shadow over those contests.

The Tennessee survey, conducted from February 16 to 22 for Vanderbilt University's Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, showed Santorum leading Romney overall by a resounding 38 percent to 20 percent, with Ron Paul (15 percent) and Newt Gingrich (13 percent) lagging. Santorum's lead is grounded in big advantages among groups at the GOP's ideological vanguard. Three-fourths of Tennessee voters in the survey identified as born-again Christians and they prefer Santorum over Romney by 39 percent to 15 percent. Among the nearly two-thirds of likely primary voters who say they support the tea party's ideas, Santorum led Romney even more decisively-43 percent to 13 percent.

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Ronald Brownstein

Santorum's Working Class Opportunity

By Ronald Brownstein
February 17, 2012 | 4:02 PM
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The Michigan primary will test one of the most common- but as yet unproven - assumptions in the Republican presidential race: the expectation that Rick Santorum will be a strong candidate for blue-collar voters.

From the moment Santorum emerged as a serious contender in Iowa, many analysts (present company included) have assumed he would run well among the growing ranks of non-college white voters in the Republican electorate. On a policy level, Santorum stresses his determination to rebuild the nation's manufacturing capacity and laments the decline of upward mobility for working-class Americans in language rare among Republicans. On a personal level, Santorum highlights his years growing up in Western Pennsylvania steel country, and his grandfather's experience as a miner; he also projects a regular-guy aura that contrasts with rival Mitt Romney's vast wealth.

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John Aloysius Farrell

Mitt Romney's Nearly Mainly Almost Certain Nomination

By John Aloysius Farrell
February 8, 2012 | 7:31 AM
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The Nearly Mainly Almost Certain Nominee of the Republican Party won't lose much sleep over last night's unfortunate results in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

Yes, it was embarassing for Mitt Romney to have to come onstage in Denver, the state he thought he had the best chance of winning, to offer congratulations to Rick Santorum (the victor of the Iowa caucuses), who had just whipped him again, in three contests.


Read More »

Tags: 

MItt Romney; Rick Santorum; Newt Gingrich; Barack Obama; Colorado; Minnesota; Missouri; Republican nomination; 2012 presidential campaign
Ron Fournier

President Newt? Not Likely But Scary to GOP

By Ron Fournier
January 21, 2012 | 7:00 PM
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Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich finished an astonishing comeback Saturday night to defeat front-runner Mitt Romney in South Carolina, plunging the Republican Party into a wrenching and potentially lengthy period of soul-searching: Can either of these jokers beat President Obama?

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Tags: 

Paul, romney, Santorum, south carolina
Major Garrett

Romney's 1994 Problem

By Major Garrett
December 12, 2011 | 2:44 PM
  • Leave a Comment
To anyone who thought GOP front-runner Newt Gingrich attacked Mitt Romney Saturday by joking he was only one loss to Sen. Edward Kennedy away from "career politician" status, think again.

Compared to what Gingrich could have said, that was no attack. It was practically a Cinnabon served with cold milk.


Read More »

Tags: 

1994, abortion, Barack Obama, California primary, Cinnabon, Contract With America, Edward Kennedy, Gingrich, Hillary Clinton, Reagan-Bush, Romney
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